Optimistic Gopher

@BenPennings Ben deliberately ignores that the the First Home Owners Grant was also introduced in 2000. $7k for existing, $14k for new. Given the Sydney median house price in 2000 was $300k and now about $1.8m, $14k in 2000, would be the equivalent of giving someone $84k for a deposit today.

Some data for the folk complaining about housing, capital gains changes and immigration at the same time! We have more homes per person than we used to but rich people like Pauline Hanson use CGT to hoard them and speculate while we pay.

@OMGTheMess My prediction is that if Albo and Chalmers get away with this budget and win the next election, they will bring taxing unrealised capital gains on shares. That is my rationale for the carve out. Easy to implement - No valuers needed, because the market has already done that.

You can still negatively gear shares Or buy an ETF

@TheKouk Unemployment rising. Inflation rising. The "misery index" is now into the 9's. Is this Jim Chalmers "remaking capitalism".

Barely 2 weeks from the RBA lifting interest rates to an equal 14 year high comes sorry news from the labour market. Employment down 19,000 in April, unemployment rate spiked to 4.5%, the highest since 2021... & this is before the effect of the 3 rates hikes so far this year impact. The risk is that we see unemployment at 5.5% this time next year with 5% close to a lay down misère. From the perspective of the labour market, the RBA has clearly over-tightened monetary policy - look at the weakening wages profile and now the deterioration in the labour market. Job vacancies are as sick as a dog. Surely the RBA can't be so misguided to hike rates again? youtube.com/watch?v=lO58Nt…

@TMFScottP Unemployment rising at the same time as the Government is running expansionary fiscal policy with budget deficits year after year. At the same time, inflation is on the rise. The misery index is now into the 9's.

A poor set of unemployment figures. Still low on a long-run historical average, but the direction of almost everything else is bad: - Unemployment rate up 0.2% to 4.5% - 18,000 jobs lost (recently, the rate went up, but jobs were still created) - Participation rate *fell*

@TMFScottP 😆 Yesterday it was "pretty ordinary" to question the CGT reforms. Today they are "puzzling". Tip: If your default response is to defend Labor, you'll end up looking silly.

This is the most puzzling part of the government's planned CGT changes. I'm supportive of a return to indexation, but I'm against abandoning the old averaging rule and setting a floor of 30% tax on all capital gains, regardless of the taxpayer's marginal tax rate.

@honmattkean "Climate action" in a country that produces 1% of global emissions is not only impossible, it's utterly absurd. Stop being a mathematics denier.

You can’t be a good economic manager in 2026 without being a climate realist. APRA’s modelling is clear: climate inaction means household incomes up to 20% lower, persistent inflation & higher interest rates. Ignore climate and you’ll pay for it. 🔥 theaustralian.com.au/nation/inactio…

@TMFScottP @BenME1990 How it's always been done, you give ministers an "efficiency dividend" that essentially says find 5 or 10% in savings. It's incredible that in the age of AI that the private sector can find efficiencies, by the public sector keeps growing.

@BenME1990 How would you do it, out of interest, while avoiding unintended outcomes?

I have no issue with the NSW Premier suggesting more should be done on income tax. And I agree (though the 'half the week' thing is factually incorrect). But unless he puts up savings offsets or other tax increases, it just means more government debt. And that's terrible.

@BukowskiDi25427 @SharazDavid @RichardYabsley If you're concerned about the corporatisation of property advertising platforms, wait until you see the corporatisation of the rental market. Not just apartment buildings, whole neighbourhoods. Started with build to rent incentives last year. These changes will turbo charge it.

@SharazDavid @RichardYabsley Ask any real estate agent what they think of REA. The big two supermarkets crush suppliers. REA crushes agents and vendors.

Why is Crikey the only media outlet calling this out? Australia has one of the most concentrated media markets in the world, dominated by ..... News Corp

@SharazDavid Yeah, nothing to do with broken promises. Those things never get reported. 🤡

@TMFScottP Nonsense. The CGT discount pegged to CPI is a reasonable reform. After that it should follow marginal tax rates. The minimum 30% regardless of other income is a blatant cash grab by a government that can't control its spending.

The blatant self-interest dressed up as national interest on NG and CGT is not surprising but pretty ordinary. Yes, there are some who genuinely think the changes aren't in the national interest... but they're the exception, not the rule. It's fair for asset owners to pay more

@sportzacct @F111RAF @LetSleepingDogz @JulianHillMP True . Dont forget it was also the first implementation of the first home owners grant. Relative to median house price, it would be the equivalent of getting between $30k and $60k today.

@F111RAF @LetSleepingDogz @JulianHillMP Cheap Chinese funny money, if you look at the graph, was the turbo charger that reset the game, certainly in Sydney

Australia’s tax system will be fairer, more productive and give young Australians a fair crack at buying a home #auspol

@JulianHillMP Because collecting more tax is always "more productive". #LeftyEconomics

@blowingtom2 😆 How many seats does Labor win without Green preferences?

I love this. What Angus is saying is that it will now take 3 parties of RWNJ’s not 2, to form a coalition to TRY and beat Labor at the next election. It’s like cookers unite. A new Marvel movie in the making

@ALeighMP scare tactics? Like mediscare? Hypocrite.

Predictable scare tactics: Labor introduces serious reform and the Liberals bring on a fear campaign. But if scare campaigns wrote the rules, Australia would never make the changes that widen opportunity and lift dynamism. ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/andr…

@AshPolitik "The cohort of people that are easily duped via scare campaigns and disinformation is astonishing." Hello? mediscare anyone?

Sometimes I think, Australia doesn't deserve change. The cohort of people that are easily duped via scare campaigns and disinformation is astonishing. The same whingers who say the government does nothing. From Gillard years, 2019 election, The Voice, now the 2026 budget. You all revert to primitive minded dark ages rather quickly.

@MarkBertolini3 @Lee_AnneWalker @SenKatyG But it isn't taxed at the marginal rate. The minimum marginal rate is zero. Then 17 % and then 30%. Why is CGT a minimum of 30%?

@optimistgopher @Lee_AnneWalker @SenKatyG Its an income and therefore taxable at the marginal rate, end of story.

What part of the bleeding obvious doesn’t the media understand?? #CGT As @SenKatyG repeatedly explains, Labor’s budget “removes distortions” created by John Howard in 1999 to skew wealth and make housing an investment rather than ‘roof over head’ for all. #abc730 #auspol

@cptnjamescook @angelar68197975 Exactly. Private equity backed "Corporate Landlords" are already a thing in the US. Not just units. Whole neighbourhoods. This is what Labor wants. It will lead to Big Super and Big Business being corporate landlords. They will in turn only utilise Union labour.

This doesn't solve the problem you think it solves. It just transfers the properties from mom-and-pop investors to bigger fish managing many properties. Your new competition gives less of a fuck about you than the old competition. They are more powerful, and incentivised to keep you as a renter not a buyer.

All average people want is a level playing field. Why should those who can afford three or five houses get a tax discount Why should average millennials have to compete with cashed up investors

@angelar68197975 Those who can afford 3 or 5 houses will simply buy 3 or 5 new houses and continue to get the discount.

‘But here is the kicker: rather than minimising intergenerational inequity, the negative gearing and CGT changes will actually entrench it. The rules Albanese used to build up his property portfolio, will be protected for people like him but denied to younger generations. Keating tried to remove negative gearing in the 80s; it resulted in a rental crisis and had to be wound back two years later. We’ve been around this mountain before, but sure, let’s do it again.’ Me for @SkyNewsAust #auspol