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@orange_pilld

bitcoin; trading; investing; options; dogs; steak; weight training; negronis;

Katılım Kasım 2021
377 Takip Edilen486 Takipçiler
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AD@orange_pilld·
I have been investing for over two decades and obviously, still keep learning from Mr Market every day.  Reflecting on a few things from the recent few years of bull run and the recent sell off /1
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Mario Tomic
Mario Tomic@mariotomich·
How long do you think it takes to get a transformation like this? For context, the before is ~200 lbs and the after is around ~170 lbs. 39yo, 5ft 10.
Mario Tomic tweet media
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AD@orange_pilld·
@cantonmeow You have your buyer staring at you…Faster!!
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Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
I'm working on a lecture course that I'll likely launch late 2026 with: - 30 lectures on how to approach the market - 30-35 lectures on why and how to use various technical analysis tools - 5 to 10 lectures of integrative concepts I'll be taking my time and getting it right.
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow

For those wondering how I did this Modified Schiff pitchfork for $KEEL $BITF, it's easy. I literally pick 3 points, and it does the rest.

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BTC Bro
BTC Bro@BTC_broo·
In hindsight, $MSTY hype was the top indicator.
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AD@orange_pilld·
@levelsio @nizbuilds Read what you wrote and then look at your profile pic 😂
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@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
@nizbuilds New generation of Singaporeans is lazy and doesn't care about quality or anything really Spiritually empty
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Micro2Macr0
Micro2Macr0@Micro2Macr0·
Making a pretty decent shift across the portfolio today. Exiting about a quarter of a million dollars in positions and moving that money elsewhere. I'll update subs when it's done.
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AD@orange_pilld·
@Dr_Crossroads There might not be a single happy shareholder who's bought after 2020, despite the fact that the stock has mostly traded at a massive premium. The only happy ones I am aware of are holders from 2019 or before.
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Crossroads
Crossroads@Dr_Crossroads·
$TSLA I've sold the last of my Tesla position. Tesla has been in a weird place for me for a while. I love the product. I am enamored with how amazing FSD (in a HW4 stack) is, and how excellent the vehicle is. My wife and I aren't likely to buy any vehicle that isn't a Tesla, and I'm already thinking of that nice upgrade (3-4 years from now) for my '22 Model 3. I also would love to own an Optimus at some point. I love the vision, the vertical integration, and wouldn't bet against Elon. Yet the stock is not the company. Tesla has always traded at a premium, but that premium is increasing over time. That's fine if it's in anticipation of significant future acceleration, but it's questionable when that happens. On the call, they stated, “over time, we expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits,” but were effusive on the dates. That's probably for the best, as Elon timelines usually need to be extended. Gross margins have improved, and the P/FCF looks like it's improving, but with the CapEx they're needing to do, this ratio will soon be negative. I don't mind buying a stock with extreme multiples, but I see easier opportunities with clearer runways for acceleration elsewhere. Tesla hasn't been a meaningful position for me for over a year, but I'm out for now. I'll still be rooting for the company (and shareholders) even while hoping the stock comes down to more reasonable levels where the R/R fits my portfolio better.
Crossroads tweet media
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Mambo Italiano
Mambo Italiano@mamboitaliano__·
“Europemaxxing” No doctors detected 👇
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AD@orange_pilld·
@Mangan150 @johncumbers PD,do you take this as well? Is this a good supplement in your opinon?
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John Cumbers
John Cumbers@johncumbers·
David Sinclair just revealed one of the biggest studies on nattokinase. A comprehensive Chinese study of 1,067 people found that nattokinase reversed cardiovascular disease by removing up to 95% of arterial plaque in one year. This supplement is an enzyme from fermented soybeans and costs almost nothing. Sinclair has been taking it daily for a couple of years. He measures his carotid artery with ultrasound and says there's no plaque buildup at all. Peter Diamandis takes it too. He believes you need at least 6,000 fibrinolytic units per day to reap the benefits. For context: • Statins cost hundreds per month and come with side effects. • Surgical interventions can cost thousands of dollars Nattokinase costs a fraction of both. Sinclair's caveat: "Do this with the knowledge of your physician." But the data exists. A study of over 1,000 people and up to 95% plaque removal in just 12 months. And the man whose lab is reversing aging takes it every day. — David Sinclair (@davidasinclair) on Peter Diamandis' (@PeterDiamandis) Moonshots podcast PS. David Sinclair is speaking at SynBioBeta on May 6th this year, discussing the science of slowing and reversing aging. If longevity is the world you're in, the investors, partners, and scientists shaping this space will be in the room. Grab your ticket in the comments below.
John Cumbers@johncumbers

The first human age-reversal trial is officially happening. But before the FDA cleared it, Harvard professor David Sinclair had to pull off a mice experiment most scientists thought was impossible: "These mice had their optic nerve regenerated. We were able to show that using [the information theory of aging] method we could cure blindness in animal for the first time." Since then, he also discovered you could treat and reverse diseases like Alzheimer's, multiple sclerosis, ALS, kidney disease and liver disease in mice too: “It's not just the eye that can get reversed and cured of diseases. It's seemingly every part of the body.” It's what he calls "a universal reset of the body." He confirmed his method also worked in monkeys. Now humans are next. The FDA just cleared the first age-reversal trial. Life Biosciences raised $80 million to make it happen. As he put it: "The eye is just the beginning. We believe we can treat every tissue—a whole body reset."

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AD@orange_pilld·
@dannycheng2022 I am sure you know that the MCDX from Homily is basically calculating relative strength of closing prices over a period and splitting the output into three bins dressed up as institutional vs retail flow.
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AD@orange_pilld·
Human emotions don't change and hence market cycles don't change either. In 2022 everyone called for Saylor getting margin called. 2024 followed. And we are back here again..and when it's go time, we will get a massive expansion of premium again with the bull mania. Rinse and repeat.
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Rob HODLs
Rob HODLs@RHodls·
I am not a $MSTR perma-bull. If during another Bitcoin bull run, the mNAV expands to over 3-4X, I’ll be selling out of my position and into Bitcoin (of course). 3-4X mNAV with a > million Bitcoin $MSTr treasury implies an unattainable amount of Bitcoin IMO. Buyers at that level will very likely to never reach their breakeven in terms of BTC/share. At 1.1x like today, I’ll be quickly compensated via BTC yield for the premium I pay. I suspect the next retail FOMO-induced rally, especially during a short squeeze, fundamentals go out the window. Don’t think in terms of share price. Think in terms of mNAV. Sell Over priced mNAV. Buy discount mNAV (~1.2X or below). That’s how I think about it.
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AD@orange_pilld·
@chad_ventures That system looks broken. Ichimoku, MA and VWAP is far more accurate
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AD@orange_pilld·
@r0ck3t23 Scammath track record is like Cramer. Remember that.
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Dustin
Dustin@r0ck3t23·
Chamath Palihapitiya just described what happens to the entire tech sector the moment OpenAI and Anthropic go public. Not a correction. A verdict. Chamath: “Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale.” Not the dot-com era. Not mobile. Not cloud. Not crypto. Nothing in the history of venture capital has assembled this much value, this fast. Chamath: “These are trillion-dollar companies. They both are. And they both deserve to be.” He is not speculating. He is closing the debate. Two companies. Both trillion-dollar entities. Both built in under a decade. Both converging on the same IPO window. When they arrive, they will not simply absorb capital. They will decide where every dollar in the sector is allowed to flow. Chamath: “The tech sector P/E is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than non-tech P/E.” That inverts every consensus assumption in the room. The prevailing thesis is that AI benefits tech first. AI rises. Tech sector wins. Chamath is saying the opposite. AI does not lift the sector. AI eats it from inside. Chamath: “It will eliminate, cannibalize, and erode most of the moats that support this differential trading.” Three verbs. Eliminate. Cannibalize. Erode. He chose all three because one was not violent enough. For twenty years, software companies commanded premium multiples because they had moats. Proprietary code. Switching costs. Network effects. Data advantages. AI dissolves all of it. When an intelligence that compounds every ninety days can replicate your entire product stack at a fraction of the cost, your moat is not a moat. It is a trench your competitor crosses in a single quarter. The market is still pricing software companies as if that defensibility holds for fifteen years. Chamath just cut the window to five or six. Chamath: “I’ll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I’m not buying year 15 of this anymore.” That is a Wall Street death sentence written in plain English. Every SaaS company trading at 20x revenue on the assumption of a long runway just had that runway cut by two-thirds. Not because their product failed. Because three companies are about to make the entire software category irrelevant. OpenAI. Anthropic. SpaceX. When those three hit the public market, capital does what capital always does. It consolidates around certainty. When the highest-conviction bet available is general intelligence itself, every other software company becomes a rounding error. Capital does not slowly migrate. It floods. Institutions do not politely trim their mid-tier SaaS exposure. They dump it. They redeploy everything into the three companies that now control the direction of the entire industry. The companies left behind do not gradually decline. Their multiples compress. Their valuations crater. Their ability to raise capital, retain talent, or execute a meaningful acquisition evaporates inside a single earnings cycle. Chamath: “These software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech P/E… it’s going to be nasty.” Tech companies valued like tech companies for two decades are about to be valued like everyone else. Not a market correction. The moment Wall Street strips the software sector of its premium and never gives it back. Three companies absorbed the premium. The rest of the sector gets the invoice.
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AD@orange_pilld·
@DividendGuy67 @ryQuant Don't be dumb. Once BTC is back to new ATHs do the math on what MSTR 1 million BTC stack does to their share price. Think 5 years out.
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DividendGuy67
DividendGuy67@DividendGuy67·
@ryQuant So? As they accumulated more since Nov 2024, their share price tanked from $500+ down to $120. How is getting more BTC helping its share price?
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Ryan 🏧🟧
Ryan 🏧🟧@ryQuant·
$MSTR this is my conservative estimate as to wen we will hit 1M BTC. The 25% input number, less than half of the YoY Change and CAGR averages reflects the decreased mNAV, BTC Price, and macro uncertainty with the latest war. Incredible to go from 0 to 1M BTC in 7.4 years.
Ryan 🏧🟧 tweet media
LamboStrategy@LamboStrategy

@saylor @HODL15Capital wen 1 nakamoto for #mstr

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AD@orange_pilld·
@TeslaXplored The only folks IMO who are not bearish are the ones who bought TSLA pre 2019, made a shit ton of money (kudos to them for holding through and deserving that) and cannot see Tesla or Elon doing anything wrong thanks to that windfall.
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Ramy
Ramy@TeslaXplored·
It’s ok to be Bullish Tesla and Bearish $tsla. The stock is already pricing in a lot of future execution. So if all we get is more promises of what the company WILL do, $tsla won’t move. We’re at the “show me don’t tell me” phase now with 300x p/e. Especially when timelines slip.
Ramy tweet mediaRamy tweet mediaRamy tweet media
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AD@orange_pilld·
@elonmusk Time to pamp with bad delivery print.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
FSD 14.3 is in Tesla employee beta now and will probably go to wide release end of week
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AD@orange_pilld·
@WheelieInvestor Anything less than 70-80 drawdown are rookie numbers for high growth (sofi hood etc). Big tech about 30% and the rest about 40-50%. At those levels are surely long term buys.
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The Wheelie Investor
The Wheelie Investor@WheelieInvestor·
This market is a long term investors dream Here are the top stocks trading at a big discount from all time highs: $ORCL -60% $HOOD -57% $SOFI -48% $META -34% $PLTR -31% $TSLA -27% $AMD -24% $GOOGL -21% $NVDA -21%
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AD@orange_pilld·
@marcvanderchijs Upgrade to max- worth it. No regrets
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Marc van der Chijs
Marc van der Chijs@marcvanderchijs·
I hit my Claude Pro limit for the first time today, not sure if I should upgrade to Max. I built 2 mobile games in 2 hours with Claude Cowork, while doing research in Chat on open source AlphaFold alternatives. Locked out for the next 2 hours :(
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