OnchainValue 🍀

This is it. Everything learned spending millions on longevity. From: Your Immortal Unc and Auntie. To: Our Immortal nieces and nephews. 0. Sleep is the world's most powerful drug. 1. Be in your bed for 8 hours 2. Same bedtime every night, any time before midnight 3. Don’t eat right before bed 4. Calm foods for dinner 5. No screens 1 hour before bed 6. Avoid added sugar (be aware it’s in everything) 7. Avoid all things in an American convenience store 8. Avoid fried foods 9. Shoes off at the door 10. Eat whole foods, particularly veggies fruits nuts legumes berries 11. Walk a little after meals or air squats 12. Get your heart rate high routinely 13. Lift heavy things 14. Stretch daily 15. Water pik, floss, brush, tongue scrape, morning and night 16. Make an effort to drink water 17. Get sunlight when you wake up (UV is low) 18. Protect skin in midday sun 19. Stand up straight 20. See at least one friend once a week 21. Avoid plastic where you can (in all things) 22. Circulate air in rooms 23. When stressed, breathe, learn to calm your body 24. Go to the dentist 25. Avoid sitting for long times 26. Protect your hearing, the world is too loud 27. Alcohol is bad for you 28. Finish coffee before noon 29. Avoid bright lights after sunset 30. If obese, look into a GLP 31. Sleep in a cold room 32. Texting while driving is dangerous 33. Turn off all notifications 34. Limit social media use 35. Don’t smoke anything 36. If you struggle to sleep, read a physical book before bed 37. 1 hour before bed have a calm wind down routine: bath, read, light walk, listen to music 38. The body is a clock and loves routine. Have a daily morning and evening schedule. 39. Avoid long distance travel where you can 40. Baby steps first: incorporate new things slowly 41. Do less… most things don’t work. Bonus points if you get your blood checked. Start here, it will change your life.

1999 vs 2026 👀👀 Big if true.

Quote of the Day: "The game is the same. Tickers are different and players are different. If you learn the game you will be set for life." — @Qullamaggie

This long execution by Merritt serves as a Masterclass in Trade Management and Sequencing. By focusing on securing a great trade location, we put ourselves in a "position of strength" which helps us to shift our focus from trail stops or move to break-even as an emotional crutch to avoid discomfort (the noise of the tape) to a process-driven approach where constant analysis of variables takes place, using orderflow and market dynamics to drive conscious decisions rather than emotional reactions. Professionalism lies in rejecting those emotional crutches to instead trust the laws of Auction Market Theory. Mastery in trading isn't found in hyper-fixating on every tick; the real winning is in the waiting.

WHEN SHOULD A TRADER QUIT? The @Qullamaggie chapter of the upcoming Market Wizards book has been making the rounds. In it Kristjan discusses how he blew up multiple times. Many great traders have. But that begs one of the most important question of all: when should a trader quit? When should one persevere? Most traders fail, so how do you avoid sticking around forever if you don’t have what it takes?

Navigating All-Time Highs is less about chasing the extension and more about the discipline of waiting for established zones. When the indices reach uncharted territory, the professional edge lies in resisting FOMO and really focusing on participating only at the extremes of significant rotations - LIS Areas. One of our greatest advantages at Apteros is the universality of our framework. Markets are not limited to a single index; by applying our logic across different assets, volatilities, and price structures, we find opportunity where others only find noise. Mastery is found in the consistency of the process, regardless of the asset. Join a real prop desk: apterostrading.com

Think of it this way: There are a certain number of quality reps a trader needs to achieve to start to have mastery. The more poor/low quality reps you put in- the more you give in to those demons and fears- the more you stall progress of reaching that magic number of quality reps that get you to the finish line. Don't stall. Move forward one quality rep at a time.

Making a choice to work on the simple.... that's such an advanced trader thing...

If you are a trader, STOP trying to predict markets and stop making calls. Nobody cares. Be prepared for both sides. Have a plan everyday and execute it. That plan needs to be consistent, repeatable and scalable. Start with a myopic view on an intraday basis and look to widen your view when the price action has continuation.

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

For real, turn screens off 60 min before bed. I know it feels like death at first. Do it for a few days, and you’ll realize that it was slowly chipping away your sanity.

NOTES: PTJ on trading, investing, macro Core trading philosophy -You make the biggest money by riding a major trend for a very long time. -Trading is like boxing: most of the time you are jabbing, feeling out the market, waiting for a clean opening. -The real money comes from a few “knockout” opportunities. Examples: Bitcoin in 2020. Short two-year notes in 2022. Precious metals moves. Potential yen rally setup. Trader vs investor -Investors can win by believing in a long-term compounding story. -Buffett represents the ideal investor mindset: believe in America, tolerate 50% drawdowns, let compounding work. -PTJ says he envies that belief system but does not naturally have it. -His own approach is more trench warfare: daily, active, defensive, alpha-driven trading. -His fund reportedly had a negative correlation to the S&P 500, so he sees his returns as alpha, not beta. Compound interest -He now deeply respects Buffett as “the OG of compound interest.” -Buffett understood compounding at age nine. -PTJ says he underappreciated compounding for much of his own career. Charlie Munger’s key contribution: moving Buffett from cheap “50-cent dollars” toward great companies that compound. Risk management -Every great trader or investor is first and foremost a risk manager. -Liquidity is central: “You’re only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow.” -Seeing Brother Hunt go from one of the richest men in the world to nearly bankrupt after silver collapsed (within weeks) permanently shaped PTJ’s view. ->He learned never to trust any asset blindly. -Avoid being trapped in illiquid positions when volatility explodes. -AI worries him because the world is deploying it with little risk management despite huge tail risks. Market opportunities -Big opportunities usually come from: -Markets getting too carried away. -An imbalance lasting too long. -A central bank doing something wrong. -A government doing something wrong. -Crowded complacency. -An undervalued, underowned asset finally getting a catalyst. Catalyst framework His ideal macro trade seems to need: 1. Something underowned. 2. Something undervalued. 3. Something “way out of whack.” 4. Market complacency. 5. A catalytic moment. Example: yen. Yen is grossly undervalued. Japan has a huge positive net international investment position. Much of its foreign exposure is in the US and unhedged. ->A new dynamic, “Japan first” political leader could be the catalyst. (which just got elected. See Buffett major buys into this year) He compares potential currency appreciation to what happened under Reagan, Thatcher, or Trump-style leadership shifts. Example:2022 two-year note trade -He believed there was too much fiscal stimulus. Powell stayed too easy for too long. -Once Biden reappointed Powell, PTJ saw it as “go time” to short two-year notes. -The logic: the Fed would have to normalize policy. Bubbles and valuation Valuation matters. -Buying the S&P 500 at very high valuations historically leads to poor or negative 10-year returns. -He mentions an S&P P/E around 22 as historically dangerous for forward returns. -The S&P is excellent over 100 years, but that includes periods when valuations were extremely low. -Starting valuation drives long-term returns. -Today’s market is harder because valuations are high. -He sees public equities, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure as much more heavily owned than in 2007 to 2008. -Private equity exposure in institutional portfolios has risen materially, creating more illiquidity risk. Execution -Execution is about buying when there is fear and selling when there is euphoria. -“Am I buying when there’s blood on the ground?” -“Am I selling when there’s complete elation?” -Great execution requires intense focus on intraday highs/lows and pain points. -You need a plan before the market opens. -The plan should be self-executing when volatility hits. -Being two or three hours late can be materially costly. -Information overload damages execution quality. Information overload -Modern trading is harder because there is too much incoming information. -Emails, news, and signals distract from observing price, fear, greed, and positioning. -In the pit-trading era, he could focus more purely on market behavior. -Today, macro traders must fight distraction to maintain execution quality. Traits of great traders -He thinks great traders are about 70% born, 30% made. -Key traits:Type A personality. -Intense curiosity. -Love of competition. -Love of games. -Natural probability thinking. -Emotional resilience. -Ability to act under maximum fear or greed. ->Trading is another form of probability theory. Lessons from Eli Tullis -Eli was excellent at sensing maximum fear and maximum greed. -He waited patiently for emotional extremes. -After a huge loss in cotton, Eli remained composed and confident. -Lesson: when things get brutal, you cannot emotionally collapse. -You must wear confidence and believe you can come back. Daily process -He plans around the US open and close. -He reserves time before and after the close to map out the next day. -He thinks ahead to Tokyo, Hong Kong, and London. -He wakes during the night to watch London open and do analytical work. -The rhythm is constant because macro is global. -Communication as trading skill -Journalism-style writing helped him as a macro trader. Put the conclusion first. -Identify who, what, where, when, why, and how. Rank information by importance. -Trading requires principal component analysis of many variables. -The most important variable changes over time. -The trader’s job is to know what matters most right now for a given instrument. Macro framework -Markets are interconnected capital flows. -Trading means understanding global flows and positioning across asset classes. -Central banks and governments often create the biggest dislocations. -The best trades often arise when policy error meets positioning imbalance. -You must constantly ask: what is actionable now? AI and markets -AI is an exogenous risk variable. -He sees AI as a major tail risk because it is being built with a “build, break, iterate” model. -That model works for ordinary technology, but not when the “break” could cause catastrophic social damage. -He believes AI should be regulated. -He specifically argues all AI-generated content should be watermarked. -AI could cause major workforce disruption within a few years. -From a risk-manager’s lens, AI is currently under-managed. Passion and longevity -Trading keeps his mind sharp. -He sees trading as mental therapy. -He wants to keep working because “you retire, you die.” -He still trades because he loves markets, competition, and the ability to make money to give away. Best distilled PTJ trading rules -Ride big trends as long as possible. -Protect liquidity above everything. -Never trust an asset blindly. -Be a risk manager first. -Wait for extreme fear or extreme greed. -Look for underowned, undervalued, complacent setups with catalysts. -Policy errors create big trades. -Valuation matters, especially for long-term equity returns. -Have a plan before volatility arrives. -Execute when others freeze. -Focus on what matters most right now. -Avoid information overload. -Trading is probability, not certainty.

HOWARD MARKS ON THE MOST EXPENSIVE LESSON OF SELLING TOO EARLY: "Amazon was $90 in 1999. When the tech bubble burst, it went to $6. It was down 93%." "What if you were smart enough to buy it at $6? Would you have held to $12? What about $60? You've made 10 times your money, would you sell?" "What about when it got to $600? You made 100 times your money. Most people would sell." "At the time I wrote it, Amazon was $3,300. If you sold at $600, you left 85% of the money on the table." "Buffett says he made all his money on 12 ideas. Charlie Munger said he made all his money on 4. The big mistake is getting off too soon."

@J4K3_NFT @gkisokay We love $SANTA

@gkisokay @onchainvalue ... is the ticker still $SANTA? 🙃😭

$ETH ATH: ✅ $SANTA ATH: Coming 👀 Questflow Progress: Accelerating Sometimes the best opportunities hide in plain sight

Follow the money

If you fail once, twice, three times, it doesn't matter. Learn from your mistakes and push forward to VICTORY-the sweetest feeling there is!