Petromatrix

Swiss President was in Saudi Arabia yesterday, Diplomatically Switzerland is Protecting Power for US interest in Iran.

#Tehran | Following the temporary closure of the @SwissEmbassyIr on 11 March due to the security situation, a Swiss team has returned to Tehran as of 20 April. Four staff travelled overland via Azerbaijan and are now preparing the gradual resumption of operations.

Back to being on JD Vance watch 👀

Konstruktiver Austausch mit seiner königlichen Hoheit Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Hauptthema war die aktuelle Lage in der Region und deren wirtschaftlichen Folgen, sowie die Möglichkeiten einer noch stärkeren Zusammenarbeit mit Fokus auf Handel und Investitionen.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets Swiss Confederation President Guy Parmelin in Jeddah.

The Chinese group’s latest version of its condensed Qilin battery has a greater range than the distance by road from London to Barcelona and marks a leap from the 1,000km limit of its previous edition. ft.trib.al/gWoz2Mm

'CATL has attracted renewed investor interest after the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran strengthened expectations of a long-term boost for clean energy. Its Hong Kong-listed shares have risen more than 40 per cent this year and are up almost 140 per cent over the past 12 months.

Trillions of assets moving every 2 minutes on random headline updates to JD Vance's travel itinerary

VANCE WILL LEAVE FOR ISLAMABAD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, ACCORDING TO CNN.

CAPTE-N: La Commissione vuole la revoca del divieto di costruire nuove centrali nucleari parl.ch/4mEIrV0

Washington Still Doesn’t Understand Iran Yet again, we are seeing evidence of how poorly Washington understands the Iranian regime. The persistent belief that a single decisive move like a naval blockade, strikes on critical infrastructure, or even the targeted killing of senior officials, could fundamentally change Tehran’s behavior reflects a profound misreading of the system. This point cannot be stressed enough: when faced with a choice between conceding to U.S. demands or escalating a confrontation it believes it can manage and even win, Iran’s decision is not difficult to predict. It will not capitulate. There is no scenario in which one dramatic move forces the Iranian regime to raise a white flag. Not pressure campaigns, not military actions, and not symbolic shows of force. And yet, American policy repeatedly searches for that elusive “silver bullet” meaning a single action that will deliver a quick, decisive victory. That search is bound to fail. This is the core of the Iranian challenge. It is not simply a question of power, but of patience, strategic culture, and fundamentally different assumptions about time and success. Iran is prepared for prolonged confrontation; the United States, far less so. #iran

Oil demand destruction 1mbpd in March, 2.5mbpd in April - Gunvor #oott

I believe you will have no trouble reading this through a translator. Fantastic stuff.

What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved? Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly. First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market. ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery. EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract. Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined. Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior). CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation. DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets. Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit. This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes. A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations. If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price. The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms: 1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index. The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract. Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130. Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price. 2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism) If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism. Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position. The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated. 3) Forced Short Covering Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside. Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration. They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date. This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market. Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches. #oott #iran

TotalEnergies made bumper profit on Middle East oil bet. One person close to the French group said its traders had made more than $1bn after buying up every cargo of crude oil produced in the United Arab Emirates and Oman to load in May that was available to buy in March. ft.com/content/eba87b… via @ft

🚨 FIRST LOOK: The Donald J. Trump Presidential Library is officially here. Over the past six months, I have poured my heart and soul into this project with my incredible team at @Trump. This landmark on the water in Miami, Florida will stand as a lasting testament to an amazing man, an amazing developer, and the greatest President our Nation has ever known. 🇺🇸 These images have never been seen by the public — until today. Enjoy! trumplibrary.org

Status updsate of oil in the Persian Gulf from @EnergySPG. Nothing is moving.

Iran has struck at least 11 U.S. military facilities since Saturday. @heytherehaley @riley_mellen and I found damage on or near communications and radar systems at 7 of them (no paywall link here) nyti.ms/4upLCnl

Latest w/ @Lloydslisted & @bridget_diakun: US President Donald Trump signalled that the US Navy was ready to offer security escorts for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz – less than 24 hours after Navy officials told shipping industry representatives that there was “no chance” of escorts happening any time soon. Free to read @LloydsList link in comments