Kubera

@StockZombie222 @HenryInvests @Rebellionaire @paulxgu @Upstart We already heard him on the ERs last couple of times, first one was underwhelming as it showed a lack of preparation/Naivety to the question on sudden dip on originations. We got contrary responses between Paul and Dave

@rounder74339385 @HenryInvests @Rebellionaire You're not even excited to hear from our new CEO on the earnings conference call? I can't wait to hear from @paulxgu tomorrow and also listening to @HenryInvests coverage. @Upstart won't be misunderstood by the market forever. #SuperGu

⚡️@Rebellionaire Upstart $UPST Q1 2026 Earnings Preview - All Systems 'Gu'? 🤔 For 1Q26, I believe Upstart will post $303M in revenue (+42.3% YoY) while remaining GAAP profitable and reducing balance sheet exposure. What I'm excited about: A fresh start with Paul Gu as CEO, potential for new KPIs (Cash Line!) and a new slide deck. Post-4Q25 PRs suggest funding is a non-issue, eager to hear more on this as well as the bank charter. Biggest concerns: substantial (too much) take rate % compression, private credit hiccups, macro, poor leadership communication. For more, read the entire 27-page review (don't worry - lots of images!) 👇📝rebellionaire.com/post/upstart-q… Note - AI summary at the top of the webpage, scroll to the bottom for the complete PDF. Not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult our own financial, tax or legal advisor before making any investment decisions. Great effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this report, but please conduct your own due diligence.

@davegirouard @Upstart So upstart will lose the platform fee in the future?

From what I'm seeing at @upstart, I now believe in two futures that seem incongruent: 1. LLMs will absorb a huge portion of the app layer 2. LLMs will be commoditized when supply catches up

Rafa Nadal won the 2022 French Open with his left foot completely numb. His doctor had been injecting anesthetic into the nerves before every match, for two solid weeks. After one of those matches he couldn’t walk, and his father had to carry him to the hotel. That was his 14th French Open title. No tennis player, male or female, has ever won the same tournament that many times. His career record at the French Open was 112 wins, 4 losses. That 96.6% win rate is the highest by any player at any major in history. Only three men ever beat him in Paris: Söderling in 2009, Djokovic twice, and Alexander Zverev in his final appearance in 2024. The forehand that powered all of it spins faster than a washing machine on spin cycle. About 3,200 rotations per minute on average, peaking at 5,000. Federer’s spins at 2,500. Sampras and Agassi were at 1,800. Nadal’s ball spins about 80 times in the time it takes to cross the court. The condition in his foot is called Müller-Weiss syndrome. It is a rare disease where a small bone in the middle of the foot slowly collapses. He has had it since 2005. There’s no cure. He once said he doesn’t remember what playing without pain feels like. He retired last November in tears, after Spain lost a Davis Cup quarter-final to the Netherlands. Across 23 years he won 22 Grand Slams, 92 tour titles, and 1,080 of his 1,308 singles matches. He held the world number one ranking for 209 weeks and earned $134.9 million in prize money. The Netflix series drops May 29, in the middle of this year’s French Open. He turns 40 five days later. The tagline is “A Life Beyond Limits.” That was the job description of a tennis career he played, for years, on a foot doctors said could not hold up.

So far this year $UPST $3.65 Billion in forward flow agreements $333 Million sale of loans from Balance sheet 4 new bank partners Launched Cash Line 61% growth in Q1 originations $100 Million buyback CEO transition Bank Charter application submitted

Given how LC and SOFI reacted after the earnings, not expecting any great reaction from the market despite how the actual ER will be. We might go back to $25-27 unfortunately post ER. Hope it doesn’t turn out to be a huge opportunity cost with other AI stocks shooting to the moon

"I think we can build something much, much bigger than what we’ve already built, and I think that it can be one of the most important generational companies of our time," said Upstart CEO Paul Gu. bit.ly/4sOOGHn

@HenryInvests @Tai_Chen_Hsiang Also very weak volumes fintech, not much exciting space for investors this season where AI buildout is stealing the spotlight. Got to wait for the tide to turn very patiently 😄

@Tai_Chen_Hsiang You will drive yourself crazy trying to understand each move in the markets. Financials are having a rough day and the stock has been on a tear, that's my guess but not sure

Upstart $UPST partner Pathward Financial $CASH just reported earnings, highlighting strong origination growth 'primarily driven by the new contract announced during FY25 within consumer finance.' Pathward announced their partnership with Upstart in November of 2025.

@davegirouard Silly question but how many of GPU clusters does Upstart need to run your models while underwriting customers? Trying to understand how much of reliance is upstart on maintaining access to GPUs and do you own your own GPUs or lease it from datacenters?

Would like to exchange my Allbirds for GPUs if possible?

Can’t wait!!

The idea that god would wait 13 billion years (universe start) or even 4.5 billion years (earth formation) or even 8 million years (human ancestor identified) or even 300,000 years (modern human identified) before he sent himself down in the guise of his son to be brutally murdered to forgive himself for misdemeanours against himself is too ridiculous to be believed in the 21st century.

$UPST investors at $26 price

@Elleson08 What’s your cost basis?

Patience is the ultimate edge. The hardest part of long-term investing? Doing absolutely nothing. Waiting for the value to be realized is incredibly simple in theory, yet incredibly difficult in practice. Ignore the noise. Trust the process. Position: 10,000 $UPST | Market Value: ~$238,500 USD (Based on $23.85/share) #UPST #HODL #FundamentalFocus #RetireEarly

@HenryInvests If $UPST crosses 250 in the next 2 years, you’ll be one of the most followed analysts on X by the retail crowd. Are you ready for the fame? 😄

@HenryInvests Yea remember his response. Went through some of the trust pilot reviews this quarter and yet to find any Auto/Heloc reviews, so hopefully that’ll be the upside surprise in the upcoming ERs as it’s not captured in the UTPI

@rounder74339385 Thanks. Yeah - understandable and I think the market is doubtful too. Here is what Sanjay had to say when he was asked that exact question on the latest earnings call.

⚡️Preliminary UpstartIQ March Originations and 1Q26 Revenue Estimates #UTPI / $UPST Upstart will be posting March origination data this Friday (the 3rd of the month). I believe March originations will come in ~ $1,154M, up 7.3% MoM, up 45.6% YoY. Here's how I arrive at that estimate (view graphics): 1) Originations ($M) per day is simply monthly origination volume / number of days in the month (this is different from the normalized metric Upstart provides) 2) I estimate that Originations ($M) per day will grow directly in line with the growth of Trustpilot Reviews per day. 3) I then apply this growth rate in MoM reviews per day (-3.1% from Feb to Mar) to Originations ($M) per day and multiply it by the 31 days of March. That puts me at $1,154M in expected origination volume for March. Obviously, the 1:1 ratio/relationship between Trustpilot reviews per day growth and Origination ($M) per day growth is overly simplistic, so please take that with a grain of salt. It did prove rather accurate in February, however ($1,069M est. vs $1,075M actual). Now that I have all of the monthly origination volume for 1Q26 (the reported January and February numbers, plus my March estimate), I can attempt to calculate Upstart's take rate per month by dividing monthly fee revenue by monthly originations. Because Upstart does not provide fee revenue by month (instead only providing it for the quarter), each month's revenue from fees is a pro rata share of the respective quarter's fee revenue. This is not a perfect methodology. monthly fee revenue / monthly origination volume = take rate %. You can see that take rate has been trending down (11.9% in July 2024 -) 7.6% December 2025), reflecting management's commentary towards the intentional dynamic of reducing take rates to achieve larger market share, pass savings along to the borrower, plus the dynamic of lower margins for new products Auto & HELOC. For 1Q26 (January - March) I had previously assumed that Take Rate would trend down slightly from the already subdued level of December 2025. I think that was too overly conservative. While December's take rate was 7.6%, the blended average for 4Q25 was still 8.3%, as compared to 9.1% in 3Q25, 8.6% in 2Q25, and 8.7% in 1Q25. For 1Q26, I am choosing to apply a blended 8.07% take rate across all three months in the quarter. This represents a ~63 bps decline from the 8.7% blended average of 1Q25, or a decline of 7.2% YoY. When you apply my take rate assumptions (8.1% Jan, 8.1% Feb, 8.0% Mar), you arrive at monthly fee revenue taken as take rate * monthly originations ($). When adding those estimates together, I am arriving at a revenue from fees estimate for Upstart in 1Q26 at ~ $269M as compared to $265M in 4Q25. Remember, the first quarter of the year is always seasonal and almost always has lower revenue than that of the fourth quarter. As for net interest income, Upstart has guided for $100M for 2026. My assumption (a pure guess) is that NII will look something like $31M -) $27M -) $23M -) $19M (totals $100M) as they make progress reducing their balance sheet over the year. When you add together the $269M and $31M NII estimates, that yields $299.9M in 1Q26 total revenue. Net interest income is doing a bit of heavy lifting here, but the quarter is also seasonal. This would put total revenue up 1.3% QoQ (1Q25 saw -2.6% QoQ, 1Q24 -8.9% QoQ) and would represent 40.6% YoY growth. The average analyst estimate for 1Q26 today sits at $298.5M, so Upstart is right in line with what's expected in this scenario. For those who prefer the more 'old school' UpstartIQ method, I am also arriving at a rough estimate of $300M for 1Q26 revenue. In this scenario, I am assuming that once again net interest income comes in around $31M (versus $31M in 4Q25), Servicing Platform Revenue of $44.2M (up 3% QoQ - the same growth rate seen in 4Q25) which brings total non-core revenue to $75.2M. With 3,229 1Q26 Trustpilot Reviews and a Review Rate assumption of 0.67% (flat versus 4Q25), I arrive at 481,940 loans originated. Applying a Revenue per loan of $467.90 to that (down 4% QoQ, effectively the same decline experienced from 3Q25 to 4Q25), yields $225.5M in total core revenue. Adding together the $75.2M and $225.5M estimates total $300.7M in 1Q26 revenue, closely aligning with my previous $299.9M estimate. These are not necessarily my final estimates, but it's how I'm thinking about the quarter today. I will be closely monitoring review trends in April leading into ER to try and get a gauge for how 2Q26 is trending. Right now, despite the tumultuous headlines, I am not seeing any direct impact on Upstart visible in 1Q26. Of course, I can be totally wrong on that. Believe it or not, I am not an insider lol. But back in 3Q25, I sounded the alarm when #UTPI fell rapidly, and it turned out Upstart had tightened their models. As of today, I am not seeing anything in the data that is overly concerning. 🫡

@nachonnmdr Hope so! Even $40 seems like a very steep climb right now

Also, there's no point in trying to blame the company for the stocks performance. Almost every fintech peer ( $PGY, $AFRM, $SOFI, $KLAR) has been destroyed since last October, along with private credit names ( $OWL, $BX, etc). Once dust settles, $100s will come easily.

Today we finally closed the gap from Q2 24 ER. Quite unbelievable, considering how fundamentals improved in the meantime. Reminder: This stock has done 3x/4x in months with no fundamentals, just market ripping. This is why I find this to be the cheapest the stock has ever been.

No bottom in sight, looks like we might expect under 20 soon, that’s a 50% drawdown after Paul bought it, wow!

@showfortennis Sitting in makeshift stands feels like they can collapse anytime,

There is no comparison The Miami Open lost all the vibes when they moved to Hard Rock. Haven’t heard a soul rave about their experience in the Miami Gardens

@CrickeTendulkar When poetry meets art!

Tell me How do I explain this to a non cricket fan this is the most beautiful thing .. 🩷🫴🏼 Sachin Tendulkar