Paolo Lim

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Paolo Lim

Paolo Lim

@paolo_lim

@BristolUni PhD in Politics 2020 and scandinavian language enthusiast. Views expressed here are mines and do not reflect those affiliated with me.

Philippines Katılım Kasım 2008
868 Takip Edilen483 Takipçiler
Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@Nassreddin2002 Most of those I can name are in the UK, NL, BE, Spain, Germany, Norway, and Sweden.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@AstorAaron @reesetheone1 And plus TX suburbia and university-whites are evangelical compared to counterparts in other swing states.
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Aaron Astor
Aaron Astor@AstorAaron·
@reesetheone1 TX GOP wins bc college whites are not as Dem as in other states. TX has a lower Non-col white population than most other red states. Only about 34%. They are extremely GOP but they aren't enough alone to win. Trump won college whites in TX 57-41.
Aaron Astor tweet media
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@SER1897 Yeah if we’re honest one thing that gets lost in the “Will TX suburbia drift blue?” Conversation is that TX suburbia is evangelical heavy to withstand blue tsunamis, let alone waves.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@DrewSav - a fairly progressive D vs a Trump-friendly R - the former starts with a reasonably healthy lead but runs out of gas towards the end - the latter's supporters highlight the flaws of the former, especially those that are progressive and woke-ish
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
Based on the punditry from Decision Desk, I am now beginning to see echoes of #FLGov 2018 race in the #TXSen 2026 race. @DrewSav
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
If Alberta decides to secede from Canada, Carney will have the distinction of being in a position of authority across two countries when each of them decided to unsettle long-standing unions. @LarrySabato @AstorAaron @DrewSav @bdquinn
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@roon0292 @NickyFrank30 @StatisticUrban Rubio would be the “least worst” option for Ds if they lose. Won’t be as ideologically far right (though he’s trended there) but 2030 midterm drubbing is still imminent.
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Jim Rooney
Jim Rooney@roon0292·
@NickyFrank30 @StatisticUrban To be honest whoever wins in 2028 is probably going to be a one termer because they’re going to be left with a huge mess
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@bdquinn @roon0292 This is the “least worst” option for Ds if they lose. He’s not as ideological as Vance though Rubio has tacked right while 2030 doldrums for Rs would still be inevitable.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@Nassreddin2002 You forgot 🇩🇰Socialdemokratiet which is scrambling to save its skin through negotiations.
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Nassreddin 🍉 نصر الدين
🇳🇱PRO 🇸🇪Socialdemokraterna 🇮🇹PD 🇳🇴Ap 🇪🇸PSOE Centre-left parties that find themselves in a tough position: ruled out by basically half of the parliament So their only chance to govern is to form incoherent coalitions from the far-left to neolibs and other single issue parties
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@PollTracker2024 Another reminder of how Montana now has a GOP six-fecta: - Governor - both chambers of the state legislature - 2 US Senate seats - POTUS
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Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024·
Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll | 4/29-5/7 RV (Montana surveyed, approvals) 🟥President Donald Trump ✅Approve 49% ❌Disapprove 48% (+1) —— 🟥Senator Tim Sheehy ❌Disapprove 47% ✅Approve 45% (-2) —— 🟥Senator Steve Daines ❌Disapprove 47% ✅Approve 41% (-6) —— 🟥Governor Greg Gainforte ❌Disapprove 47% ✅Approve 44% (-3) montanafreepress.org/2026/05/22/gia…
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@Nassreddin2002 On one hand I would think UK Labour is thankful for first-past-the-post. On the other hand they know UK PMs know they’re a few internal party defections away from collapse, not to mention a general election away from seeing it all collapse too.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@AstorAaron It’s honestly on the media now for not calling this out as part of a broader pattern.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@KaoticLeftist It’s ironic because she’s burned political capital on the issue and is now on life support. Now voters won’t believe her “change course” moves.
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Todd Beeton
Todd Beeton@toddbeeton·
@EricMGarcia Huh? From the poll results you shared, Kamala is winning among every demographic. So who are these supposed voters who want to “move on from Harris”?
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Eric Michael Garcia
Eric Michael Garcia@EricMGarcia·
Hardly the first person who has said this, but Democrats have the same split Republicans had with Trump in 2023: Democratic leaders, elected officials and fundraisers want to move on from Kamala Harris. But the base (that is, Black voters) still want her to run.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

McLaughlin poll | 5/12-5/18 LV 2028 Democratic US presidential primary (by race) Black Democrats 🟦Kamala Harris 47% 🟦Gavin Newsom 10% 🟦AOC 6% 🟦Cory Booker 5% —— White Democrats 🟦Kamala Harris 21% 🟦Gavin Newsom 19% 🟦Pete Buttigieg 10% 🟦Josh Shapiro 7% —— Hispanic Democrats 🟦Kamala Harris 36% 🟦AOC 13% 🟦Gavin Newsom 11% 🟦Josh Shapiro 9%

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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@ClistonBrown At this stage I’m not sure what the “non-suicidal” alternative is.
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@celeste43_ @ClistonBrown I hate to say this, but Ds losing POTUS in 2028 is the “least worst” alternative. Still disappointing but you’re right about what’s looming in 2030 under your scenario.
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Matt
Matt@celeste43_·
@ClistonBrown I think Harris could win in 2028. But outside of somehow being successful I don’t think democrats would be in a good position at all in 2030 and 2032 and those election years are very important. I hope the voters move in a different direction
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Paolo Lim
Paolo Lim@paolo_lim·
@henryolsenEPPC Denmark could be next…though the right did not lose. Still the CW is Frederiksen would stay on as PM of an increasingly complicated centrist government. But Løkke has closed the door on negotiations with her.
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Henry Olsen
Henry Olsen@henryolsenEPPC·
Remember when liberals said that populists had lost the Slovenian election? They had conveniently overlooked the fact that populist and conservative parties had collectively won a majority - and have now made the populist Slovenia’s PM.
Giorgia Meloni@GiorgiaMeloni

Esprimo le mie sincere congratulazioni a Janez Janša per la sua elezione a Primo Ministro di Slovenia. Sono certa che imposteremo un lavoro fruttuoso per l’ulteriore crescita delle relazioni tra Italia e Slovenia e per lo sviluppo di un’agenda europea fondata sulla promozione dei nostri interessi comuni, a beneficio delle nostre nazioni. Buon lavoro Janez!

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MOMARWAND🔻🇵🇸🇱🇧🇨🇺
@Nassreddin2002 I think the reason is that the Finnish far right is a million times more racist than the Swedish far right, to the point that it's perfectly natural for them to alienate voters in a country with high standards of human rights and equality like Finland.
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