Raphael

Made another post on SubStack. Where does the money in AI accrue, and how can Australia get a piece of the pie. (Spoiler: not by building fabs)

@pleasedontatme 👈this guy’s committed to the urbanist experience

There are whole other universes out there.

They made his head poke out the bottom photo

@gbrl_dick @clarejtbirch The flip side is Morgan Stanley fine tuning a GPT 3 model on all their troves of internal data, only for GPT 4 to come out, and the vanilla version was better at all the internal tasks. I.e. is specialised only going to work if general hit a wall?

my case is just that i didn’t think we’d see returns to specialised models, but it looks like we are. i wouldn’t have believed that databricks was going to train a model beating frontier big labs on specific benchmarks, and now they just did it. my questions is really: what specifically did i get wrong here?

in 2024 i was very persuaded by the takes of my big lab friends that large models would just end up better than everything. was this wrong because structurally there are better returns to specialisation than we realised, or was it wrong because compute became a constraint earlier than expected?

@dannolan Still need inference providers for their ram in order to keep context length maxing

if this is equivalent to a cloud model for the workloads (and it will be for loads) surely it's a bad sign for inference providers and frontier labs

@stephenhaney Why did we have to have sound on?

Hello! Today we're releasing Paper Desktop Paper is now a canvas for Cursor, Claude Code, Codex. Any agent can read and write html to Paper. • push or pull from your codebase • pull real data from anywhere • less work, more design What will you ship? Sound on 🎶

@downroundpod Why were we shadow banned

Been a while since we've done a Q&A — drop your burning questions below Anything you've been curious or confused about. Serious inquiries only. Time wasters and jokers blocked and banned 👇👇👇

When da podcast smoke too tough

@davz_official Have wanted this for 10 years

the absolutely insane amount of attention this post received needs to be scientifically studied

@pdrmnvd The doctor was a woman

As I was walking to St Ives, I met a man with 12 Mac Minis, every Mac Mini has 12 Clawdbots, Every Clawdbot had 12 Ralph Wiggums, Every Ralph Wiggum has 12 Claude Max Plans. Mac Minis, Clawbots, Wiggums, Max Plans, how many tokens were spent on my way to St Ives?

Nicotine (administered through a reusable vaporising device) provides the alertness, the crystalline mental acuity. Beer yings the yang, so to speak, placing you in a den of kindly feeling. But the picture isn’t complete before the Thumb navigates to a most amusing YouTube Short

@bubbleboi He says this kind of stuff in every big speech, and they have done for 30 years

They really are invading aren’t they. Everyone tells me they aren’t they tell me it’s just military drills but when President Xi speaks I listen.. 👂

@aleabitoreddit They are all shitcos with the exception of SMIC imo

Happy New Year! The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies. Look for beaten down names like $MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road. The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure. So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting) But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.

He’s starting to look more Chinese than Chinese Elon

@liljuuliet I think it’s probably got more to do with the fact that 45 year olds now get fired for groping 23 year olds and they didn’t previously

office parties died because everyone has to insta story any slight potential chance of Fun they might be having nothing is exclusive and cool anymore

@levelsio @jingbenzhengyi Dude, chill, he was being friendly

@jingbenzhengyi Typical retarded anti-foreigner take I get same from Portuguese a lot pointing out my experiences that aren't all perfect Don't be like that man

🇨🇳 Okay we lost about $150 in power banks and got them confiscated from us at the airport flying to the next city in China because the power banks didn't have the Chinese certification called CCC They have every other certification known to man (you know like EC and FCC) but not CCC "CCC (China Compulsory Certificate) is a mandatory certification required for a wide range of products to be legally sold, imported, or used in China, covering aspects like safety and Electromagnetic Compatibility" Ironically they're new Anker batteries and Anker is a Chinese brand and they're made in China but that didn't convince the airport lady Lots of other non-Chinese ppl (but Asian) got rekt and it was a mountain of power banks thrown out Getting your stuff thrown away in front of you is annoying everywhere, but especially when it's new batteries We asked if we could ship them by post to our next hotel (there was a desk shipping stuff next to it) but she denied, very unfriendly lady but then again isn't every airport lady in the entire world usually unfriendly? They seem to be really really really aggressive about hand alchol, lighters and batteries with foreigners, probably for a reason 🚬 I was asked literally 6 times in a row by different people if I had a lighter on me, after the 6th time saying "I don't smoke" I had to shout it which seems to actually work well, a lot of esp age 50 and up people shout in China (which is the opposite of Japan of course), but the loudness of your voice here is part of the communication and sometimes work to shut everyone up and make the point 🤣 Then my bag was opened to find every single electronic device while they say "battery battery" like even about an Airpods box, crazyyyy And gf had to throw away her cute hand alcohol spray thing that every IG girl has, which made her sad Anyway not the most nice experience for foreigners visiting China in this case especially when you travel you really need a powerbank to survive the journey cause your phone runs out of power quick and travel distances in China are long (just a car ride to a hotel or mall can easily be 1 hour) And inb4 "omg n00b", none of the batteries sold outside China now have the CCC mark, so no you can't prep for this, thank you 😊 Please fix @xijinping

@stevehind You’re giving them too much credit imo. 2nd order thinking?

Regular workflow: * Cold email from VC * Ask ChatGPT: Has {firm} made an investment in {my space}? * My reply to them: "Your fund recently invested in a direct competitor, I don't think we'd be able to work together." Makes more sense to attribute to malice over incompetence?

The boys in critical minerals group chat are salivating for the ASX to open. I haven’t felt this energy since during the COVID lock downs when they announced they were opening the pubs

@zoink Minutes and hours is less of an issue than months not having the same number of days. We need to sort that out first.

OK, hear me out on this one. 10 hour days. 100 minutes / hour. 100 seconds / minute. Noon is 5:00. Midnight = 0:00 or 10:00. Base-12/60 time is a Babylonian fossil. Just because they didn't figure it out during the French Revolution doesn't mean it can't be done.