oversubscribed
3K posts

oversubscribed
@primaryshares
My opinions, not recommendations. Trading across the capital structure for 35 years



we dont even have details of what happened yet and these mfs are already using this opportunity to try and blame me! the president uses the most violent rhetoric ever known to man, perhaps thats why its usually his own supporters trying to shoot at him.




The US-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday despite a US blockade, shipping data show.





"85% accuracy on Wall Street will get you 100% fired." Brett Caughran (@FundamentEdge) has managed analysts at Citadel, D.E. Shaw & tiger cub funds. His take on AI and the future of junior analysts: "There's almost no better time to be starting a career as a fundamental investor. These tools let junior investors get to the juicy part of the investment process more quickly." We cover: - Why the junior analyst role is transforming faster than any point in the last 20 years — and why the juniors who adapt will reach the real work of investing years sooner - The old grunt work that's already dead — and what's replacing it - Why billion-dollar funds won't cut analyst headcount, but the job description is changing dramatically - “Should I still learn Excel modeling?" — yes, because you can't debug what you don't understand - Why creativity & tenacity are becoming the new differentiators over raw quantitative skill - How multi-manager alpha factories scaled from $10B to $60B+ while sustaining double-digit returns — proof that more information hasn't compressed alpha - Why reading a 10-K with pen and paper still matters even when AI can summarize it in seconds - The most underrated skill in the best investors he's worked with: genuine curiosity Thanks so much to Brett (@FundamentEdge) for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:29 Frameworks for developing a differentiated variant perception 05:16 Financial drivers vs. narrative cycles: The Focus 5 framework 08:29 Analyzing the stock vs. business: Bayesian updating in public markets 12:52 AI as an intellectual power tool vs. consensus "alpha slop" 17:21 Accelerating the hunch-to-hypothesis pipeline with AI sniff tests 21:52 The evolution of junior analysts: From data entry to primary research 28:46 Why market microstructure and behavioral alpha prevent index efficiency 38:44 Training junior analysts: Earning the right to use power tools 48:28 LLMs as orchestration tools for human primary research 54:55 Teachable scientific process vs. revealed investment judgment 57:54 Common threads across Multi-Managers, Single Managers, and Tiger Cubs 59:49 Curiosity as a meta-skill and the art of system thinking







Building a trading bot with Claude If it works: i'm a genius If it doesn't: "it was a learning experience" There is no losing here 🙃 Turn on notifications if you want to see how I'm progressing with the process.









