Robert Culp

Yes.

@shipwreckedcrew Voter ID with in-person voting and National Holiday on voting day would be enough.

There aren't 51 Senate votes for it. Voter ID maybe -- if brought up alone.

In the dead of night, with only five senators present on the floor and no one there to object, the Senate rushed through a DHS funding bill that deliberately left ICE and CBP unfunded. Now, they are leaving town. No SAVE America Act. ICE and CBP unfunded. Senate Republicans just gave the Democrats everything they wanted and more.

Tariff Objectives: • Reduce dependence on China • Encourage production at home • Shift supply chains to safer partners If those are the goals, the early results look less “mixed” — and more like expected short-term adjustment while longer-term gains begin to form. ⸻ 1. A Major Shift Away From China • China share of U.S. imports fell to ~7–9% • Down from ~21–22% in 2017–2018 • Roughly a 60% reduction in dependence • U.S.–China goods deficit fell $93.4 billion • Lowest in over 20 years Why this matters: • Less reliance on a geopolitical rival • More resilient supply chains • Reduced risk during crises • Greater U.S. bargaining leverage Even when production shifted to Vietnam or Mexico, that still reduced concentration risk — one of the core goals. ⸻ 2. Investment Appears to Be Following • Record reshoring + foreign investment announcements • 88% of 2024 announced jobs in high-tech industries • 90% in early 2025 — highest on record • Manufacturing construction near record highs • Projects already breaking ground Factories are not press releases. Once built, they tend to stay. Examples: • Stellantis: $13B U.S. expansion (~5,000 jobs) • Whirlpool: $300M Ohio investment (up to 600 jobs) These are long-term capital commitments — the kind that signal structural change. ⸻ 3. Early Signs of Domestic Production Shifts • Tariff-exposed industries +2.1% through early 2026 • +1.3% YoY (Feb 2026) • Long-run estimates: ~2.7% manufacturing expansion Protected sectors improving first is exactly what you’d expect early in a reshoring cycle. ⸻ Short-Term Adjustment Is Expected When someone stops drinking after years of dependence, the early symptoms can feel worse. But those symptoms are often part of recovery. Going back might ease discomfort — but undo long-term progress. Reducing dependence on foreign production can work the same way: short-term disruption, long-term resilience. ⸻ A Smarter Path Forward Tariffs don’t have to be all-or-nothing: • Refundable tariffs on steel (refunded if re-exported) • Pro-investment tax policy to offset input costs • Incentives to produce more at home while preserving trade ⸻ If these were the goals, the early results suggest: • Dependence on China falling sharply • Record reshoring in high-tech industries • Real capital investment underway • Early signs of domestic production shifting That looks less like “mixed results” — and more like short-term adjustment while long-term gains begin to emerge.

Coming up on 1-year anniversary of Liberation Day tariffs. 3 things that tariffs accomplished: $5 billion reduction in ag exports 100,000 fewer manufacturing jobs $25.4 billion increase in goods trade deficit

@arpitrage Expand it enough and gerrymandering becomes impossible

We should dramatically expand the House of Representatives

@zachdcarter The correct Friedman quote is “CONTINUED inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”. So a oil shock will raise prices but prices will cease to continue to rise as long as no additional shocks or monetary stimulus occurs.

This is the kind of stuff you have to put yourself through for “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” x.com/PeterSchiff/st…

Misquote: He actually meant inflation was 2.5 % without impact of tariffs. And tariffs added .5% to bring us up to 3%. I believe that estimate is still high as it assumes import prices wouldn’t have risen in absence of tariffs. Sources: - Williams speech: newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe… - Powell transcript excerpts in reports (e.g., Reuters/Yahoo Finance coverage confirming context): finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-sa…

Jerome Powell: "If you look at total core inflation, it's about 3%. Some big chunk of that, around 1/2 or 3/4, is actually tariffs."

@MichaelAArouet “Poland is just like the rest of Europe on immigration” is false. Poland has admitted many migrants, but overwhelmingly from Ukraine and Belarus. A very different pattern from the mass inflows that changed much of Western Europe. Poland’s Muslim population remains tiny (0.1%).

There is a popular myth that Poland enjoys its economic miracle because it didn’t accept immigrants. In reality, it did let them in, but unlike Western Europe, Poland offers no lavish welfare. Most immigrants work, integrate, and contribute to society. That’s the difference.

Poland issued ~489k first residence permits to non-EU citizens in 2024 (Eurostat), mostly to Ukraine (~46%) & Belarus (~31%)—both non-Muslim Slavic countries. Permits from Muslim-majority nations: small fraction. Poland's Muslim pop.: <0.1% (~10-35k people), among EU's lowest. High immigration, very low from Muslim countries. (237 chars)

The completely false idea that Poland has refused to let in immigrants continues to be promoted by the US right. In actual fact, Poland issued the EU's most residence permits to immigrants from outside the EU in every year between 2017 and 2022.

Bret Weinstein on Ivermectin and the accidental experiment no one wants to talk about: "80 cases. In 40 of those cases, the courts granted the family's request and Ivermectin was administered. In forty cases, they refused to intervene and no Ivermectin was given. In 38 of the cases where Ivermectin was given, the patient survived. In two, the patient died." "In 38 of the cases where no Ivermectin was given, the patient died. And in two, the patients survived." "So what that means is that chances of a result that if Ivermectin does not work are something like the chances of you guessing a random 15-digit number on the first try." They called it horse paste while families begged in court for a shot at survival and the numbers don’t lie. Why was a result this statistically impossible ignored by every major health authority?

@David_J_Bier @HicksCBER Important distinction: studies separating legal and illegal immigrants show legal immigrants have the lowest homicide rate (~1.1 per 100k), while illegal immigrants are roughly double that (~2.2–2.4). This shows the benefit of controlling our border.

Best data we have shows that immigrants are less likely to be convicted of homicides, including vehicular homicides, than the US-born

@amitylee13 Reality: 88% of recipients now pay ZERO tax on benefits (CEA). The small savings were for people who already were barely taxed—you don't save much on a tax you weren't paying. Biggest relief for middle-income folks who were fully taxed. Those people, saved $1500 per yr

The “no tax on Social Security” promise was misleading. I just did my mom’s taxes. They didn’t eliminate the tax. They added a temporary $6,000 senior deduction that reduces taxable income. Social Security is still taxed. Taxing seniors on benefits they already paid taxes into is absurd. Yet another bait-and-switch for campaign talking points. Do they really think their constituents won’t notice the thousands of dollars they still have to send to the IRS?

🤨

Yes

@WallStreetMav Yes. $50 billion to save Republic is a bargain. And we will save far more than that from reducing fraud.

If neocon Senators Mitch McConnell and John Thune demanded $50 billion for Ukraine in order to pass the Save Act and give us voter ID and US Citizen voting only … would you make that deal? That might be the way to get the Save Act passed, we have to bribe the senators.

Rick Scott for Senate Leader

@40yardhammer @j_kalla @TPCarney @TheArgumentMag I was relating to the $425 total expenditure. In total it is not going to make difference between living in poverty or not living in poverty. But if this person also got a latte every morning, drove a car more than needed, bought expensive clothes, etc. That could make difference

@quill67 @j_kalla @TPCarney @TheArgumentMag It's weird that you see this data point and think it happens in isolation. Why would you do that when it alone represents dozens of decisions made across the year?

Today in @TheArgumentMag, Milan Singh and I do a deep dive into the data on who is ordering food delivery. theargumentmag.com/p/whos-really-…

@40yardhammer @j_kalla @TPCarney @TheArgumentMag Maybe but $425 per year by itself is not enough to change their well being especially if closer to the 50k range. Especially if students who will make far greater amounts later in life l

@quill67 @j_kalla @TPCarney @TheArgumentMag 4. Poor people make poor decisions and thus stay poor.

Is @megbasham right?