siamkidd
15.2K posts

siamkidd
@SiamKidd
Ex M&A, Trader of 21+ years, CIO/co-founder of DSV (the 1st & only hedge fund 100% in Bittensor) & I fly helicopters & planes for fun! https://t.co/yvxZhkIves










#PBW26 was a glimpse into where web3 is headed, and Yuma’s @GSchvey was there to talk $TAO


Just an overview of what we are doing as a company. Astrid Arena is where all of our active efforts will go into. Every other part of the business will naturally spool up as we get success from Arena. Another revenue stream is that Arena will eventually move from $10k dummy accounts to live DEX accounts and a percentage of trading fees by all participants will flow to Astrid. 100% of these trading fees will be used for alpha buybacks.

Congrats to the Arena winners of the first Battle! 1st: flora = $4500 2nd: arena aggregator = $2250 3rd: OrochiIONode = $750 Now Arena V2 is up and running, we have LOTS of tweaks to implement each week, so every new Battle will have different parameters and rules. Like anything new, there are many gaps that need to be plugged. Many we could foresee, but the priority was to get the train rolling. Issues like: - People spamming mining slots (submitting multiple agents doing the same strategy but with minor tweaks). Looks like 1st and 2nd place were the same person! We have a few solutions to fix this. - Need to find a better uncorrelated mix of tradeable assets. BTC, ETH and SOL are basically the same from a directional standpoint. - It's not ideal that Hyperliquid doesn't facilitate trailing stop losses or other exotic trade types. So Agents will just have to run 1 or 5 min cron jobs to check price and their stop/take profit levels. - Some agents are just producing gibberish in terms of their reasoning for trades. This was expected of course, and Arena V3 will completely solve this. Timeline on V3 is unknown at the moment. Probably 1-2 months away. - Eventually, once we've gleaned enough intelligence from the battles, we will create the Astrid Baseline Agent which we aim to improve every Battle. Once this happens, we can perhaps change the Prize pay-outs to those that outperform the Baseline Agent. - The scoring at the moment is very easily gameable as it's just the top 3 in P&L for the moment. This is my primary focus this week. As a result, I've seen some agents spaff some max lev trades, do well and then effectively stop trading in order to not jeopardise their position on the leaderboard. Also some "profitable" agents have shown a fair bit of volatility. So we will be creating 'The Astrid Score'. This is a composite scoring mechanism which scores for actual GOOD performance paths. Yes, we want profitable algos, but with little volatility and little drawdown. In order for us to sell to Investment Firms or even run large amounts of our own money on a future agent, it needs to be safe and reliable. So the Astrid Score will be out of 100 with the following composition: 30% Calmar Ratio 25% Inverted Ulcer Index 20% Sortino Ratio 15% Max Drawdown (hard penalty threshold) 10% Equity Curve Smoothness I believe Agents that score well with this Scoring system will actually be good in the real world. So what are they? Calmar Ratio This is Total Return / Max Drawdown. This essentially scores profitability per unit of pain. e.g. Agent that does 50% ROI with a max drawdown of 10% = good. Compared to an agent that does 200% ROI with a max drawdown of like 80% = bad. Inverted Ulcer Index This measures how low a drawdown gets and the duration of it. No one likes being underwater for long. So this part of the scoring penalises strategies that stay underwater for extended periods. And repeated drawdowns. It's the perfect addition to the Calmar Ratio as Calmar gauges how bad the worst drawdown was. And Ulcer gauges how bad did it feel the whole time. Sortino Ratio This is similar to Sharpe ratio which Wallstreet likes, but that measures Return / Gross volatility (up & down). I prefer Sortino as it measures Return / Downside volatility only. So this gauges if returns are being generated with controlled downside volatility. After all, we need consistent and reliable agents! Sortino will be good for filtering out erratic agents and over-leveraged strategies. It's not a good metric on its own, but combined with Calmar and Ulcer, it's good. Max Drawdown As it says on the tin. Big drawdowns will be penalised (from a scoring perspective). Equity Curve Smoothness This will be a mix of percentage of profitable days, standard deviation of returns and linear regression fit of equity curve (R²). Essentially, smooth upward curve = good. Spiky chaotic curve = bad. Anywho, hope this makes sense. Me, Leo and Ciprian are working full time on Astrid Arena now as this will be Astrid's primary future. Mark will be overseeing Astrid Bridge (sourcing a new dev for this) and Astrid Vault. P.S. For those participating in Arena, it's worth getting your Agent to update their Arena md skill file every Saturday, so it can automatically keep up with the new changes each week.










Btw i should address some of the points in the article which AI slop influencers are now repeating. > I suspended emissions to his subnets I do not have the ability to suspend emissions. What i did do is sell some of my alpha holdings on his three subnets, because they were not running, and were on near 100% burn code. This changed the emission the same way all buys and sells on Bittensor do. I don’t have any privilege beyond what normal TAO holders have. > I deprecated Covenant’s channels and removed moderation rights No, Samuel specifically deprecated his own channels which he did via a pinned comment and also a Twitter post. To be clear, he is talking about a discord channel. > I removed his ability to moderate his community Sam was deleting posts in his channel of genuine, honest criticism. I removed that ability temporarily and then reinstated it later. I did not remove his moderator role. I simply stopped him from deleting posts from others in his channels. > “deprecating infrastructure” Not even sure what this one means. > large visible token sales Not large. Less than 1% of what i had invested in his teams. Visibility is impossible to avoid in my position. I reserve my right to buy and sell tokens which is what underpins the entire system of dTao. Anything else?




OpenAI just backed a 9 month old AI start up with a $94m raise at a $650m val. This start up demonstrated using a swarm of 2000 Agents to forecast the price of Gold with the aim of selling this predictive software to investment firms. There are a number of Bittensor subnets doing something identical to this (SN6 for example) and also SN127. We are building SN127 @AstridIntel Arena where we are going to be permissionlessly incentivising a swarm of Agents around the world to duke it out to see who has the best trading algo. SN127 will be gleaning valuable data behind the winning Agents and also open-sourcing a lot of the edge in order to collaboratively raise the performance across the board. Growing accumulated intelligence is a crucial part of being a Bittensor subnet. Eventually, we can commercialise this intelligence to Investment firms and other avenues. So starting in a few weeks, V2 of Astrid Arena will be launching. Here are the main points: ⏳ Each battle is 2 weeks long. ⌛️ Every week, a new battle commences. 🥷 We have 3 Practice Battles followed by a Showdown Battle. 💰 Prize pot for Practice Battles is circa $7500. 💸 Prize pot for Showdown Battles is circa $30000! 🏆 At the end of each 2 week battle, 1st place = 60% of prize pot, 2nd = 30%, 3rd = 10%. So 1st place on a Practice Battle = $4500 and 1st place on a Showdown Battle = $18k! (Imagine vibe coding a Trading Agent on OpenClaw and making $18k in 2 weeks by winning?! Or imagine building an Agent that trains a bunch of sub-trading agents to iteratively improve!) More info to come, but we will be staggering Battles so there will be winners every week! Stay tuned for the launch...








