peon

$5k to $50k Challenge Current Account Value: $6464(up $1500(+30%) since I started this challenge a month ago) Apologies for the lack of updates lately. The past couple of weeks have been eventful. Trump’s 100% tariff announcement, crypto crime, and yesterday’s sharp sell-off have kept me locked in. That pullback presented a good buy the dip opportunity though, since the end of quantitative tightening (QT) is near. Weak economic data, rising unemployment, slowing job growth all point toward easing ahead. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another flush in the coming weeks, but I view those as opportunities to DCA and build positioning for 2026. For those who aren't aware. My current portfolio and outlook are built around three core themes: 1. Gambling as a Macro Outlet In November 2016, Venezuela entered a period of extreme hyperinflation with rates over 1,000,000%. This resulted in catastrophic decline in wages, basic necessities and soaring poverty wages. As people saw their national currency lose value, people became more desperate and a simple, roulette-style lottery called "Los Animalitos" was born. Tickets were cheap but they could potentially win more than a monthly minimum wage to buy food or diapers for their children. Inflation and wealth inequality in the U.S. is now reaching extreme levels too. The national debt has crossed $38 TRILLION(Interest expense alone is $90 billion a month), and policymakers continue pressing the gas pedal on spending. In a world where savings are eroding and traditional investing is out of reach for the average person, gambling has become an accessible financial outlet. Gambling is instant, emotional, and offers the illusion of control. This is why we’re seeing the rise of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and Robinhood. Each capitalizing on the “financialization of gambling.” This is also why everyone should be buying assets. 2. Crypto - The US Escape Plan On September 8th, Russia accused the U.S. of using crypto and gold to manage its debt problem, and they’re not wrong. This is the right move for the US. Since Trump’s return, we’ve seen a series of major legislative pushes around digital assets: -GENIUS Act (Signed 7/18/25) Establishes stablecoin regulations and reserve requirements -CLARITY Act (Passed House, pending Senate) Defines SEC vs CFTC jurisdiction Provides a clearer framework for digital asset classification -Anti-CBDC Act (Passed House, pending Senate) Blocks the rollout of central bank digital currencies The U.S. is clearly setting the stage for a regulated crypto economy and I anticipate we will see another ICO crypto boom soon. 3. AI No deep dive needed here. Pretty sure Sam Altmon's going to rule the world. It 100% a bubble but it’s not over yet. From now through 2026, my approach is simple: Anchor my trades around my main thesis' and keep managing risk like the bubble could pop tomorrow Port Allocation: 32% $SOFI(6 calls) 21% $TSLL(5 calls) 9% $GLXY(1 call) 34% $HOOD(2 calls) 4% Cash Equity: $2100 SOFI(+$174) $1367 TSLL(+$127) $600 GLXY(+$35) $2245 HOOD(-$140) $157 Cash Total: $6464 Progress to $50k: 2.8%

@Superelchilol Any sigs?

Is anyone interested in buying Riftbound Singles? I have way too many cards...dm me🫡 mostly chinese Origins cards😅 many playable cards like dazzling aurora, sett etc.

@kamikazecash Get your point but FYI US Importers/consumers are the ones who actually pay the tariffs.

Welcome to @RobinhoodApp to all the $TSLA shareholders who transferred more than $1.4B to Robinhood, with an average account size of over $500k. Clear signal that people want choice, speed, and innovative tools that help them make their voices heard.

I just want to note that even in April names did not just V shape back to highs. There was a bottoming process across most stocks for a few weeks, even the leaders. There is no rush to start buying like a madman when selling is this intense. I know “buy the dip” sounds fun and gets attention/engagement but reality is there’s never a rush. Names will create bases for a few days or weeks, just as they did in April. From there you’ll see which stocks emerge from those bases first. The odds of all stocks just making a V shape recovery back to their highs is low… you will not miss much if you don’t try to time the bottom.

@HatedMoats Thanks for the write up!

The full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/hatedmoats…

My $NBIS thread is gonna be a big one so I'll post it tomorrow since it would die today in echos of $NVDA. Instead, I'll let it die tomorrow in a classic X algorithm killing, as a real man. Meanwhile you can read the full analysis already available on Substck! See you! :)

As we explain below, this entire market crash is a product of sentiment. Investors are afraid to be the "last one out." This also works in the opposite direction. That is, rallies gain momentum quickly as investors are afraid of missing the "next big thing." There has almost never been a time where markets were so polarized between two seemingly binary outcomes. On top of this, markets have evolved into their most reactive and hypersensitive form in history due to constant headline fatigue. Ultimately, when you zoom out, volatility is just the byproduct of AI, one of the biggest technological revolutions in modern history. It's called "disruption" for a reason.

Paying to be patient right now. We’re still only 4.8% off the highs and need to see a base form. NVDA earnings was good but the market is still aggressively selling off any type of bounce. Coupled with rates likely to stay the same this December, I don’t see any reason to go risk on until we capitulate further or good news starts trending. Stay safe and raise cash on any short term plays if needed

My cash exposure is currently ~20%, after I raised capital by de-risking from my defensive positions, which I hold specifically for moments like these, when the markets give us a good buying opportunity on the high-timeframes. However, before I start rotating it into my high-beta holdings, and before I continue scaling out of my hedges for my spot holdings in risk-assets like $BTC, $ETH, alts and proxies, which have all gone down and where I’ve already mitigated the short-term downside risk, I want to see some clear signs of strength. I want to see the high-timeframe support ranges that are currently being tested hold, because if they fail, it would invalidate the idea that this is a corrective wave 2 on the high-timeframes, and the most likely outcome would shift toward further downside instead of a durable reversal. For now, the confluences I’m tracking, the market structure with key high-timeframe support ranges being tested, the Velo Data and Glassnode metrics showing whales and institutional investors accumulating over the last couple of weeks, and the futures markets showing bears doubling down on shorts as the open-interest rises, while the price is going down, all remain bullish. They still point toward a reversal in the coming days and weeks. But until we get clear confirmations and further developments, I believe the best approach is to stay patient, because the risk of catching a falling knife by re-accumulating too early is still high.

Plan has been playing out nicely. With $NVDA beating earnings I’m feeling it’s a good time to hunt for some entries soon 👀

"The methodology has to be ‘I don't want it too bad’ because self-imposed pressure is the biggest catalyst to paralyze your ability to maximize your talent" - Paul Annacone @TraderMagus has shared this quote with me 3 times over the last year and at first I kept thinking it was nonsense. Here I am now a year wiser and just beginning to understand the value of this lesson. Breathe and find peace.

ugly day once again there isn’t a massive headline but here’s what I think is causing it: - market wanted CPI today, white house said “lol not gonna happen” so lack of data is causing issues - Verizon just announced 15K layoffs, 15% of their workforce…markets seem to be thinking they can not ignore labor market even without data - 3 different fed presidents all came out over the past 48 hours and said they are more concerned about inflation…Powell a few weeks ago made it clear he cares more about the downside risk to the labor market, so the sudden shift is now making people think a december cut wont happen along with the potential fears on ai capex spend, that seems to be causing this drawdown having said that… - earnings are strong - tutes are buying heavily - margins continue to increase - datacenter buildout isnt going anywhere even if some debt is involved - $AMD just guided for 35% rev growth next 5 years, $NVDA earnings next week - rates eventually coming down and companies are still executing very well so money likely will be allocated as we prepare for cuts - if the supreme court does reverse tariffs, could be bullish since markets never liked tariffs and could lower inflation expectations not enough to go net bearish here and the lack of a real headline causing this pain means it might just be a headfake

$SOFI's CEO Anthony Noto on CNBC this morning talking crypto. (Full video)

@cantonmeow SO FAR SO GOOD LETS SEE

Let's see if #Bitcoin holds the 50 week SMA and the 1.272 log fib to end the week.

In crypto people are always stuck in that binary, is this the start of something, or is it over. That thinking gets you chasing tops and bailing at the lows. It is better to stop framing every move as the beginning of a bull run or the end of one, and instead look at it as, what kind of conditions am I trading in right now. Some environments are cooperative, liquidity is there, follow through is clean, buyers or sellers are clearly in control, your ideas get paid quickly. Other environments are adversarial, breakouts get faded, wicks are everywhere, funding and perp behavior are messy, you have to work harder for less. So the real question is not, is this the start, it is, are conditions supportive, or are they fighting me. That is the “pissing with or against the wind” idea. If the wind is at your back, you can be a little more aggressive, you can hold a bit longer, you can press continuation. If the wind is in your face, you scale down, you take profits faster, you wait for cleaner spots, you let the market prove it wants to move. Thinking in terms of conditions keeps you flexible, thinking in terms of beginnings and endings makes you rigid. Crypto is not one long story arc, it is pockets of opportunity inside a noisy market. Your job is to recognize when it is one of those good pockets, and when it is not.

Bittensor Ecosystem Highlights of the (huge) Week #34 (It’s starting to get really hard to choose which logos to include in the illustration) // SUBNET UPDATES & ACHIEVEMENTS ➤ @ridges_ai SN62 Ridges finally launched Ridges v1, the first version of their product, to their first test users. (bit.ly/4hK1Hho) ➤ @metanova_labs SN68 NOVA_Blueprint, the new incentive layer of Metanova, is now live, creating a competition to build the best chemical search algorithms. (bit.ly/498TBNo) They also released a brand new dashboard for this new challenge. (bit.ly/3LqGsW4) ➤ @Data_SN13 SN13 Data Universe released The Data Universe marketplace. (x.com/Data_SN13/stat…) ➤ @lium_io SN51 Lium alpha token is now listed on MEXC. (x.com/lium_io/status…) Lium added support for running GPU computations in a trustless way using CVM and full encryption. (x.com/lium_io/status…) They’re also now using their revenue to buy back & burn over $10,000 per day into the SN51 token. (x.com/lium_io/status…) ➤ @chutes_ai SN64 Chutes alpha token is now listed on MEXC. (x.com/chutes_ai/stat…) A bunch of fresh models are now available on Chutes. (x.com/chutes_ai/stat…) ➤ @Bitcast_network SN93 They introduced their new platform, allowing creators to no-code mine their subnet by making videos. They also completely overhauled their website. (x.com/Bitcast_networ…) ➤ @sportstensor SN41 They partnered with @GRIDesports to use their sports data and turn that into market intelligence. (x.com/sportstensor/s…) ➤ @bitsecai SN60 Bitsec launched their V2, completely revamping their subnet with a scalable, agent-based AI security system that outperforms human auditors and enables decentralized, revenue-generating code auditing. (x.com/bitsecai/statu…) ➤ @babelbit SN59 Babelbit dropped a major revamp of their website. (x.com/babelbit/statu…) ➤ @tplr_ai SN3 Covenant72B checkpoint 2 just dropped, showing that a decentralized foundation model run beat Llama2 7B with only a quarter as many tokens. (x.com/const_reborn/s…) ➤ @zeussubnet SN18 Zeus dropped the results of their benchmark against ECMWF IFS HRES, showing that they outperform them on every variable. (x.com/zeussubnet/sta…) ➤ @webuildscore SN44 Score explained the scope of their new incentive mechanism, aiming to become a “visionGPT" platform — the default way computer vision models are built, trained, deployed, and improved. (x.com/webuildscore/s…) ➤ @resilabsai SN46 @dsvfund confirmed a $100,000 OTC allocation into Resi alpha token. (x.com/Sebyverse/stat…) ➤ @LeadpoetAI SN71 @dsvfund confirmed a $100,000 OTC allocation into Leadpoet alpha token. (x.com/LeadpoetAI/sta…) ➤ @SwarmSubnet SN124 They dropped some upgrades on their homepage. (x.com/SwarmSubnet/st…) ➤ @SynthdataCo SN50 Their Polymarket account trading using Synth forecasts just passed $15k profit, with a 500% ROI. (x.com/SynthdataCo/st…) Synth HFT prompts go live next week. (x.com/SynthdataCo/st…) ➤ @qBitTensorLabs SN48 & SN63 The qBTL team is on-site at Google’s New York City headquarters today for @The_QEDC annual meeting. (x.com/qBitTensorLabs…) ➤ @vidaio_ SN85 Vidaio showed a 96% compressed image with no discernible quality loss thanks to their subnet. (x.com/vidaio_/status…) ➤ @404gen_ SN17 They are teasing so big updates coming soon. (x.com/404gen_/status…) ➤ @kinitroai SN26 They’re showcasing their participants’ progress in their multi-task competition. (x.com/kinitroai/stat…) // SUBNET LAUNCH ➤ @wearetalisman SN45 Talisman partnered with @TeamRizzoAI to launch their subnet Talisman AI, which will drive autonomous, agent-driven strategies in Talisman. (x.com/wearetalisman/…) // BITTENSOR ECOSYSTEM ➤ @opentensor OpenTensor released 2 major updates: “Tao Flow,” which changes how emissions are injected into subnet pools to improve capital allocation across the network, and “Root Claim,” which allows root stakers to receive their rewards in the underlying alpha tokens from each subnet their validator touches. (x.com/opentensor/sta…) ➤ @gtaoventures They announced the launch of Project Rubicon, a liquid-staked alpha bridge in partnership with @chainlink CCIP, allowing users to trade alpha tokens on @AerodromeFi and @baseapp. (x.com/gtaoventures/s…) ➤ @xtaohq xTAO just raised $7.3M in new funding to expand their $TAO treasury. (x.com/xtaohq/status/…) ➤ @TAOSynergies TAO Synergies announced an initial $750,000 investment in Yuma Asset Management's Bittensor Subnet Funds. (x.com/TAOSynergies/s…) ➤ @taostats The Taostats team submitted a BIT for the addition of substrate-native smart contracts in Bittensor, and they’re now live. (x.com/mogmachine/sta…) ➤ @mentatminds They released their new index covering @covenant_ai subnets. (x.com/mentatminds/st…) // PODCASTS ➤ @VenturaLabs podcast Ep. 68 with @matthew_karas from @babelbit (x.com/VenturaLabs/st…) ➤ @VenturaLabs podcast Ep. 69 with @neuromancer_t from @sportstensor (x.com/VenturaLabs/st…) $TAO

Days like today is where we review our strategies and thesis. Time to mark out entries on HTF and wait for capitulation.

Keep it all in perspective: The AI run has been so strong that investors have become hypersensitive to ANY volatility. The S&P 500 is down -2.8% from its record high and up +37% since April 7th, yet sentiment is at "Extreme Fear." And, Nvidia erased -$500 billion in market cap in 3 days after Jensen Huang said China was "nanoseconds behind" the US on AI. Markets have simply become highly reactive to ANY headline. The reality is that the S&P 500 averages at least 3 declines of -5% or more PER YEAR, despite averaging a +10% annual gain. If the index is able to rally 40%+ in 6 months, then a downturn of 5% to 10% is completely normal. The most successful investors will weather the volatility with conviction. We are in the midst of a generational technological revolution. Don't let the volatility scare you.

Most likely we see some capitulation in the next few weeks as the government shutdown and job fears narrative continue. As long as the shutdown continues, FED will continue to remain in the dark as they are still data dependent. My guess is we see the the shutdown resolve itself in the middle of November. Then, following the resolution, the FED in December will receive bad jobs data (Market dumps) and proceed with the intended cut + pausing QT. For my strategy going forward, plan is to expect a lot of chop in the next few weeks(maybe till the middle of December) and bid any large dips on select assets. I firmly believe the next fed cut(if it happens) is bullish for assets and any large dip is a huge buying opportunity through Q1-Q2 2026. If you do not have cash here its probably a good idea to exit some lower conviction plays if we see some relief bounces over the next few days. Objective is to stay in the game and not get psyched out. Stay safe out there. We’re still bullish.

Downturn Rule #1: Don't Trade Your Conviction. THINK vs. CLICK Ask yourself the hard question: Did the price drop because the company is fundamentally broken, or because the market is emotionally oversold? If your thesis is intact, then the dip is the ebb and flow of the market. Hold steady or reassess.

@TheRonnieVShow Yep great call out on the weakness of the QQQ back last month

When you go against the grain people hate you for it. Well, keep hating...I was right. Both gaps on $QQQ have been filled and we are over 3% off the highs. I don't play just offense or defense... I play both! I call it like I see it. You either appreciate it or you don't.