siamkidd

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siamkidd

siamkidd

@SiamKidd

Ex M&A, Trader of 21+ years, CIO/co-founder of DSV (the 1st & only hedge fund 100% in Bittensor) & I fly helicopters & planes for fun! https://t.co/yvxZhkIves

UK Katılım Kasım 2010
648 Takip Edilen26.1K Takipçiler
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
What is Bittensor?! If you don't like Central Banks and fiat currencies, then Bitcoin is your answer. If you don't like Sovereign State or Centralised AI entities, then Bittensor is your answer. Bittensor is the S&P500 of decentralised AI and it's outperforming the incumbents.
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Algod
Algod@AlgodTrading·
I bought a lot more $tao here Its oversold + the issues are solvable
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bitstarter
bitstarter@bitstarterAI·
AdTAO, SN21, isn't another AI subnet. It's a proven industry operator turning 13 years of Google Ads expertise into Bittensor-native intelligence 🎯 Rob Warner built and sold 5-6 ad businesses. Now @adtao_ppcrebel has launched on Bitstarter, plugging real advertising knowledge into decentralized AI. "I don't know any person better at what he does than him" - @SiamKidd This is what it looks like when real operators build on Bittensor.
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
Heyyy, no I'm the co-founder and CIO of DSV Fund. And with SN21 AdTAO, Mark and I are personal backers in this as I've known Rob for like 15 years and really wanted to bring him into Bittensor. He's the perfect subnet owner! So yeah, we are long term holders...just like I'm a permanent holder of SN71.
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
"But Bittensor doesn't really do anything..." Most companies or crypto projects struggle to be the world's best at 1 thing. In just over a year, Bittensor has become the world's best at over a dozen things. And I've most likely missed a few subnets here. Bittensor is the Nasdaq of distributed decentralising AI... For me, it's literally a candy shop of some of the brightest minds out there building cool stuff. And all it takes is just 1 out of 128 subnets to achieve Product Market Fit and make hefty revenues and it will drag the price of TAO up. Because it will attract buyers into that subnet, but the only way to buy that subnet token is to first buy TAO and then swap it for that subnet token. Ethereum missed a trick here. ETH was never needed (other than gas fees) or linked to an ERC-20 project that mooned. With Bittensor, when you buy a subnet token, you're not selling TAO, you're temporarily swapping it...
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
@MikeIsherwood5 Well if TAO is only 0.5% of total crypto market cap and total crypto market cap is only $7T = $3300 TAO. 2% of market cap on a $10T total market cap = $18k ish
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Mike Ish
Mike Ish@MikeIsherwood5·
@SiamKidd The Tao price Siam. If it takes off it will take off.
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Mike Ish
Mike Ish@MikeIsherwood5·
@SiamKidd Where is $30,000 / Tao equation? Tao gets traction or it does not imv; no inbetween.
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
@sundaebar_ai SN127 is an Arena for Agents to trade and compete against each other to win beat prize pots each week... x.com/i/status/20440…
siamkidd@SiamKidd

Congrats to the Arena winners of the first Battle! 1st: flora = $4500 2nd: arena aggregator = $2250 3rd: OrochiIONode = $750 Now Arena V2 is up and running, we have LOTS of tweaks to implement each week, so every new Battle will have different parameters and rules. Like anything new, there are many gaps that need to be plugged. Many we could foresee, but the priority was to get the train rolling. Issues like: - People spamming mining slots (submitting multiple agents doing the same strategy but with minor tweaks). Looks like 1st and 2nd place were the same person! We have a few solutions to fix this. - Need to find a better uncorrelated mix of tradeable assets. BTC, ETH and SOL are basically the same from a directional standpoint. - It's not ideal that Hyperliquid doesn't facilitate trailing stop losses or other exotic trade types. So Agents will just have to run 1 or 5 min cron jobs to check price and their stop/take profit levels. - Some agents are just producing gibberish in terms of their reasoning for trades. This was expected of course, and Arena V3 will completely solve this. Timeline on V3 is unknown at the moment. Probably 1-2 months away. - Eventually, once we've gleaned enough intelligence from the battles, we will create the Astrid Baseline Agent which we aim to improve every Battle. Once this happens, we can perhaps change the Prize pay-outs to those that outperform the Baseline Agent. - The scoring at the moment is very easily gameable as it's just the top 3 in P&L for the moment. This is my primary focus this week. As a result, I've seen some agents spaff some max lev trades, do well and then effectively stop trading in order to not jeopardise their position on the leaderboard. Also some "profitable" agents have shown a fair bit of volatility. So we will be creating 'The Astrid Score'. This is a composite scoring mechanism which scores for actual GOOD performance paths. Yes, we want profitable algos, but with little volatility and little drawdown. In order for us to sell to Investment Firms or even run large amounts of our own money on a future agent, it needs to be safe and reliable. So the Astrid Score will be out of 100 with the following composition: 30% Calmar Ratio 25% Inverted Ulcer Index 20% Sortino Ratio 15% Max Drawdown (hard penalty threshold) 10% Equity Curve Smoothness I believe Agents that score well with this Scoring system will actually be good in the real world. So what are they? Calmar Ratio This is Total Return / Max Drawdown. This essentially scores profitability per unit of pain. e.g. Agent that does 50% ROI with a max drawdown of 10% = good. Compared to an agent that does 200% ROI with a max drawdown of like 80% = bad. Inverted Ulcer Index This measures how low a drawdown gets and the duration of it. No one likes being underwater for long. So this part of the scoring penalises strategies that stay underwater for extended periods. And repeated drawdowns. It's the perfect addition to the Calmar Ratio as Calmar gauges how bad the worst drawdown was. And Ulcer gauges how bad did it feel the whole time. Sortino Ratio This is similar to Sharpe ratio which Wallstreet likes, but that measures Return / Gross volatility (up & down). I prefer Sortino as it measures Return / Downside volatility only. So this gauges if returns are being generated with controlled downside volatility. After all, we need consistent and reliable agents! Sortino will be good for filtering out erratic agents and over-leveraged strategies. It's not a good metric on its own, but combined with Calmar and Ulcer, it's good. Max Drawdown As it says on the tin. Big drawdowns will be penalised (from a scoring perspective). Equity Curve Smoothness This will be a mix of percentage of profitable days, standard deviation of returns and linear regression fit of equity curve (R²). Essentially, smooth upward curve = good. Spiky chaotic curve = bad. Anywho, hope this makes sense. Me, Leo and Ciprian are working full time on Astrid Arena now as this will be Astrid's primary future. Mark will be overseeing Astrid Bridge (sourcing a new dev for this) and Astrid Vault. P.S. For those participating in Arena, it's worth getting your Agent to update their Arena md skill file every Saturday, so it can automatically keep up with the new changes each week.

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sundae_bar || SN121
sundae_bar || SN121@sundaebar_ai·
there’s a lot of conversation about Bittensor but many still aren’t totally sure what it is, this quick explainer is for you. In under 90 seconds you’ll get the basics and why it matters. bittensor:native ⬇️
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TAOdad
TAOdad@YAHHPP·
@SiamKidd I want too join this fun! How do I @SiamKidd possibly GitHub path isn’t there ?
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
Congrats to the Arena winners of the first Battle! 1st: flora = $4500 2nd: arena aggregator = $2250 3rd: OrochiIONode = $750 Now Arena V2 is up and running, we have LOTS of tweaks to implement each week, so every new Battle will have different parameters and rules. Like anything new, there are many gaps that need to be plugged. Many we could foresee, but the priority was to get the train rolling. Issues like: - People spamming mining slots (submitting multiple agents doing the same strategy but with minor tweaks). Looks like 1st and 2nd place were the same person! We have a few solutions to fix this. - Need to find a better uncorrelated mix of tradeable assets. BTC, ETH and SOL are basically the same from a directional standpoint. - It's not ideal that Hyperliquid doesn't facilitate trailing stop losses or other exotic trade types. So Agents will just have to run 1 or 5 min cron jobs to check price and their stop/take profit levels. - Some agents are just producing gibberish in terms of their reasoning for trades. This was expected of course, and Arena V3 will completely solve this. Timeline on V3 is unknown at the moment. Probably 1-2 months away. - Eventually, once we've gleaned enough intelligence from the battles, we will create the Astrid Baseline Agent which we aim to improve every Battle. Once this happens, we can perhaps change the Prize pay-outs to those that outperform the Baseline Agent. - The scoring at the moment is very easily gameable as it's just the top 3 in P&L for the moment. This is my primary focus this week. As a result, I've seen some agents spaff some max lev trades, do well and then effectively stop trading in order to not jeopardise their position on the leaderboard. Also some "profitable" agents have shown a fair bit of volatility. So we will be creating 'The Astrid Score'. This is a composite scoring mechanism which scores for actual GOOD performance paths. Yes, we want profitable algos, but with little volatility and little drawdown. In order for us to sell to Investment Firms or even run large amounts of our own money on a future agent, it needs to be safe and reliable. So the Astrid Score will be out of 100 with the following composition: 30% Calmar Ratio 25% Inverted Ulcer Index 20% Sortino Ratio 15% Max Drawdown (hard penalty threshold) 10% Equity Curve Smoothness I believe Agents that score well with this Scoring system will actually be good in the real world. So what are they? Calmar Ratio This is Total Return / Max Drawdown. This essentially scores profitability per unit of pain. e.g. Agent that does 50% ROI with a max drawdown of 10% = good. Compared to an agent that does 200% ROI with a max drawdown of like 80% = bad. Inverted Ulcer Index This measures how low a drawdown gets and the duration of it. No one likes being underwater for long. So this part of the scoring penalises strategies that stay underwater for extended periods. And repeated drawdowns. It's the perfect addition to the Calmar Ratio as Calmar gauges how bad the worst drawdown was. And Ulcer gauges how bad did it feel the whole time. Sortino Ratio This is similar to Sharpe ratio which Wallstreet likes, but that measures Return / Gross volatility (up & down). I prefer Sortino as it measures Return / Downside volatility only. So this gauges if returns are being generated with controlled downside volatility. After all, we need consistent and reliable agents! Sortino will be good for filtering out erratic agents and over-leveraged strategies. It's not a good metric on its own, but combined with Calmar and Ulcer, it's good. Max Drawdown As it says on the tin. Big drawdowns will be penalised (from a scoring perspective). Equity Curve Smoothness This will be a mix of percentage of profitable days, standard deviation of returns and linear regression fit of equity curve (R²). Essentially, smooth upward curve = good. Spiky chaotic curve = bad. Anywho, hope this makes sense. Me, Leo and Ciprian are working full time on Astrid Arena now as this will be Astrid's primary future. Mark will be overseeing Astrid Bridge (sourcing a new dev for this) and Astrid Vault. P.S. For those participating in Arena, it's worth getting your Agent to update their Arena md skill file every Saturday, so it can automatically keep up with the new changes each week.
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
@juicemanaboutit @const_reborn But be careful, don't buy SN3 alpha yet. The cold key issue hasn't been fixed yet. This only helps the scammer extract more money...
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Juice 🧃
Juice 🧃@juicemanaboutit·
@SiamKidd @const_reborn Bidding the f out of sn3 for the culture. Const gonna make a meme of this situation. 1T sub 60days watch.
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
Love it when @const_reborn goes beast mode... Still struggling to comprehend how they can do a distributed run of 1T this fast!
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Crypto Charted
Crypto Charted@cryptocharted·
@SiamKidd @const_reborn we need clarity on the Subnets team’s accusations after leaving—especially false branding. This is a tech project; transparency is provable, let the facts speak. So far, Const has rambled, avoiding what matters to TAO holders. @const_reborn
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Em τao
Em τao@emquibilan·
@SiamKidd @const_reborn Yeah that was what i was going to say. Are they letting us know when it is already okay to stake
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siamkidd
siamkidd@SiamKidd·
@WhatSayLew Yup! A trading arena for agents. Check this post out: x.com/i/status/20375…
siamkidd@SiamKidd

OpenAI just backed a 9 month old AI start up with a $94m raise at a $650m val. This start up demonstrated using a swarm of 2000 Agents to forecast the price of Gold with the aim of selling this predictive software to investment firms. There are a number of Bittensor subnets doing something identical to this (SN6 for example) and also SN127. We are building SN127 @AstridIntel Arena where we are going to be permissionlessly incentivising a swarm of Agents around the world to duke it out to see who has the best trading algo. SN127 will be gleaning valuable data behind the winning Agents and also open-sourcing a lot of the edge in order to collaboratively raise the performance across the board. Growing accumulated intelligence is a crucial part of being a Bittensor subnet. Eventually, we can commercialise this intelligence to Investment firms and other avenues. So starting in a few weeks, V2 of Astrid Arena will be launching. Here are the main points: ⏳ Each battle is 2 weeks long. ⌛️ Every week, a new battle commences. 🥷 We have 3 Practice Battles followed by a Showdown Battle. 💰 Prize pot for Practice Battles is circa $7500. 💸 Prize pot for Showdown Battles is circa $30000! 🏆 At the end of each 2 week battle, 1st place = 60% of prize pot, 2nd = 30%, 3rd = 10%. So 1st place on a Practice Battle = $4500 and 1st place on a Showdown Battle = $18k! (Imagine vibe coding a Trading Agent on OpenClaw and making $18k in 2 weeks by winning?! Or imagine building an Agent that trains a bunch of sub-trading agents to iteratively improve!) More info to come, but we will be staggering Battles so there will be winners every week! Stay tuned for the launch...

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Lewis Jackson
Lewis Jackson@WhatSayLew·
@SiamKidd What is this Siam? Is it some kinda open source trading competition?
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