Private Sats
16.4K posts

Private Sats
@privatesats
• Free open-source Bitcoin portfolio tracker • 100% private • No external APIs. Your sats, your data
Coming Soon Katılım Temmuz 2018
3.4K Takip Edilen2.1K Takipçiler

@RodrigoIbarrasa I see no reviews when I view your app on the App Store. Where does the 792 ratings figure come from?
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Private Sats retweetledi

@BorisJohnson Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi requires a central operator promising returns and paying early investors with funds from later ones. Bitcoin has no issuer, no promoter, and no guaranteed return—just an open, decentralized monetary network driven by code and market demand.
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@pierskicks @Delphi_Ventures Hi Piers, I’m an analyst currently working in big tech, designing and implementing various AI solutions. What’s the best way to reach out?
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Londonmaxxers: @Delphi_Ventures is hiring.
We primarily invest our own capital into extraordinary founders with unusual ways of seeing the world.
We're seeking an analyst obsessed with AI & deep tech who's drawn to doing things differently.
If this is you, please reach out.
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Prepaid Visa card, usable anywhere in the world 🌍💳.
Interested? Comment below to get early access!
privacygateway.io/prepaid-cards
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I found a profitable strategy in the last 300 Polymarket BTC 5m markets that buys "losing" tokens at 13 cents and cashes them out for $1.
It's not a reversal strategy. It's catching a recovery that Polymarket hasn't priced in yet.
Here's how it works: Polymarket prices UP/DOWN tokens based on whether BTC is above or below a locked-in strike price. If BTC drops $50 in the first 2 minutes, the UP token crashes to 13 cents because it looks like a lost cause.
But then I check Binance. If BTC is recovering hard, the current price has climbed $10+ above the session's average trading price and real buying pressure is accelerating, then BTC is catching back up to the strike. Polymarket still shows it as a "loser," while Binance shows the momentum has already shifted.
→ 216 triggers across 300 markets
→ 37% win rate
→ Average buy-in: 13 cents
→ +184.9% profit per trade
37% of the time, the recovery reaches the strike price and you collect $1 on a 13-cent bet. 63% of the time, it falls short and you lose 13 cents. You only need to win 13% to break even. You win nearly 3× that.
The key insight: Polymarket looks at what already happened (BTC is below the strike = loser). Binance tells you what's about to happen (momentum has flipped and it's coming back fast). That information gap is where the edge lies.
Want to run your own backtests?
Backtest your strategies/bots on sub-second BTC up/down market data going back a month with @polybacktest
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@probabilitygod Unless I’m wrong and the sell taker fee should get subtracted automatically for the net amount I receive in USDC. Do you know @probabilitygod. I might try vatic, seems useful for building on poly
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@probabilitygod Great article, thanks for sharing. I’m getting frequent allowance errors and wondering if this is the issue. My buys are filled via limit orders but sells are always takers. If I buy one share as a limit, then sell 1 share via market it can cause an error?
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I backtested 2,749 trades across 300 Polymarket BTC 5-minute markets.
I found two strategies with ZERO losses using $10 bet size:
Strategy 1: "Last 15 Seconds" → Buy whichever side is 98c+ with <15s remaining → 56 trades, 56 wins, $11.20 profit → $0.20 per trade, 100% win rate
Strategy 2: "30s + BTC Confirmation" → Buy at 98c only when <30s left AND BTC is $25+ from the price to beat → 33 trades, 33 wins, $6.60 profit → $0.20 per trade, 100% win rate
Why do these work?
With 15 seconds left and a side already at 98c, the market is essentially decided. BTC would need to reverse $25+ in under 15 seconds which never happened in 300 markets.
The catch? You're making 20 cents per trade on a $10 position. One loss = 49 wins erased. The edge is razor thin and only exists in a very specific window.
This is likely how the 423 win streak wallet operates, they're not predicting anything. They're just scooping near certain outcomes in the final seconds with serious size.
The real question: can you get filled at 98c with size and with<15s left, or does the liquidity dry up?
Disclaimer* Code for the backtest was generated by AI and the backtest data was provided by polybacktest
xghost🧸@0xxghost
Test phase done..... looking very good.
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@TismStrategy @CenturyOG It's already written in the image.
1 credit = 1 generated image
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yesterday was absolute chaos in the best way possible when we finally pushed the button on the video generation feature in oriorai.com
i watched the user dashboard light up and honestly it feels surreal seeing so many of you jumping in to turn static concepts into moving scenes on immediately. but i noticed something while looking at the usage patterns. people are being too careful. you are generating one clip and stopping because you are worried about burning through credits. that is not how you find the perfect shot. you need to iterate, you need to fail a few times to get that masterpiece.
so i decided to break the rules a bit just for the timeline right now. i want you to have the freedom to mess around without counting pennies. effective immediately for anyone seeing this: if you grab the 30 credit pack, i’m loading you with 45. if you pick up 100, you’re getting 125. and if you go for the 500 stack, i’m bumping it to 600. consider it a gift from me so you can actually push the tech to its limits.

ivy@notiiivy
3 days ago i said i was starting from zero. total ghost town. barely 72 hours later: 145 followers, 6.7k likes. the engagement is actually scary. honestly floored by how fast it moves when the content is right. consistency is the only thing that matters for the algorithm. if the face changes, you lose the audience. we’re generating both video and images with oriorai.com - character stays perfectly locked. every single visual and clip is generated according to a storyline, not random outputs. that’s the difference.
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@notiiivy @CenturyOG This doesn’t answer the question. How much do generations cost
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devs are making $10k-200k monthly on polymarket
no they're not lol
here's what those threads don't tell you
zero fees = zero friction for HFT shops to eat your lunch.
In an efficient market, these simple arbitrage opportunities are fleeting at best. High-frequency trading bots and sophisticated arbitrage algorithms continuously scan for such discrepancies, capturing profits within milliseconds.
You're not competing with other python hobbyists
You're competing with rust bots running on dedicated polygon nodes with sub-millisecond execution.
That "simple python script" from twitter?
For Python systems, these numbers were more in the 250-500 microsecond range per message, meanwhile actual HFT systems in rust/c++?
Processing time per quote message is about 12 microseconds.
that's 20-40x slower before you even place an order.
what you actually need:
- dedicated polygon RPC nodes (public ones rate-limit you into irrelevance). 99.99% uptime, 100% healthy nodes in production, and average latency max 86.5 ms for premium infrastructure
- VPS colocated near polymarket servers. Ultra-low latency and physically close to Polymarket's servers
- Code written in rust. There's literally a polymarket-hft crate optimized for trading scenarios requiring fast execution
- Proper quant algorithms you can't vibecode because garbage collection is extremely useful during development but often sub-optimal for certain high frequency trading strategies
so those "$200k/month" traders?
They exist.
They're the top 0.5% and they're running infrastructure that costs more than your yearly salary.


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@KyleMillerPDX @JustJoeFX @gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Something like this? nautilustrader.io/docs/nightly/i…
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@TismStrategy @JustJoeFX @gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Get a VPS with henztner. Poland should do. Use better websockets. Polys are too slow
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@KyleMillerPDX @JustJoeFX @gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Any websocket recommendations? Thanks, will try hetzner
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@JustJoeFX @gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I tried Netherlands and got good latency. Still not enough to compete with the successful bots though
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@gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Not working. Polygon/cloudflare Blocks Datacenter ips.
Tested with multiple aws Locations. And some smaller Providers. All are blocked from Post requests....
You can read but Not trade....
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@CryptoTaxJme @CryptoTaxJme do you guys also offer help in terms of declaring capital gains losses to offset future gains? Liquidation even in October hit me hard, so want to make sure I report it
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@mmmatt please follow back so I can DM. I have a question about this
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install dependencies and use start.sh file to enter
if u can't get it to work. oh well
github.com/mmarbmatt/matt…
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