Underground Trader

@A_May_MD This aged quite poorly

$NKTR at $100 post data feels highly reminiscent of $ABVX at $60 post data. IMO people just have not woken up to what the data mean. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Can’t believe I keep buying more of this 🤦🏻‍♂️ I really need to reduce my ballooning exposure to this thing at some point 🤣

Recalling that $NKTR was barely green at ~$40/share at this time on the day of the atopic derm maintenance data. Then the stock rallied all day long. Then they raised cash at $58/share...Then the stock ran up to $85 over the next few weeks... $NKTR quickly saw well over 100% gains on the immediate post-data prices and then almost a 50% on the post OFFERING prices... IMO we should see something similar today and the days after. Offering should be coming soon IMO, hopefully at a higher price than the measly $100 opening of this morning. Then, I hope that history repeats itself with another sustained rally after that! I really really really don't get why $NKTR is priced this low (~$100)...yes, I have been saying that for well over a year now, but when I first started saying it, the stock was at <$10/share! 😅

@u_2399 @PrestonWidmer @adamfeuerstein But is it really?

What is driving the $ALDX bounce?

@adamfeuerstein Seems like just a squeeze? $ALDX stock should be under $1

@zohmbastic $BCRX Betaville reporting M&A talks ongoing

$BCRX wonder why it's getting attention, no pos. early 2026 ph1

@RepzdaCanes @DivesTech @fundstrat How do you know current shares outstanding? They have been using the ATM like a drunken sailor $ORBS

$Orbs Something like $200m in cash $Wld and $Eth , trading at $150m -24% yesterday. Backed by @DivesTech and @fundstrat Buy back in place. How low can they bring it?

@DeltaNinety You got lucky with Einhorn CNBC pump. It will probably give it all back tomorrow. And the other 3 stocks you "called" are total dogshit

$NKE $ACHC $PYPL $IBIT Have great potential for swing trades to make a move up higher. I do have positions in each of them from last week.

@DeltaNinety Yeah you called the Einhorn CNBC pump lol

Great pop on $ACHC today, Still has a lot of room to go higher. Called it yesterday.

@lcccc333 @MarketOmega How would you even know if it was overvalued? Are you a biotech expert?

@MarketOmega I would never short a biotech stock with strong data, no matter how overvalued it is. $NKTR

$NKTR is very tricky. Has a sort of low float, but high IO, and easy to borrow. Also has an ATM in progress which you would think that would make it fade eaily, instead it's doing the opposite. I'd be cautious shorting it.

@crypto_biotech Market doesn't think it's a big deal after all

$GLSI ANOTHER ✅ Been in this for years. Go through my posts for DD. Will be the biggest breakthrough in HER2+ Breast Cancer in years. And with the recent Open Arm success..multiple indications possible- raising TAM to God-knows-how-high. If you are curious on management’s confidence I can help. They’ve locked up their shares every year since IPO. Most impressive? They’ve NEVER sold a single share. Not 1. Take a look. Impressive? Extraordinary? You decide. 👇👇👇

Bought the $NKTR dip. Modified IL-2 works in alopecia strata. Even including the 4 erroneously enrolled patients, the separation of both arms from placebo and continued decline in SALT scores all the way out the week 36 is very encouraging. I’m fine to ignore the mITT stuff altogether. We don’t need to play any statistical games IMO to see that the data there are good enough and certainly well above the bar of the market consensus that was basically “this won’t be active”. This has a high probability of success in a P3 trial, which would make it the first and only safe FDA approved biologic for AA. So what do we have in Rezpeg then? This would be a multi-indication derm drug. The best analogue would be Galderma’s Nemluvio. Nemluvio is approved but very inefficacious in atopic derm (still gets used because we don’t have other MoAs in atopic derm). Nemluvio’s 2nd indication is Prurigo Nodularis. Note that alopecia Areata is a ~10x larger marker than prurigo nodularis… So $NKTR would have a dual indication launch that we can compare to Nemluvio expect: -$NKTR is *far* better than Nemluvio in atopic dermatitis -$NKTR’s 2nd indication is ~10x larger than Nemluvio’s. Now, Nemluvio is having a killer launch. Galerma is projecting Nemluvio peak sales >$2B and it’s going to be blockbuster already in ‘27. Some sellsiders have Nemluvio doing >$3B peak. If Nemluvio was a standalone company, its valuation would almost certainly be between $7-$10B. In the mid $40s now $NKTR is falling below *1* billion. I see a drug in Rezpeg that will clearly be superior to Nemluvio in atopic derm and has a chance to establish itself as the safe go-to biologic in an AA market that is a *way* larger TAM than Nemluvio’s PN. Even if it were to be “just” a post-JAK AA maintenance drug, that’d still make it the dominant revenue generator in the AA space as the chronic treatment of choice. This could legitimately be a $2B+ drug like Nemluvio. The market just constantly doubts $NKTR for whatever reason. This thing was at <0.4x cash at times before the atopic derm data. The stock gets virtually no credit, so I’m not surprised to see this happening again today. They’ve got the next-to-market MoA after the (now floundering) OX40 class, and IMO rezpeg will be used in 2 indications. That’s a big deal. This is worth far more than $1B in my book, and IMO the stock should be green today after showing it is meaningfully active in AA. That said, I’m not surprised that it’s red currently. Par for the course for $NKTR. Once they raise $$$ for the AtD P3 this stock should do very well, especially into maintenance data for AtD (and AA) in 1H26. Eventually I think the market will appreciate the >$10B void/vacuum left behind by OX40 flopping and start giving $NKTR some credit for their ability to help fill it.

@jfais20 Next time get a position ;)

$IMNM- $10 to $26, phase 3 in desmoid hits primary & ALL secondaries. HR of just 0.16!

@Vulpescap p3 ($UTHR) vs p1 ($CTNM). This is many years from anything commercial and by then they may have lost the market. This really shouldn't be trading much over cash value

So as I was saying about clinical validation, their IPF asset looks interesting. $BMY has validated the MOA twice (LPA1R antagonism in two trials with two different molecules). On the surface, it looks like $CTNM has better PK, and whether that makes a positive impact or not, I'd expect their drug should work at least as well as $BMY's. The latter saw a dose dependent effect in both trials, so good potency/PK could plausibly matter. POC data is a long way out but the valuation (FD $300M) seems unfairly low. On the day that $UTHR announced positive IPF data, its market cap went up by $4.5B. Company is funded to '28. Pipeline is a big mess -- non-validated MOA in MDD (yikes), chronic pain (yikes), PPMS (yikes). I like this more than I did yesterday before they failed their RRMS trial. Trash begone. Feels like a similar setup to $TERN. I bought around $5 last year when it traded solely on obesity headlines with an obesity asset that didn't have a chance. CML was valuable. For $CTNM, IPF is valuable, in my opinion. If the LPA1R antagonism class takes 30% of the IPF market and $CTNM gets 40% of that with Ofev pricing, that's about $800M peak. I think there's upside from this estimate. With any luck, more of their pipeline garbage will fail in the clinic. Still working on this one and interested in informed takes.

@PirateWaffle @IC50_cent Just how many shares did you short in the $9s bro?

@IC50_cent Yes yes, I get all that from the move (or lack of), however: what? Algos and markets haven’t been that sophisticated in forever, particularly in this tape - dunno, feels dislocated … but whatever, I fixate.

$CTNM ok uno mas, if this shit opens flat on a lead asset phase 2 trial failure, I’ll fall out of my chair laughing. $XBI

@PirateWaffle $CTNM Why was this up so much from July anyway?

$CTNM -17% for a phase 2 fail of your lead asset in this market? lol where’s Samson … he’s propping this shit up. $XBI

@Lord_of_Biotech What value range do you put on the CVR?

Ding Dong! $RPTX gets bought by a subsidary of $XOMA for 1.82 US$ plus a CVR. I think that CVR is super valuable.

@Chazztheshort @A_May_MD Is it true what this clown says that you are out $NKTR?

$NKTR. Adam M is out of this apparently. I am your new master now.

@monaco_biotech Lol. Terrible deal. Probably trades in the $4s on this

$ADVM Cash $3.56 + CVR $8.91. Huge CVR.

$NERV thinking back below $5 by tomorrow

@singhlosophy shutup dipshit

The $MIRA results look significant. Chronic pain is a massive market space especially as people become more and more sedentary in their lifestyle. I'm going to dig but this has 10x potential in the next few years if the dominoes are in place.