Sam

@MagicRatSF @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 sure, I guess. Like I said originally, your claim flies in the face of everything ever said about prediction markets and all the profit MM's have made on prediction markets but yea, I'm wrong

@samtb23 @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 You'd be very, very wrong. Hey, that's what makes markets -- a difference in beliefs.

@RufusPeabody Our latest discussion actually builds on a very cogent point you made to @roundrobin42 about PMs/exchanges wanting their patrons to "lose slow." Building on that, when there is patron-to-patron(*) matching, no matter who wins, the money never leaves the exchange ecosystem. So, absent withdrawls, it will always be recycled, to the fee-collecting exchange's benefit. This results is an enormous difference in exchange incentives and post-betting behavior. As you know, the traditional bookmaker must now attempt to get the losing patron to reup, which results in all sorts of predatory behavior. It's a never ending marketing push to extract more deposits. The exchange would like the loser to reup, of course, but it's not nearly as crucial -- because the funds are still in the exchange ecosystem. And if they do reup, unlike the traditionals, the collective customer wallet has actually grown! It's a massively superior long-term business model, to my eye, for every stakeholder. (*) My point to Issac and others trying to force PM to DK/FD comparisons, is that there are a lot more patron-to-patron matches than assumed. That has a huge effect on the business model. And, from being on the inside of an exchange, I believe there's an optimal percentage of each matching basket (MM-to-MM, patron-MM and patron-to-patron) and the best PMs will figure that out (instead of trying, to say, scalp $HOOD patrons for all they can.

@MagicRatSF @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 They aren't going to just give that up.

@MagicRatSF @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 It doesn't matter what exchanges want. There's a reason Jump and SIG are on these markets, Rufus is on Kalshi, Smarkets has Hanson Applied Sciences, and Fanduel is trialing market making. They know patron flow is dumb money likely to lose long term.

@MagicRatSF @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 Every exchange ever has talked about needing market makers to provide liquidity. To provide liquidity you need a large bankroll. Regular patrons don't have that and if they do they aren't seeding markets. It's always a market maker on the other side youtu.be/SbIkdDzYIr0?si…

@samtb23 @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 What evidence? I've never seen data published showing the three potential buckets (MM-MM, MM-patron, patron-patron) from an exchange. Can you point me to something? I've love to see. (The assumption from outsiders is it's all patron-to-scary "sharp" MM, but that's not data.)

@MagicRatSF @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 you claim flies in the face of all other evidence and anecdata about exchanges

@samtb23 @RufusPeabody @roundrobin42 I have years of data and first-hand observation advising a sweepstakes exchange. I don't cite percentages because that's a "secret sauce" at each operator.

@capjack2000 @jeffedelstein Yea, I'm sure a bunch of US based VCs and everyone already on their cap tables would love to throw a couple more billion at a couple companies whose business model is solely based on flouting US laws

Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) had an interview with Chris Christie on the BoB podcast the other day.🤔 It reminded me, that after NCAA et al vs Christie was denied by SCOTUS the first time, Christie said the ruling was sacrosanct and that was the end of it.🤚 The reason it wasn't the end of it was Sen. Lesniak was threatening to choose the nuclear option. Essentially, decriminalizing sports betting in the state. Anyone could open a sportsbook anywhere in the state. The threat was enough for NJ to reword their attempted law and fight their way up the ladder again.🪜 Congress attempting to prohibit sports event contracts on prediction markets, should consider the nuclear option that will be pursued if they do so.🤯 Kalshi moves offshore. They already have the brand recognition. UIGEA can't stop crypto. Wire Act can't stop wagering if there is no known entity accepting the business of the wager. Kalshi would 2x, maybe 5x, their valuation in this scenario. No regulation. No oversight. No taxes. Polymarket would just stay how they've been operating prior to getting their DCM.🫴

@IceburghCapital feels like a Citadel tweet. TBT to when you could interview for an SDA role at each of Ashler, Surveyor and GE independently

@NecessaryPaper feel bad for the victims but his stupidity made for great content

@samtb23 Yeah it’s bizarre lie but par for the course with him. He returns every 4 years, scams some new idiot and then back to the abyss where he belongs.

All this twitter beef I feel left out, does that Steven Rothwell guy still exist? Maybe time to remind him he sucks at baseball

@Pontifex Even the Pope is excited we fired Dennis Allen

idk why my company insists on us doing sexual harassment training every year when they havent even bothered hiring anyone worth sexually harassing

@haralabob what's worse, this or rape?

@VegaVandal He was rapping "Fuck Bush" 20 years ago!

Lol that was holding and PI on Ward

@PlusEVAnalytics The whole point of that post is that the price can be wrong and there can still not be a significant financial incentive to push the price back to where it should be

@samtb23 That’s great but for the millionth time I am not talking generally about inefficiency I’m talking specifically about someone manipulating the market, that is, dumping money for the purpose of changing the public narrative around the state of the race.

RE election market manipulation - ignore all the talking heads on both sides, and focus on the fact that anyone with sufficient evidence of manipulation would have a significant financial incentive to push the price back to where it “should be”, and nobody has yet done so.

@buccocapital His Houston accent is why he's one of the greats IMO

On the most recent pod Bill Simmons did a new bit where he called an “Investor Relations” meeting with Russillo to declare an investment in a player immediately called it the Nasdaq 500 and just kept rolling with complete confidence and that’s why he’s one of the greats

@_ChelseaLB @SkyNews I’ve tried ringing all day mate..