Sabitlenmiş Tweet
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃＼○／
┓┏┓┏┓┃ /
┛┗┛┗┛┃ノ)
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
┛┗┛┗┛┃
┓┏┓┏┓┃
Sean T at RCP
84.6K posts
Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
Sr. Elections Analyst, @RCPolitics, Visiting Scholar, @AEI, Lecturer, @osupolisci. Recovering Attorney. Husband, Dad. Writes about elections, history and more.
Katılım Mart 2010
1K Takip Edilen71.4K Takipçiler
@yeselson I mean, I imagine if they had done this in 1929 to prevent Labour from winning power in the next election historians would look back on it with horror.
English
@yeselson This just seems like the type of thing with 'stabbed in the back' energy. Elites clinging to power for their own sakes.
English
Just paralyzed, stolid place holders. Schumer looks like Joan of Arc compared to these Labour guys.
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin
typically the reason electoral reform never happens is because the government in position to enact it won under the old rules, but if they're facing a generational wipeout...
English
Sean T at RCP retweetledi
This is a very moving and reverent moment in American history. Absolutely no American president has ever loved or read the Bible as much as Trump, so he deserves this
Jesus, himself a great American who literally wrote the Bible, would be honored
English
Sean T at RCP retweetledi
The idea that the US government could keep aliens under wraps is ridiculous. These people are incompetent. Last week they arrested a Secret Service agent for beating off in a hotel lobby. Last month a Secret Service agent assigned to Jill Biden shot himself in the ass. No one is harboring Martians.
English
@SeanTrende Washington has no citizen referendum process
English
Dems can’t redistrict CO or WA at all. NY maybe try 3 seats but even that is very unlikely. VA referendum in 2028 could easily fail.
Rs will redraw IN, MO, LA, KS, KY, AL, TX if they try
GOP adds 14 more
Derek@drh1992
@TonerousHyus That’s not true. You’re coping. Dems can fight it to at least a draw.
English
@TonerousHyus Can you not do it via citizen referendum in either state? Put it on some random election day in 2027?
English
@SeanTrende WA requires 2/3rds of both houses to propose an amendment. Then it’s placed on the next general ballot (2028).
Problem? Dems have no chance of ever having 2/3rds of both houses lol
English
@dilanesper Republicans wanted to ban gerrymandering when it benefitted them to support banning gerrymandering. Once it stopped benefitting them, they stopped supporting a ban on gerrymandering, and Dems started.
ncnewsline.com/briefs/thirty-…
English
this is worth talking about because it is not really true.
because of the way the Democratic Party works, they never move a clean bill that bans gerrymandering, even as a messaging bill. The jerks who run the Groups demand every bill be larded up with unpopular crap.
Tom Brown 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@browntom1234
@roddreher Republicans could support national anti-gerrymandering legislation. Democrats have proposed it multiple times. Republicans never have any interest.
English
@theraghav A GOP district using 2020 numbers is one Biden won by fewer than 4.5 points.
English
@SeanTrende I was under the impression that it’s barely possible to get a GOP district using the 2024 numbers, but basically impossible using the 2020 numbers – and the latter seem to be the ones relevant to whether MA’s current map is a gerrymander.
English
The "Is Massachusetts a Gerrymander" question is so interesting. I just ran some back-of-the-envelope simulations without political data and trying to keep districts compact while preserving town/city lines. The result? 1/
English
@SeanCFoley12 @FrankLRizzo Some is town boundaries. Incumbency. Inertia from earlier draws. Probably some partisan nudging.
English
@SeanTrende @FrankLRizzo But when you look at those districts, the shape of them suggests there was an intention to minimize the possibility of a GOP district, right? Why draw such oddly shaped districts otherwise?
English
@BetterScotus @daveweigel No offense, but 2016 called and it wants its Democratic Trump analysis back.
GIF
English
@SeanTrende @daveweigel God does not love me so much as to make AOC the Dem nominee
English
@madeindefiance @MicahALucas The point is there is an incumbent there, and a relatively effective one as well. That makes it a bit of a bigger haul.
English
@MicahALucas @SeanTrende The presidential vote is a cleaner metric. Both '22 and '24 were years that favored Republicans. I don't think a 6-point swing in a year that favors Democrats is much of a stretch.
English
I will also point to the tweet I did during the referendum vote: I don't know how much this changes. This was pitched as D+4 but over 2026 baseline, probably not. VA-02 is in deep trouble, and VA-01 is one that could go for Ds in a mega-tsunami. Ds will redraw before 2028.
English
@k_sonin I also think she was a bit off in her elections analysis IIRC. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5, so a Biden +2 district leans R in a typical year.
English
@k_sonin Dated at best. These sims suggest that normal-looking districts create Trump-won districts.
English
@AeonCoin @bruceahuntjr IDK. If you think the harm of a gerrymander is someone getting their vote suppressed then it doesn't really matter if someone does it intentionally or accidentally.
English
@SeanTrende @bruceahuntjr Intent is integral to the definition of gerrymander, but intent is impossible to escape, because you can decide on a method without intent, then look at the outcome and if you like the outcome, do nothing, but if you don't like the outcome, change the method.
English
@FrankLRizzo I hate to keep splitting hairs but who knows when this tweet pops up in the future: Light commitment. You really can get a Trump seat through politics-blind draws. It's just somewhat unlikely.
English
@SeanTrende Alright fair.
But we’re splitting hairs on what’s a “gerrymander” here (which I get is your overall point).
Bottom line: it would require a commitment to reverse-gerrymandering to get a GOP seat in Massachusetts, but at the same time the lines are drawn to benefit Democrats.
English