
Sidharth Malhotra
2.2K posts

Sidharth Malhotra
@sidml
Bokononist & registered member of several granfalloons. Not investing advice.











Fortune Magazine profile on Jamie Dimon from 1984 when he was just 2 years out of his MBA at Harvard





Trump won't attend his son's wedding.


Anthropic is projecting $300 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Its model training costs peak at ~$120 billion in 2028. At that peak, training costs exceed 100% of revenue. That is the central tension in this business. The left panel shows Anthropic's revenue broken into three segments—consumer (Claude subscriptions and API), enterprise (B2B contracts and cloud partnerships), and new products including hardware. The trajectory reaches roughly $13B in 2025, crosses $100B around 2027, and approaches $300B by 2030. The top right panel shows what it costs to produce those models—training compute costs grow from near-zero in 2024 to a peak of ~$120B in 2027–2028, then decline as algorithmic efficiency improves. The bottom right panel is the one that matters to anyone evaluating Anthropic as a business. Training cost as a share of revenue exceeds 100% from 2026 through 2028 — the company is spending more on model training alone than it takes in. This is the structural condition of every frontier AI lab today. The bet is that efficiency gains compress per token training costs while deployed model revenue continues compounding, and the lines cross permanently in 2029. That crossing is what a path to profitability looks like at frontier scale. The position—Anthropic at $44B ARR today is real and accelerating. The $300B by 2030 projection is plausible given enterprise adoption curves. But the company remains pre profit through at least 2027, and the margin is entirely hostage to whether the next generation of models requires a step change in compute or benefits from efficiency gains. Every hyperscaler dollar going to inference infrastructure rather than training clusters helps. Every new frontier model that requires 10× more compute hurts. The next 18 months of model releases will determine which force dominates



































