cenk

@RHerman A valuable idea worth considering. Thank you.

96% of CPI releases make a false move before revealing the real direction. I analysed 25 recent CPI events on NQ. Here are 10 statistics every CPI trader should understand: 1. The false move is almost guaranteed An overwhelming 96% of CPI events produced a manipulation sweep before committing to the true directional move. 2. Early entries need breathing room The average initial manipulation was 11.8 NQ points. Entering immediately with a tight stop means placing your risk directly inside the statistically expected sweep. 3. The 20-point danger zone Nearly one in three CPI releases moved at least 20 points against the initial release price. That means tight stops were statistically vulnerable approximately 32% of the time. 4. The largest recorded false sweep The worst manipulation reached 43 points in October 2024. That was approximately 3.6× larger than the dataset average. 5. High volatility can produce cleaner trends Counterintuitively, the most volatile releases sometimes delivered the cleanest directional moves. February 2025 produced a massive 261-point range after the initial manipulation. 6. Low volatility can be more dangerous CPI events with an opening range below 50 points frequently produced heavy, directionless chop. Less movement does not always mean less risk. 7. Small ranges can hide large manipulation On four separate CPI releases, the manipulation sweep consumed more than 50% of the entire opening range. What looked like a small reaction was mostly stop-hunting. 8. CPI volatility compressed by approximately 70% Average NQ movement fell from around 198.8 points per event in early 2025 to only 58.8 points in early 2026. The same CPI strategy cannot be traded with the same expectations forever. 9. Fat-tail risk is real Most sweeps were relatively small. But 4 of the 25 events produced extreme manipulation exceeding 20 points. Those rare events are the ones capable of destroying accounts. 10. Trading the first seconds is not an edge When a false move occurs 96% of the time, guessing the direction immediately after the release is not analysis. It is gambling. The objective is not to predict the first candle. The objective is to survive the manipulation, identify the real delivery, and trade only after confirmation. Would you still trade the initial CPI spike knowing these statistics?

@Ritik1504_ Good people and good ideas know no borders, countries, or races. Thank you for the conversation, I will continue to follow you.

@savant___ Np 👍

For anyone who wants to track the overall market health using basic Market Breadth (MB) parameters, this MBM Dashboard is a great starting point. 📊 It includes key breadth metrics such as: ✅Number of stocks trading above important Moving Averages (20/50/200 DMA) ✅4% Advancers vs 4% Decliners – helps identify whether strong buying or selling is dominating the market. ✅Net New Highs vs New Lows – a quick way to gauge the strength of the broader trend. ✅New 52-Week Highs vs 52-Week Lows – shows whether leadership is expanding or weakening. How to use it? Basic Idea - Don't focus only on the index. If these breadth metrics are improving consistently, it usually means the rally has broad participation and is healthier. If they start deteriorating while the index is still moving up, it's often an early sign of weakening momentum and calls for extra caution. A simple dashboard, but one that can help you stay aligned with the market environment rather than fighting it. 🎯 chartink.com/dashboard/1323… From @swing_ka_sultan

@shindxesu I wish I could realize this distinction without experiencing any losses; you're talking about something very important, I like it.

トレードで成功する人とそうでない人を隔てるのは、圧倒的な努力量は勿論だけど、その上で値動きが起こる仕組みを知ろうとできるかという単純な要素が大きく起因しているような気がする。 例えば、「ダマシを出した後は逆方向に伸びやすい」という傾向を見つけたとしたら、そこから形だけで優位性を覚えようとする人ともう一段踏み込んで“なぜそうなるのか”にまで目を向けられる人がいるわけで、 相場には同じ形は二度と現れないからこそ、その優位性が生じる仕組みを理解しないと次には絶対活かせない。 結局、値動きが起こる仕組みを自分なりに上手く咀嚼できた人がトレードで成功しているような気がする。

Five lessons from Richard Rainwater

@shindxesu That's valuable information, thank you.

いくら勉強しても成果が出ないFX初心者には、“トレンドの減速”という考え方を身に付けて欲しい。反転を捉える精度が格段に向上します。

@TheWolf534 DIP

Want the complete professional breakdown? Settings & filters I use live EMA exit rules vs time-based exit Best indices & timeframes How I combine it with trend-following systems DM me “DIP” for the full system.

🚨 I turned a simple setup into consistent FTMO payouts… while most traders burn accounts trading discretionary setups. Here’s the exact system that’s been printing for me and my team during ranging conditions. Tested 2011–2026. Live verified. Thread 🧵 (Like + Save — you’ll want this one)

Every Parameter Has a Cost Each new rule increases complexity. Only add a parameter if it consistently improves robustness rather than simply improving one historical backtest.

@Alikhan_tpt Crt

If you want the complete PDF of CRT Mentorship secrets of candles Comment "CRT" & I’ll send it directly to your DM This isn’t just a PDF… it’s the key that can flip the way you see the market.

@BizzaTrades That's a great idea! Which currency pairs or indices were you able to test with? If so, could you share them?

I'm back testing the $GC 5.30 Magic Hour... I thought I would share a couple interesting trades 👇 All different setups. All have strong data behind them. 1. Low sweep → 75.6% to hit mid 2. Low sweep → 73.3% to hit mid 3. High sweep → 87.5% to hit mid Confluence + data = high conviction setups I’m always taking. Who else uses this data when trading?

@CryptoValueLabs @tom_doerr That's a very correct approach, congratulations!

No thanks... Main issue: lookahead risk Their swing_highs_lows() defines a swing high/low using candles before and after the current candle. The README says the current high/low must be the extreme across swing_length candles before and after. That means the swing label is not known at the timestamp where it is marked. For our backtests, this is a hard no unless we shift/confirm the signal. In the raw code, the swing function uses future bars via negative shifting and rolling logic, so it is inherently retrospective.

Identifies Fair Value Gaps and Order Blocks using Smart Money Concepts in Python github.com/joshyattridge/…

@bepotrades I think there's nothing wrong with the trading logic, in fact it's very good, but isn't your winning rate a bit too ambitious? How many trades did you need to achieve that rate? I'm not asking to criticize, I'm asking to be convinced. Thanks

My 78% Win Rate Trading Strategy 1) Wake up at 9:00 am EST 2) Identify Main Liquidity Levels (Swing highs/lows or Session highs/lows) 3) From 9:30 - 11:00am window wait for those levels to get swept 4) Once they get taken out, scale to lower TF and find first presented FVG 5) Wait for that same FVG to be inversed/disrespected, enter the trade and target opposite side of the range 6) Congratulations, now you are profitable trader. Rinse and repeat and enjoy the profits! ✅

@AndrewTradesNQ @edgeful I loved this statistic, thank you!

You can predict slow choppy range days with the market open volume report on edgful. In the past 5 years, there's 72% very strong correlation between the first 15 minutes of market opening and the rest of the New York session. If the amount of contracts traded in those first 15min are less than the average of ~40k, it can be more likely that the day will be slow and choppy.

@thiisislio You're absolutely right.

Gelişemiyorsun Çünkü Sıkılamıyorsun! Backtest atmak için ya da stratejini geliştirmek için ekranı açıyorsun ve o anda sanki bir anda boşluğa düşüyorsun, sanki canın sıkkınlıktan patlayacak gibi oluyorsun. Yarım saat belki bir saat uğraşıyorsun odaklanmaya çabalıyorsun ancak yine de ne sıkkınlığın geçiyor ne de yaptığın işte geliştiğini hissedebiliyorsun. Çünkü beynin 5 saniyeye alıştı . O an hızlı bir dopamin arıyor. Elin otomatik olarak telefona gidiyor. Reels, TikTok veya Shorts videoları zihnini o kadar hızlı dopamine alıştırdı ki saniyeler içinde yeni uyarıcılar arıyor. Trading ise bu işin tam zıttıdır. Backtest veya grafik incelemek sabır işidir. Zihnin o telefondaki dopamin borbardımanına alıştığı için ne backtest yapmak ne de işlemin girişini/çıkışını beklemek sana işkence gibi geliyor. Aslında odaklanamıyor değilsin. Sadece odak süreni kaydırarak mahvettin. En ufak bir teknik zorluk ya da bir şeyi anlamakta zorlandığın da zihnin o işi halledip çözmek yerine, telefona kaçıyor. Hatırlıyor musun? Çocukluk zamanlarımızda ya da bu kaydırma sistemi daha çıkmadan evvel evin içinde sıkıntıdan patlar ve hemen bir şeyleri kurcalamaya veya bir şeyler üretmeye başlardık. Belki yeni bir hobi belki sanat belki de herhangi başka birşey şimdi ise 2026 yılında odak süremiz bir balık ile aynı seviyesine gelmişken. Bunu tersine çevirmek süper güce dönüşebilir. Peki ya çözüm ney? Aslında şimdiki maddeleri denediğiniz de sizde farkına varacaksınız ki gerçekten bunun bir bağımlılık olduğunu ve sizin hayatınızdan ve gelişiminizden çok şey götürdüğünü göreceksiniz. 1- Sürtünmeyi Arttır Masanın başına geçip backtestmi atacaksın? O zaman telefonu en uzak odaya koy. Zihin ulaşması zor olduğunda tembelliğe düşüp kalkıp telefona erişmeyle uğraşmak istemeyecektir. Telefonu asla masanda bulundurma. Sadece grafikle baş başa kal. 2- Gelişim Sinyali Kendine şunu söyle ve zihnine kazı: Canım sıkılıyorsa, konfor alanından çıkıyorum demektir. Bu sayede hem yaptığınız işten daha fazla ödül alıp bir sonraki çalışma için o işe dopamin üretebileceksiniz. Bugün herkes 5 saniyelik videolarla beynini uyuştururken, sıkıldığı halde o masada çalışan trader rekabeti tamamen yok eder. Pes eden maldır... Trading'de parayı teknik analizden çok psikoloji ve farkındalık ile kazanıldığını düşünüyorum. O yüzden bu tarz yazılara ve videolara ağırlık vereceğim ddevamı gelsin mi? Eğer gelsin isterseniz bu yazıya desteklerinizi bekliyorum... Herkese bol kazançlı seanslar diliyorum... -Lio (Psikolog veya bu alanların uzmanı değilim! Bu yazı kendimi geliştirirken okuduğum yazılar, araştırdığım makaleler ve izlediğim videolar doğrultusunda edindiğim bilgilerden oluşmaktadır.)

@ZenomTrader a valuable idea, worth measuring

The secret to leveraging prop firms properly is running a low win rate, high risk reward strategy. The math is simple: it all comes down to the maximum daily loss limit and the 1%/2% risk per trade restriction. Most prop firms don't really facilitate the use of mean reversion strategies. The reason is quite simple: they typically have a high win rate but a low risk to reward ratio. You capture many small winning trades, but when the losers come, they're much larger in percentage terms. To avoid hitting the maximum daily loss limit, you need to be highly underleveraged. So one idea I've been considering is running mean reversion portfolios with much higher profit targets and a lower win rate. That sounds like an interesting experiment. I've heard of people successfully running trend following systems with negative risk to reward ratios, so I don't see why I shouldn't try the opposite, Mean reversion with high risk to reward targets.

@RHerman It makes sense, it's worth following, but there's never any certainty. It's a good study.

Most traders wait for New York to reveal the direction. But on London compression days, the market often makes the decision almost immediately. I analyzed NQ sessions where London remained completely trapped inside the Asia Range. No Asia High sweep. No Asia Low sweep. Both outer levels still active before New York. The result: → 97.3% of the first outer-level breakouts occurred by 10:00 ET. → The median first breakout arrived at approximately 08:31 ET. This was the fastest resolution window of every Asia–London sequence in the study. That matters. When London compresses inside Asia, liquidity remains untouched on both sides. New York inherits a fully loaded range. And once the session begins, the market usually does not wait long to choose a side. The practical takeaway is simple: A fast breakout confirms the scenario. A delayed breakout is also information. If the range is still intact after the expected decision window, the setup is already starting to lose value. Compression does not only make the range more interesting. It accelerates the clock. Source: Own NQ study Market: NQ futures Setup: London session fully contained inside the Asia Range Data period: 2015-2025 Do you trade London compression as a breakout setup, or do you wait for the first sweep and confirmation?

@Sozyuku 55

29–70 arasından şanslı bir numara seçin 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 ✨ 15 numara $1.500’lık bir sürpriz saklıyor 🎉 72 saat içinde 15 kazanan rastgele seçilecek

@Sozyuku 5

@MommyTradesToo @AndrewTradesNQ Thanks

@savant___ @AndrewTradesNQ It states NQ

I was messing around with edgeful a bit and found a crazy statistic. 👀 Nearly 80% of 5m FVGs that form in the first 30 minutes after market opening at 9:30-10:00 AM EST, stay unmitigated. (I mean unmitigated that they don't get inversed.) This just tells you that the direction for the day is already set and done even before the 10AM macro, when a new 1H/4H candle opens.