@texasrunnerDFW Deep down we all know this is true. Yet here we all are. We’d rather have constant entertainment at our fingertips than find true happiness in reality.
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Scott Rock
60 posts
@TxTrader10 @AdamMancini4 Same here amigo. I quite literally bought the highs and sold the lows in mornings consolidation. 72 reclaim chopped me up good
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@AdamMancini4 Just logged back in to draw lines from NL and I swear I took every bad trade imaginable today. Then I hesitated on the last 72 touch.
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The plan for today as provided in last nights newsletter/here in #ES_F was that we rally from 5744 to ~5805, and we got it. We dipped from there, which then setup 5782 again then 5796 as posted, and we hit 5782, now heading to 5796. Protect gains
We are building a huge flag.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The plan from last nights newsletter in #ES_F tracked perfectly as we held 5744 overnight, rallied to 5800+ target, dipped. Now, its pure chop & as posted, don't overtrade. We are setting up trend leg next week. 5782 remains res and bulls must hold 5744 to keep 5796, 5805+ live
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@AdamMancini4 @Hayden__69 @tanman_the Thanks for the info. You wouldn’t consider that a 72 reclaim? Sat above for about 10min
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@Hayden__69 @tanman_the Absolutely - I havn't had a single trade yet today since my 5750 add last night and I won't be trading today unless we get something really A+ at 5744/5734 zone. Capital preservation Friday, let get retail get chopped
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Today's NFP targets were 5783, then 5805 in #ES_F. We hit them, and at 9:20AM, I warned to protect profits as *anymore upside today is bonus*. Bulls did their job, and aren't required to do more
Now we work supports. 5763 (weak), 5744-34 must hold to 5813, 5828 bonus live.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Easy NFP in #ES_F. I provided 2 targets for it: 5782 (hit), 5805 (2 points off). Day hasn't started yet, but protect profits now, anymore upside here is all bonus to be handled by runners. Will warn this hourly 5815, 5828=bonus trgets. 5763 (weak), 5744-5734=supports. Sell below
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@AdamMancini4 @TxTrader10 So if we sold off to 5700 by end of day you would not be apart of that move?
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@TxTrader10 I don't see any here today that I would take - perhaps tomorrow some will setup but I'll discuss that in newsletter
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@TxTrader10 As I discuss in the newsletter, breakdown shorts are very complex setup types, and they are rare. As a new trader, you should probably be only be trying maybe 1 or 2 a month. 95% of your trades should just be failed breakdowns, backtests or routine level tests.
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@AdamMancini4 @LoggedOffFL Stop was still 20pts below your entry after we moved up a couple levels? I understand it, but once we ripped to 70 I moved my stop below that open low at 39. Seemed like a decent spot that may invalidate the structure at that point
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@LoggedOffFL Not much in there! Took the initial reclaim at 730AM and just been sitting in runners since. I don't overtrade much and I just take my piece out and let it work
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I've called 5740 the "ATM Machine" all day & it continues to pay out over and over in #ES_F for 10+ tests this week 4 times today alone. We test it, failed breakdown, long trigger.
Lock in gains here, Nothing to do but hold runners. 5763, 5772, 5780 next. 5729 must fail to sell
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The "ATM Machine" at 5740 continues to pay out in #ES_F over 10 tests this week as we continually probe below and reclaim, running to 5763+ target where I warned to lock in gains. Its likely tired now. No change though. 5751 must reclaim to resume up. 5729 fails, sell 5712
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@sckdds @AdamMancini4 He goes off the list where the trade plan for the next day starts. He takes profit at next level regardless if it’s a major or minor
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@AdamMancini4 Typically with level to level, should we follow the support/resistance larger level list or do we follow the next major listed level support/resistance for takes? Thanks
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After a fast start #ES_F has settled into chop. The active setup since 940AM has been a classic failed breakdown (of ystds low & 5740 key support). 5754 (hit, now support), 5763 (hit), 5778+ (not hit) were targets
Dont overtrade. 78 in play as long as supports hold. Sell<5740
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Excellent follow through on a classic failed breakdown in #ES_F. As given here/in newsletter, we flushed 5739 key support, we flushed yesterdays low, recovered, longs triggered 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), 5778-82 (big test) were targets. 5795 above there. Sell again only if 39 fails
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@maizewings @muyKERRI @MLB_PR @MLB I will be referring back to this tweet on 10/3/2024 at 5pm central. Good luck
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Tonight @MLB announced the game times for the first three days of Division Series play. #Postseason
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@vikidave @AdamMancini4 Agreed. I think he misunderstood my question though, so I will ask you since you have fully grasped the bigger picture. If we rip back above the structure around 77 major (which would be mid 80s), would he not take it since we didn’t create more structure after returning?
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@AdamMancini4 Major kudos to @AdamMancini4 for consistently sharing such valuable insights on how to navigate the markets. It’s amazing how clear your guidance is, yet many still miss the bigger picture.Your persistence is truly appreciated,and thanks for the fantastic NLs
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Full round trip in #ES_F. As per newsletter/tweets, 5777 fail this morning triggered short. 5740 was target & 1hr ago I tweeted it was bulls last chance to bounce there.We did. Backtesting 77 now
Bears control until it clears (5795+ above). Longer we spend here, better for bulls
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@AdamMancini4 @ESFuturesT41922 Yes, I meant if we go straight back there right now and rip above current structure (mid 80s)
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@jalepool @ESFuturesT41922 I wouldn't - not until mid 80s. As I've said all and in my comments all day, I'm in no rush to long. Today is the first real sell day we've had in a while and I just want to let shorts work today. Lots of time to long in September and will be lots of time to long later on
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@AdamMancini4 @ESFuturesT41922 More structure after we return there? So you wouldn’t long if we returned there right now and ripped above the structure just made around 77?
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@ESFuturesT41922 The level has to actually reclaim (the inverse of a breakdown short). We'd have to test it, dip (which we are getting now) return there, then once some structure forms, one can long above. In previous comments, I'd suggested a 5786 long trigger may make sense
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@Mariuszkap1 @AdamMancini4 @EricSeiler7 It sounds like holding runners could help you with those losses during rallies
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@AdamMancini4 @EricSeiler7 I love ranges. I have the highest win rate trading them. It’s when the price is rallying I lose. Big time. I lose 200% more than what I made trading ranges. And it’s nearly impossible to know when the price will rally.
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Its been an incredible run, hitting 5823 target off 5770 support as provided here/in newsletter - after an already 340 point rally - during the "most bearish month of the year" seasonally. Why its key to trade price, ignore the rest
5839, 5854 if #ES_F wants more. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Incredible follow through and patience paid. As posted for 3 days, #ES_F has been flagging 5790 to 5770 for a breakout. As per last nights 4pm newsletter 5823 was breakout target & we hit it. Plan today: Lock in gains, let runner go. 5839, 5854 if ES wants. 5809, 5790=supports
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@AdamMancini4 @SergiosSketos Obviously price will do what it wants, but just curious on why you don’t think it’s ready.
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@AdamMancini4 @SergiosSketos We had numerous traps around 5680 all last week. Also a couple traps Thursday, Friday & overnight testing the highs of last weeks consolidation. Add in the fact that we broke above your IHS. Is that not enough to expect price to continue up?
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There's 5782 target tagged in #ES_F. As usual, lock in gains here, and let a runner work. 5738-5782 is the multiday range to setup the next trend leg as posted. Today's targets were 5782, 5791, 5807, and just hit 5782 for 2nd time.
Rest in play. 5766 (weak), 5755 remain support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Slow start to the week in #ES_F as we coil for the next move. 5782-5738=chop, dont overtrade. I was looking for a rally to 5782 to start this week and we tagged it last night. 5766 support as posted and held so far, but its weak. Keeps 5782, 5791, 5807+ live. Sell<5755 to 5738
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@stocktok99 @AdamMancini4 @Ross7979 @twaymond They don’t have to be perfect double bottoms if that’s what you’re asking. Look at 5680 earlier this week as an example. Some lows at 5685, some at 5680, 5678ish. Then a decent flush to 5675 and reclaim of 5685 at the end of wednesday for a high quality failed breakdown
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On Wednesday at 4pm, #ES_F put in a massive long trigger: A failed breakdown of the 5680 level. Targets were 5775, then 5796, & we hit 5797. Now, basing time. OPEX today *dont overtrade*
Plan: 5765, 5754=supports. Must hold to keep 5775, 5782, 5797 live. 54 fails, sell 5737
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are now up over 100 points from yesterdays 4pm Failed Breakdown long of 5680 in #ES_F. 5775, then 5797 were targets and we are creeping to 5797 slowly. There is nothing to do but just ride runners until it ends. 5805, 5820 above there We sell *only* when a support fails. 5763
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@armonte1 @AdamMancini4 Change your chart from the default /ES (which has rolled over into December) to /ESU24. That’s the ticker for the old September chart. Just make sure you’re also buying & selling /ESU24
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Friday morning, I gave 2 targets in #ES_F: 5619 & 5630. We hit 5630 10am Friday. 5630 was a battleground last 2 weeks of August & we are glued here since. *Dont overtrade around this trap pivot*
Plan today: 5619-22=support(weak). Keeps 5642, 5660 live. 5619 fails, dip 5604, 5598
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Today's targets in #ES_F were 5619 (hit), 5630 (hit) and 5630 remains a magnet. As posted all day, we spent 2 weeks glued around this zone late August, trapping above and below over and over. As warned all day *dont overtrade*. No change, 5611-15 must hold, or dip 5585 starts
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@merc115_r @AdamMancini4 @vernam79 Change your chart from the default /ES (which has rolled over into December) to /ESU24. That’s the ticker for the old September chart. Just make sure you’re also buying & selling /ESU24
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@AdamMancini4 @vernam79 For those on Schwab TOS, looks like ES has rolled over to ESZ24 (DEC24) contract. @AdamMancini4 any chance to get the equivalent levels re-posted in the NL for DEC24?
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While I have opinions on where price is going, the 1st thing I do when I sit down to trade is discard them. I have a plan: I have leveIs I want to long, lvls below which I want to short, 3 setups I look for, then I wait & react. I never profited until I threw out the crystal ball
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@canoe_bwca @Taylor8xeno8 @AdamMancini4 @anchovy_paste 100% I hope so too. He’s mentioned he day trades with “small size” relative to his account value to reduce emotions. If emotions weren’t involved he should be trading with 1k contracts. His consistency is insane.
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Have a great weekend! Despite the volatility, #ES_F has gone nowhere since July. Its because its building a large pattern: An inverse H&S, with 5665 neckline
Big picture view: Pop there. If ES to pullback, thats the zone. Inverse H&S breakout targets 5700, 5772, 5800 afterwards
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@Taylor8xeno8 @AdamMancini4 @anchovy_paste I’m sure he’s somewhere around 20 minis. I think he’s been trading the market longer than micros existence
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@AdamMancini4 @anchovy_paste Friendly banter but my guess is you trade 40 micros. If my math is correct which is highly improbable, it’s the lowest # you
can piece out 75/15/10. If you’re doing 40 full cons, then holy crap lol
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@AdamMancini4 At what point would you adjust your stop to below this new higher low at 5460? Once we test today’s highs? Thanks!
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Closing update: Relief bounce day for #ES_F. 5478 was 1st rally target today and we hit it 10am, sold, popped above to 5492, now here again. Its a major pivot. Above here, ES can take a larger leg back to 92 then 5519. Newsletter out soon talking triggers tradecompanion.substack.com
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Its been very clean trading today in #ES_F. 5414 reclaim last night was the short squeeze/relief rally trigger with 5478 (hit at 10am, dipped), 5492 (hit exact, sold) targets
No change, 5457, 5438-42 are supports (must hold, or we retest lows). 5478 must recover to resume up
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
High level precision in #ES_F: 5414 reclaim triggered long for today with 5478 (we dipped there 10am), 5492 (we just hit exact and dipped) targets. We are back to ground 0 at 5492. Little to do now but protect gains. 5478=support(weak), keeps 5492, 5519+ live. Sell again below
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@TxTrader10 @AdamMancini4 Ugly/choppy action today unless you caught the 5519 long this morning. Don’t beat yourself up brotha
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@AdamMancini4 Not a good day for me. Must have misinterpreted the tweets today. That an I fell into everyrading. So frustrated with myself.
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This morning we got a classic short squeeze, 1st of this pullback leg. 5519 was support as posted with 5535, 5542, 5554+ targets. We got 5554+ in #ES_F, then dipped. Now, back at 5519 again.
No change: 5519=support. 5535 must recover to resume up. Next heavy leg down starts<5502
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We had the 1st short squeeze of this pullback today off 5519 support in #ES_F. 5535 (1st profit take), 5542, 5554+ were targets and they hit. 5535 then became support, and ES testing/probing below for 3hrs now 5535 must reclaim now to resume up. 5519 remains support (dip below)
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