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My remarks to @RT_India_news on rising #violence against #bangladeshihindu and the role of the West.
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Pratim Ranjan Bose
15.8K posts
Pratim Ranjan Bose
@pratimbose
Columnist lI Researcher lI Consultant lI Economy, Infra, Energy, South Asia, Northeast India
Kolkata Katılım Kasım 2009
1.2K Takip Edilen3.7K Takipçiler
Pratim Ranjan Bose retweetledi
#WATCH Murshidabad, West Bengal | On the Malda incident, Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury says, "If a judicial officer is kept under siege for 16 hours at a place, among them was a woman officer, and if TMC is not behind it, then can anyone have the courage to do this in Bengal?... Whatever happened, the Trinamool Congress Party is definitely behind it."
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#Bangladesh seeks $2 billion in aid & loan from #India. The country is close to bankruptcy, borrowing to meet current expenses.
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Iran News 24@IRanMediaco
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Pratim Ranjan Bose retweetledi
@pratimbose There is no point in analysing Bengal election. TMC will win hands down for many reasons.
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#WestBengal had 6% tribal votes. They lock, stock and barrel supported BJP in 2019 LS. The support weakened in 2021 and 2024, impacting BJP's results in Jhargram, Medinipur, Burdwan, Hooghly etc. SIR has limited impact in these areas.
Also, the state has sizable #Hindi-speaking population (mostly Bihar, UP and Marwaris) in Kolkata, Howrah, Asansol-Ranigunj and North Bengal. BJP got support in NB, but not in South Bengal, where lies 80% seats.
Trinamool gets roughly 15-16% of the non-Muslim pool (70% of total) which includes this two segments. Winning ST and non-Bengalis votes is therefore key to #BJP's performance in #WestBengalElection2026.
Roughly 7-8 out of every 10 #Bengali #Hindus (SC included) voted for the party in last three elections. There is not much scope to increase this vote share.
BJP has strong grip in North Bengal. But the region has less than 20% of the total seats. Moreover, anti-establishment may work against BJP here.
SIR vote deletion reduced the scope of bogus voting, which is substantial (est 5%) in Bengal. It should cause some surprises in Kolkata and adjoining areas. Maximum deletion took place in Muslim dominated seats, which are out of bounds to BJP.
Many expect split of #Muslim-votes, I do not. It means TMC cannot be wished away. So far, they are way ahead of BJP in campaigning.
Pratim Ranjan Bose@pratimbose
#WestBengalElection is all about ruling party and anti-ruling party. Ideology has little space here except that Muslims are core voters of TMC and BJP benefits from non-Muslim consolidation. The anti-establishment sentiments are strong. But high chances #BJP will fail again in 2026. Winning was tough for BJP as 84 seats are preserves of Muslim votes and will go to non-BJP parties under any circumstances. It means BJP should have a strike rate of 75% in the rest 210. That needs tremendous efficiency and unity. Both are apparently missing, at least visibly. I will not get into details here. But broadly the party's performance may remain below par in its stronghold of North Bengal. Vote here rests on complex caste and community calculations. BJP's excessive support to Rajbanshis may backfire. The party did nothing to elicit confidence in voters, who suffered in the hands of TMC goons, in last 5 years. Insiders claim most of its district leaders are compromised. Precision selection of candidates was important. They failed doing that in 20-30% cases. This should cost them. The first list was good. Trouble began from the second list. They are now changing candidates at the last minute. The party is run as fiefdom of different leaders. Their sole aim is to give tickets to their cronies. All those surveys are eyewash. Even RSS involves itself in this tug-of-war. BJP lost the 2024 LS in Bankura sinply because RSS dig their heel for its nominee A significant section of supporters voted for NOTA. The seat was gifted to TMC. So far the story is no different in 2026. I see die-hard BJP activists who had braced adversities in last five years and stood for the party, are sitting on the sidelines in this poll season. Some promises to defeat the party nominated (bad) candidate. Zero effort from the party to take everyone on board. NOTA may prove to be a major spoiler. The market rumour is the party can get max 125-127 seats. This is based on their internal assessment. Yes SIR can bring some surprises. But, that may swing results either way in closely contested seats. In final analysis, BJP is expecting miracle. But miracles rarely happen, at least in Bengal election. Over the last many decades, vote here is a war. Principle Opposition changed four times in 20 years, meaning voters are losing hope.
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Pratim Ranjan Bose retweetledi
New age "ralib galib chalib" threat given by TMC leader Imran Hasan Molla at Magrahat.
"If you don't vote for TMC, then be ready to leave with your wife and children"; said Imran.
But Trinamool believes in democracy
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@MAarafat71 Failed to handle the student protests, made provocative remarks, fled at the first instance, known as spokesperson but inaccessible, now giving lecture from abroad. That is #AwamiLeague leadership which workers do not abide by.
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Dr. Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury is the first female Speaker of Bangladesh National Parliament. She is a highly educated, polite, humble, and graceful woman. Yet, the way they have treated this innocent woman must be answered one day. This authoritarian rule has to come to an end.
#BangladeshCrisis
@ESandersFCDO @hrw @amnesty @AgnesCallamard @IHRF_English @IHumanRightsC @IhrcE @FCDOHumanRights @FranceskAlbs @Kennedy_HRC
@EUAmbBangladesh
@CWhiteleyEU @USAmbBangladesh @StateDRL @DRL_AS @LisaCurtisDC @State_SCA @SergioGor @BobBlackman @usembassydhaka @AyorkorBotchwey @SGCommonwealth @CJBdingo25 @Chellaney @mrubin1971 @ChathamHouse @kajakallas @lelispatricia @patlakath
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Two weeks to election, waiting to see the #BJP candidate of #Jadavpur constituency in #Kolkata. Is she already declared a winner? #WestBengalElection
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#Bangladesh: @trahmanbnp wants #AwamiLeague out. Did #India agree? @Sabir59 youtube.com/watch?v=mJdL7R…
YouTube
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These pro-#BJP trolls 'fighting' an internet war for #WestBengalElection remind me a famous Bengali character 'Payla' from Narayan Gangopadhyay's 'Tenida' series. Forced into a football match, he ended up making self-goal. Its bad, if they are getting paid. The recruiter should be fired for abysmally bad choices.
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Mr #Modi's advisers haven't done a good job by suggesting the PM to take a dig at "Istehar." This word made its entry in #Bengali vocabulary many decades ago and was made popular by the Left. It is now a known 'Bengali word.' #BJP is welcome to create its own examples. The worrying part is Mr Modi's advisers are failing him repeatedly. Ref the "Bankim-da" remark. @narendramodi
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পশ্চিমবঙ্গের #বাঙালি #মহিলা #মুখ্যমন্ত্রী-র ভাষাঃ "শালা।" @DilipGhoshBJP বারমুডা পরতে বললে নাকি কাদের 'সনসকিতি'তে ফোস্কা পড়েছিল? এটা প্রথমবার না কিন্তু। এর আগে আরো বহু মনিমুক্তো শোনা গেছে। এবারেই একটা শুনেছি, সেটার লিঙ্ক দিয়ে আর নিজেকে ছোট করলাম না। x.com/anunaba2002/st…
Annupam Bhattacharjee@anunaba2002
"নিজে 'শালা, দুর্নীতির ঠাকুরদাদা'— এটা কি মুখ্যমন্ত্রীর মুখের ভাষা? ভাষা-সন্ত্রাসে কি বাংলা ভাষার গরিমা-মর্যাদা, বাঙালির অস্মিতা এবার বিপন্ন হচ্ছে না? লোকে কিন্তু পাগলের প্রলাপ, ছিটগ্রস্ত এইসব বলছে..." @tathagata2 @Amitava_BJP @JasBJP @SankarDutta5111 @Santanurc1958
বাংলা
@Tinniz1 I dont entertain stupids and paid trolls. I got many calls from mainstream media after this post and, my stand is vindicated. Now go to your boss and report.
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@pratimbose You language is desperate, exactly like your data!
I thought you're a gentleman, who actually wanted to bring the change for Bengal.
But you proved that ur one of those clandestine left vultures with vile intentions!! Disgusting
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#WestBengalElection is all about ruling party and anti-ruling party. Ideology has little space here except that Muslims are core voters of TMC and BJP benefits from non-Muslim consolidation. The anti-establishment sentiments are strong. But high chances #BJP will fail again in 2026.
Winning was tough for BJP as 84 seats are preserves of Muslim votes and will go to non-BJP parties under any circumstances. It means BJP should have a strike rate of 75% in the rest 210. That needs tremendous efficiency and unity. Both are apparently missing, at least visibly.
I will not get into details here. But broadly the party's performance may remain below par in its stronghold of North Bengal. Vote here rests on complex caste and community calculations. BJP's excessive support to Rajbanshis may backfire.
The party did nothing to elicit confidence in voters, who suffered in the hands of TMC goons, in last 5 years. Insiders claim most of its district leaders are compromised.
Precision selection of candidates was important. They failed doing that in 20-30% cases. This should cost them. The first list was good. Trouble began from the second list. They are now changing candidates at the last minute.
The party is run as fiefdom of different leaders. Their sole aim is to give tickets to their cronies. All those surveys are eyewash. Even RSS involves itself in this tug-of-war.
BJP lost the 2024 LS in Bankura sinply because RSS dig their heel for its nominee A significant section of supporters voted for NOTA. The seat was gifted to TMC.
So far the story is no different in 2026. I see die-hard BJP activists who had braced adversities in last five years and stood for the party, are sitting on the sidelines in this poll season.
Some promises to defeat the party nominated (bad) candidate. Zero effort from the party to take everyone on board. NOTA may prove to be a major spoiler.
The market rumour is the party can get max 125-127 seats. This is based on their internal assessment. Yes SIR can bring some surprises. But, that may swing results either way in closely contested seats.
In final analysis, BJP is expecting miracle. But miracles rarely happen, at least in Bengal election. Over the last many decades, vote here is a war. Principle Opposition changed four times in 20 years, meaning voters are losing hope.
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@pratimbose It also did some major blunders in candidate selection in 2024 in some lok sabha seats. Had they fielded Dilip Ghosh from Medinipur and Agnimitra from Asansol where they were working since long, they would had easily won. Bankura and Coochbehar was lost because of internal fight
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@Tinniz1 Who the hell are you to decide, what i should write or speak?
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@pratimbose I never said BJP will win, but you should keep your scepticism in check! Urban elites like u do not fight on ground but are armchair experts!
You don't face the wrath of TMC goondas, BJP workers do!
You hv no contribution apart from demoralising the ppl.
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@Tinniz1 Then you all keep blowing the trumpet that will ensure BJP win.
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@pratimbose You might have your data etc, but with such commentry you're doing nothing but damaging the morale of the voters who really want to topple this govt!
After the results, u will relax at home, think of the BJP workers in the interiors! So stop this now
youtu.be/O94DjNVfDqk?si…
YouTube
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