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So excited about the Starship test flight!

Watch Starship's twelfth flight test twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@aboutberlin I like your website, but honest question: Would AI be able to find the answers without you? Most of the content seems not that hard to find otherwise, like the list of public holidays?

AI is killing All About Berlin. When you Google something, you used to get a link to my website, but now you get an AI-generated answer trained on my work. This has a devastating impact on traffic.

@RokoMijic @serene_euphoria Russia collapse and a cease fire are very different things. Give your rates and dates on Russia collapse

@serene_euphoria I'd have to think about rates and dates to bet on it but it looks like ~9 months until Russia collapses or there's a cease fire

People are so used to seeing nothing happening in Ukraine that they're going to be surprised when Russia breaks. It's coming! I thought Russia would have thrown in the towel in 2023, but nope they wanted to go all-in for some potato fields in The Donbas. Ukraine has exhausted Russian air defenses and is now hammering their industry and logistics from the air with drones and cruise missiles

@robinhanson If $X is 100 USD, who decides what $Y is?

Imagine I post $X in support of my blog, & if anyone disagrees w/ any claim I make there & posts $Y, & if I don't concede, judge rules who gets $(X+Y-J) where $J is judging fee. What should I call my post?

@robinhanson Maybe link to some studies? This is not obvious, as they often receive tax incentives + require major infrastructure costs for gov

Bizzare, as data-centers lower tax rates for people nearby.

not many people are talking about/hyping up robots. Good time to invest?

Watch a team of humanoid robots running a full 8-hr shift at human performance levels. This is fully autonomous running Helix-02 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Full duration and full thrust 33-engine static fire with Super Heavy V3

@pmarca "The next social network is just people reading peer reviewed papers"

Interesting.

Starship Flight 12: Booster 19 Grid Fin dancing. nsf.live/starbase

Bob Fosse in Little Prince movie, 1974 had a massive influence on Michael Jackson.

@cremieuxrecueil Are the ratings for the AI slop books going up? Is the trend that they will be higher rated than non-AI books at some point?

New Pangram validation! You know how most books on Amazon are AI slop now? If you didn't, look at the publication numbers. Compare those to the proportion Pangram flags as AI-generated. It's fully aligned with the implied numbers based on the rise over 2022 publication levels!

@robinhanson A lot of systems were very easy to hack before AI. With the your same arguments you would have predicted everyone getting hacked non-stop before AI, but most didn't because 1) it's illegal 2) not worth it. Just like most people/stores are easy to steal from.

Within a few years, we may face a "Hackastrophe", i.e., few years of greatly reduced access to software. overcomingbias.com/p/the-coming-h…

@robinhanson What if they build it next to poor people whose water, electricity becomes unaffordable and they can't just move to a different city

If there are externalities in the production or use of energy and water, those should be included in their prices. But if data-centers want to buy lots of energy and water at such corrected market prices, I don't see why I should have a problem with that.

@chrisman Feels like everyone’s skipping the part where Elon wanted the whole thing under Tesla. When they said no, the non profit stayed intact and a separate for profit spun out. Context matters a lot here.

0.1% of accounts on Polymarket make 67% of the profits. Among the top 0.1% of accounts in frequency of trades, 75% are profitable. But for the other 99.9%, the majority of accounts lose money.

Current AI custom prompt: You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can. Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

GitHub's former CEO gave his AI eyes. What happened next is equal parts hilarious and haunting

@catalinmpit I don't get this posts. You guys know AI can refactor and clean up code, right?

That's how it went before AI and how it goes after AI.