Rob Epstein
54 posts



@TheRohanVarma @sama This is the dumbest offer I’ve ever seen to startup founders. Literally bearish on anyone dumb enough to take it and you should’ve accounted for that in the offer.
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Yesterday @sama just offered to invest $2M of OAI credits into any current YC company as an uncapped SAFE.
If I was in YC today, here is why I would take the deal:
1. You will spend that much $ on tokens building your product quicker than you think.
The best AI-leveraged engineers are spending ~$10k+ per month on tokens. Thats $1.2M/year for a 10 person engineering team. The OAI deal means you don’t have to think twice about accelerating your engineering.
2. OAI tokens are worth 2X Anthropic tokens.
Our frontier models are ~50% more token efficient than Ant’s. This means our $2M in GPT tokens is worth $4M in work accomplished with Opus.
3. You can use the tokens on the API.
This means you can offer agentic products to customers without worrying about price or charging while you find PMF. Any product you offer that is useful with agents will use a non-trivial amount of tokens. Worrying about those costs while finding PMF doesn’t seem worth it.
4. The dilution will be minimal if you find PMF as an AI-native product and raise a Series A.
A lot of series A’s I see these days are in the $100-$200M valuation range. $2M at that valuation is 1-2% dilution, which is very worth it if it allowed you to defer raising as much in your seed in order to pay for tokens.
Would be curious how folks are thinking about it! Definitely an interesting offer to consider 👀
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Well so much for that. Already lost. The system is utterly fucked and broken. @stripe
48-page evidence package. Easy to read, Table of contents, filled with visuals (a junior bank employee could easily understand everything).
The customer used the product for 49 days, was logged in 13 hours before filing the chargeback, then canceled the subscription 5 hours after the dispute was already filed. *Technically they are still ACTIVE.
Here's everything we submitted:
PAYMENT INTEGRITY
• AVS postal-code check: PASS
• CVC check: PASS
• Stripe Radar score: Normal (22 / low risk)
• Auth success rate on customer email: 100%
• Card brand, last-4, fingerprint, exp, billing ZIP all confirmed by issuer
CUSTOMER USE POST-CHARGE
• 35 distinct active days in 49 days
• 393 authenticated session-refresh events
• 17 long-form SEO articles generated
• 18 AI images generated
• 3 WordPress sites configured (admin credentials added)
• 4 Google accounts authenticated via OAuth
• Customer added their own paid OpenAI API key (BYOK)
• 4 team members added
TIMING
• 49 days between charge and dispute
• Logged into the dashboard 13 hours BEFORE filing the chargeback
• Canceled the subscription 5 hours AFTER the dispute was filed
INDEPENDENT IP CORROBORATION
• Stripe captured IP at checkout: Manchester, UK
• Microsoft Clarity captured 22 of 38 sessions over 60 days: also Manchester, UK
• Two unrelated 3rd parties placing the same person in the same city across payment + 60 days of authenticated use
THE KICKER - THE CUSTOMER'S OWN PUBLIC WEBSITE CURRENTLY DEPENDS ON OUR PRIVATE CDN
• Articles generated on his account are LIVE on his own public WordPress sites
• Page source contains img tags pointing INSIDE our private R2 bucket
• Last-Modified headers on those CDN files match the EXACT minute his account generated them
• Currently fetched by every visitor to his website
CRYPTOGRAPHIC IDENTITY CHAIN (Automattic / Gravatar)
• Every WordPress author avatar = SHA-256(author email)
• 3 of his sites, 3 perfect SHA-256 matches against the gmail addresses in our DB
• Automattic has no relationship with us, the customer, or the bank
• Effectively unforgeable email-to-WP-admin binding
DOMAIN OWNERSHIP (third-party attestation)
• Google Search Console verified ownership on 4 separate domains
• Public WHOIS: 2 of his domains registered 9 SECONDS APART through the same registrar account
• Both registered 5 MONTHS BEFORE he bought our subscription
• Pre-existing content business, not a stolen-card test
VISA CE 3.0 ELIGIBLE
• Same payment credential had a $0.00 trial-start invoice marked "paid" 7 days before the disputed charge
• Same customer, email, payment method, subscription
• Exactly the prior-undisputed-transaction proof Visa CE 3.0 requires
The chargeback dispute system is broken.

Chris Riley@LCSlates
48 pages, 2hrs later, fingers crossed.
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When Tyler Oliveira exposed Somali welfare abuse in Minneapolis, Republicans praised him. When he did the same thing in an orthodox Jewish community in New York, the very same people called him a Nazi.
0:00 Oliveira's Rise to Fame
7:17 America's Demographics Are Changing Quickly
17:52 Gen Z and the Exploitation of America's Welfare System
28:02 Exposing the Hypocrisy and Hatred of Free Speech
39:38 The Infiltration of the Public School System
43:05 The Exploitation of Welfare Programs in New Jersey
50:14 Volunteer Law Enforcement
57:56 Why Was Oliveira's Patreon Deleted?
1:01:48 Florida's Attacks on Free Speech
1:07:31 The Lessons Oliveira Learned
1:12:10 Has This Hurt Oliveira's Business?
1:13:14 Growing Up in a World of Identity Politics
1:16:10 How Does This End?
1:18:48 Paranoia Among Whites and Gen Z's Feelings About the Future
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@Sara4zah @TalkTV @petercardwell It’s illegal to say you support Hamas in the UK. That’s why. He can go to jail. They don’t have free speech like America.
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@TalkTV @petercardwell Why was he stammering when talking about Hamas? Was he scared of any threat after the interview? Poor Imam.
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"The Muslim community does not want anyone individual to disturb the whole peace in that institution"
Imam Qari Asim says that if somebody in his mosque was crossing the boundaries, he would report them to the Police.
@petercardwell
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@AviFelman People don't have any idea how much compute of every kind we're going to need in the next few years. The question is whether we'll have the energy for it...
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Knowing Codex is better for complex tasks makes me bullish on @chamath and 8090
He points out that Codex is much better for meaty, large problems, while Claude feels good for more day to day work.
We’re improving model personality so Codex feels even better for pair programming.
But we think pair programming with agents is a local optimization. The longer term pattern is delegation.
Most people just aren’t asking agents to do ambitious enough work.
The people who are delegating use Codex.
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Nearly 4 years ago, @marcbaghadjian and I had the crazy idea to build a credit card company. I was 19.
Not the Odyssey, nor the Iliad, but our own small epic that we wrote day by day.
We knew the odds and we embarked anyway. Fueled only by hope, we made immense sacrifices with no certain return. The idea changes and you change.
Behind every photo of two founders, there is an army of people that came together. None of this could be possible without our incredible team, investors, and partners.
Today is the end of a chapter in our epic, and the start of a new one.

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@sagharborcap @AviFelman Just another signal to rich people to get the fuck out of the city / they're not welcome to keep their offices here. Death spiral
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@oliverbrocato Dude this account is literally a man you keep getting trolled
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