@LanceZierlein Well. That’s better than 95% of the draft media complex. Good job.
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poutine83
6.6K posts
Post yours. I've had mine on Move the Sticks, radio, The Athletic podcast, Twitter, Path to the draft.....
Admitting your missed something is no big deal. I've written up 6000 players now. There are misses. All I care about is trying to find out why and improve my process. Just try and be accurate. You don't even post a name or picture so I'm not sure you care to much about "accountability". lol Just an anyonymous troll. Nothing more, nothing less.
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There are some fantasy football accounts that do a good job of putting in the time and making salient observations in the draft space.
And then there are also fantasy football accounts that should just do fantasy football content.
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@poutine8383 @ScottBarrettDFB @LanceZierlein Draftniks only care about the draft. Once it's over, their responsibility is over.
It's a great business model IMO.
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@poutine8383 @ScottBarrettDFB Actually, I've said publicly in interviews, podcasts and this app MULTIPLE times. This is a poor observation
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@LanceZierlein @ScottBarrettDFB Man. If this tweet is that upsetting to you, you’re gonna love @Ihartitz
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@ScottBarrettDFB You conveniently left out Josh Allen with your "power conferences" disclaimer and used a stat that would hurt a QB who sat out 4th quarters. That smells of data dredging.
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All Round 1 QBs with fewer than two 300-yard passing games in their final college season
+ since 2009, Power Conference-only
Christian Ponder, 2010 (0)
Fernando Mendonza, 2025 (1)
JJ McCarthy, 2023 (1)
Jake Locker, 2010 (1)
Tim Tebow, 2009 (1)
/end of list
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@reinhardNFL And keep in mind that the incentive for these GM’s is that driving up the draft cost of a prospect they don’t want drives down prospects they do want
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Keep in mind, NFL GMs are legally allowed to lie to Dan Orlovsky. They are completely shielded from prosecution.
Ari Meirov@MySportsUpdate
Dan Orlovsky says he texted 12–15 GMs/decision-makers that Alabama QB Ty Simpson is the best QB in the draft, and only 2 disagreed. (🎥 @PatMcAfeeShow)
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@ScottBarrettDFB @LanceZierlein The funny thing about draft analysts like Lance is that there is zero accountability, they so rarely say “man I missed on this guy and need to reevaluate my process”. They just move on to the next, just driving clicks for their corporate overlords. A few are good, most less so
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@LanceZierlein respectfully, you don't know me
all of my draft stuff is free and public. put your hit-rate up against mine.
go back and read what we both wrote about Treylon Burks, Jalin Hyatt, Malachi Corley, Matthew Golden, Puka Nacua
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@CoopAFiasco @maxtoscano1 Saw Field mocked Sadiq to them and it made me sad.
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I can't believe what the Panthers did to JT Sanders
Captain Bruisin, cruise director@Ian_A_Boyd
Sark has some deadly tight end screens that could see a return this season with Nick Townsend:
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@RyanJ_Heath Am I the only one that is excited for Klare’s pro day tomorrow. Does that make me a sicko?
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Best seasonal reception share
[among TEs drafted inside the top-100 since 2015]
1. Harold Fannin* - 42.4%
2. Trey McBride* - 38.0%
3. Jonnu Smith* - 35.7%
4. Tyler Warren - 35.6%
5. Michael Mayer* - 31.8%
6. Sam LaPorta - 30.2%
7. Colston Loveland - 29.5%
8. Maxx Williams - 28.3%
9. ELI STOWERS - 27.4%
10. MAX KLARE - 27.0%
11. Dalton Kincaid - 24.3%
12. Hunter Long - 23.6%
13. Evan Engram - 22.5%
14. Gerald Everett* - 22.3%
15. SAM ROUSH - 21.9%
16. Josh Oliver* - 21.7%
17. Mike Gesicki - 21.2%
18. Brock Bowers - 20.7%
19. Hunter Henry - 20.3%
20. Greg Dulcich - 20.2%
21. TJ Hockenson - 20.2%
22. Mark Andrews - 20.1%
* = occurred in a non-Power Conference
Then there are another 32 players below Andrews, with no real fantasy smashes (tops out at Kyle Pitts/David Njoku/Noah Fant, gets bad very quickly)
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@SamMonsonNFL @NoFilm_Analysis It’s funny because he actually has a pretty outstanding rate on contested targets. Seems far more like noise than signal.
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Yeah, I mean I think some of it definitely can, but he also shows some of the blame on tape.
I don't love his catching technique, he definitely doesn't like being led into contact across the middle. I think general ball skills are a pretty clear relative weakness to guys like Tate.
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Drops don’t actually matter in wide receiver evaluation. It has essentially 0 correlation to NFL success.
There isn’t a single elite receiver in the NFL that has a sub-5% drop rate in college.
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Player (Career Drop Rate in College)
Puka Nacua (8.5%)
Ja’Marr Chase (7.8%)
Justin Jefferson (7.3%)
Malik Nabers (7.3%)
Garrett Wilson (7.1%)
Zay Flowere (10.4%)
Brian Thomas Jr. (9.3%)
Jordan Addison (9.5%)
DK Metcalf (9.5%)
————————————
Then you get to the actual translatability of the stat itself and it gets more muddy
George Pickens had the best drop rate in college of any 1,000+ yard receiver of the last decade at 2.2%. He’s actually struggled with drops in the NFL with a 7% drop rate including a season with a 12% drop rate in 2024.
CeeDee Lamb has 4 seasons with a drop rate >9% in the NFL after having 0 in college. Hasn’t kept him from being great.
In fact, Amon-Ra had a higher drop rate in college than Lamb, but his drop rate in the NFL is 3% compared to Lamb’s 7.6%.
If Concepcion struggles to translate to the NFL, it will have nothing to do with his high drop rate.
Sam Monson@SamMonsonNFL
If Concepcion had better ball skills, you could make a real WR1 argument in this draft class for him, imo.
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I know Ian knows this and most people will understand the context, but I waned to add to this.
In 2025, Skyler Bell had 4 drops on 141 Targets with a 31% target share.
For context, JSN was at 33% and Ja’Marr Chase at 30%.
More targets = more opportunities for drops. It likely also indicates an offense that has to run through a certain player and potentially force passes. A high drop rate can still indicate a player with poor hand technique, but it can also be an indicator of a QB setting his WRs up to fail. Not all drops are created equal. This is why we need context. Watch the film, understand why the drops happen.
Ian Hartitz@Ihartitz
Career dropped passes by the top 2026 WR prospects
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@JMoney76487344 @DynastyDorks None of that actually indicates he’s an actually a WR1 or will ever be a WR1 though. I get wanting the guy who’s had a few productive games over the mystery box. But Rome hasn’t been that guy either.
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@poutine8383 @DynastyDorks Rome had 54/734/3 his rookie year.
44/661/6 missing 5 games with a broken foot. He’s a WR1 in a top 10 offense. To pick 3 rookie WRs over him and not knowing the landing spot or how they will play or be used is crazy talk.
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Rome Odunze Dynasty Price Check
#dynastypricecheck
This is a thread ⤵️
Feel free to add polls
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@LanceZierlein The irony is that there are plenty of fantasy guys on this space that are better at it than some of the mainstream “draft experts”.
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@JMoney76487344 @DynastyDorks What exactly has Odunze done in 2 years since being drafted that makes you think he’s a can’t miss wr?
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@DynastyDorks It’s crazy to me this many people think the top 3 incoming rookie WRs are going to be better than Rome Odunze. Absolutely wild!
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@ScottBarrettDFB @BGWhitefield Francisco Mendoza? The soccer player?
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I will be in the lab tomorrow with @BGWhitefield, recording Film vs. Analytics
First episodes on Francisco Mendoza and Kenyon Sadiq vs. Eli Stowers
MrNewFoundTreasure.eth & MrNewFoundTreasure.sol@MrNFTCrypto
@ScottBarrettDFB Are you suggesting the raiders dont take him # 1. If you going to slap your nuts on the table go out there and say it so we can all judge this post in a few years. Otherwise dont soft pedal it.
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@Bowers_szn @DevyEusuf @ScottBarrettDFB Easy ignore. Guy is still hoping that Drew Allar is gonna be something other than “not an nfl qb”.
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@DevyEusuf @ScottBarrettDFB The heisman winning undefeated National champion?
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@SharpFootball That’s not actually his APY, that’s only new money- not the same. It would be if his existing deal was up. He has 2 years existing that it’s tacked on to.
x.com/spotrac/status…
Spotrac@spotrac
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's #Seahawks Extension - 4 yrs, $168.6M new - 6 yrs, $195.1M total - $69.13M guaranteed at sign - $30M more next FEB - $36.5M 2026 cash - 4 years, $120M practical JSN's 2026 cap hit increases $5.8M, but his 2027 hit is lowered by $8.2M. More: spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/i…
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Highest paid WR by year (avg/yr)
2026: $42.2M - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2025: $40.3M - Ja'Marr Chase
2024: $35.0M - Justin Jefferson
2023: $30.0M - Tyreek Hill
2022: $30.0M - Tyreek Hill
2021: $27.3M - DeAndre Hopkins
2020: $27.3M - DeAndre Hopkins
2019: $22.0M - Julio Jones
2018: $18.0M - Odell Beckham, Jr
2017: $17.0M - Antonio Brown
2016: $15.0M - A.J. Green
2015: $16.2M - Calvin Johnson
2014: $16.2M - Calvin Johnson
2013: $16.2M - Calvin Johnson
2012: $16.2M - Calvin Johnson
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@ShotgunnSuge Or maybe, you were just wrong. Novel concept to you I’m sure.
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If the entire season/draft cycle showed that he was a 4.5 speed type of guy, running in a straight line in shorts and a t shirt isn’t a gotcha
A.B. (Tisch Out)@FantasyKash
4.38
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@RyanJ_Heath KC>Cooper>Boston. But forgive me for not being all that excited about any of them for fantasy, maybe KC I guess.
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I said this in reverse too lol whoops
Closer to ranking Cooper>Boston**
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I have this tier ranked the exact reverse of how draft capital does
David J. Gautieri@GuruFantasyWrld
Omar Cooper Jr. has officially surpassed Denzel Boston & KC Concepcion on Mock Draft Database. Nature is healing.
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