skyzyks

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skyzyks

@skyzyks

Mathematics, mountains and music. Not necessarily in that order.

Earth Katılım Kasım 2022
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
@davidpdeavel is correct in general. You are correct for some very specific and very well qualified students. This is a time for hard and very careful choices. Higher Ed has been contracting nationwide since shortly before the start of COVID and it hasn't stopped and will continue. The coming closure of Hampshire college, the closure of whole programs as West Virginia University are just examples of what has been happening outside the bubble surrounding Harvard Yard for at least 5 years. My state university system is looking at a 7% decline in enrollment for the coming year, so they say. It's early and there is always hope, but the System is baking in a 5% cut in general revenue allocations for the next FY. That is the beginning of hard times brought on by a demographic and hence enrollment collapse that is *baked in*. Look at the linked chart carefully. Here is what it tells you: Over the next 15+ years there will be a 17% decline in the college-aged cohorts of the US population. You are looking at an enrollment apocalypse. Trust me, Enrollment Managements and upper administrations nationwide are quite aware of this. There is no "solution" to this. Those cohorts don't magically grow. Downsizing is the only option. The employment market for recent PhD's has been a disaster for a decade particularly in the humanities, and I can tell you that it's been a golden age for hiring committees in mathematics for nearly 20 years. STEM grads haven't been immune to this. Well, it's about to become an order of magnitude harder as tenure line positions dry up in the contraction to come. Advising people to pursue a career of chasing post doc and adjunct positions in the hope of landing a tenure line position becomes irresponsible in this environment.
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
@johnkonrad “God is on the side of the biggest battalions.”— Napoleon “Mass has a quality of its own.”—unknown
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John Ʌ Konrad V
John Ʌ Konrad V@johnkonrad·
“There is confusion about the new baltleship,” said Navy CNO Daryl Caudle. “Let me make this clear… the battleship is about payload volume! You have to bring the mass.”
John Ʌ Konrad V tweet media
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
LOL…You expect them to do that? I mean, like, for real? Here’s my question to you and other 2SS diehards: You’ve seen the October 7 attack, you’ve read the founding charters of Hamas, the PA, and Hezbollah presumably. You’ve heard their statements over and over. What exactly, short of all out genocide, would it take for you to accept “No (existence)” for an answer?
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Seth Mandel
Seth Mandel@SethAMandel·
I think, after Arafat's Camp David rejection and then Abbas's rejection, it would be helpful for some of us longtime advocates of 2SS if the Palestinian govt would hold up a map and say "this is what we will accept" or "here is what we demand in return for *ending the conflict*"
Noam Dworman@noam_dworman

Kind of AMAZING that @mattyglesias and mostly everyone have forgotten that the Israeli Prime Minister made a UN speech calling for the 2-state solution in September of '22. It was answered with rockets... Nobody really cared.

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Apple Lamps
Apple Lamps@lamps_apple·
Nikolas Bowie is the most plausible single candidate for the documentary source of the Shadow Papers. If he is not the direct source, the source is almost certainly inside his network. The Times published seven memos from the February 2016 Clean Power Plan stay deliberation. Six justices. Roberts twice. Breyer, Kagan, Alito, Kennedy, Sotomayor once each. Six of the seven look identical in format. Chambers letterhead. Initials or signature at the bottom. The seventh does not. The Sotomayor memo carries no chambers letterhead, no signature, no initials, and a date of February 16, three days after Scalia died, when every other memo in the packet runs February 5 through February 9. Either the date is a typo for February 6 and the memo was printed later on plain paper from a chambers working file, or it is a non-circulated draft Sotomayor wrote after Scalia died that never went to conference. Both readings point at one chamber. Whoever handed this memo to the Times had access to something that did not travel through the normal distribution. Sotomayor's four OT 2015 clerks were Easha Anand, Nikolas Bowie, Bridget Fahey, and Matt Shahabian. Three of them have gone quietly into appellate practice and doctrinal scholarship. Anand runs the Supreme Court litigation clinic at Stanford. Fahey teaches federalism at Chicago. Shahabian is in private practice. None has built a public career against the Court. Bowie has. For five years he has been building the most developed academic case in the country for dismantling Supreme Court power, with the shadow docket as a named reform target. His 2021 testimony to the Biden Commission called the Court "antidemocratic." His 2021 Harvard Law Review Foreword, titled Antidemocracy, runs the length of a short book in service of the same thesis. In October 2024 he co-authored a New York Times op-ed with Daphna Renan titled "The Supreme Court Has Grown Too Powerful. Congress Must Intervene." His Liveright book with Renan, Supremacy: How Rule by the Court Replaced Government by the People, lands September 15, 2026. Seven weeks before the midterms. He sits on the board of People's Parity Project. And he has not kept the playbook theoretical. In 2023, on Elie Mystal's Contempt of Court, Bowie walked through the specific mechanisms Congress could deploy to disempower the Court… jurisdiction stripping, funding control, supermajority requirements on Court orders, the entire menu. He told Mystal the obstacle is not legal but cultural. "It's just a question of what do you think you could politically do to reassert democracy." Then there is the Kantor relationship. On February 2, 2026, ten weeks before the leak, Jodi Kantor published a front-page Times piece on Chief Justice Roberts's new nondisclosure agreements. Bowie was the closing quote. "If the public were aware of how much of the deliberations affecting millions of people are made by 27-year-olds after happy hour, they'd be shocked." Ten weeks later, Kantor and Adam Liptak showed the public exactly how those deliberations happen. Days before the drop, Bowie appeared on a Harvard Law School panel titled Why I Changed My Mind, seated between Samantha Power and Yochai Benkler, moderated by Jonathan Zittrain. On that stage, in front of a live audience, he anchored himself to the exact term the leaked memos are from. "I clerked on the Supreme Court in 2016 and I was there when Justice Scalia died." Then he told the audience the Court cannot be reformed through normal means. "I'm actually probably never going to see a liberal Supreme Court in my lifetime, absent any kind of really a change from without." A change from without. Put the pieces together. A four-year Kantor-Liptak source operation running successive inside-the-Court exposures. Roberts's late-2024 NDAs covering only current personnel, leaving the 2015-era clerk cohort beyond their reach. The Dobbs investigation precedent proving the Marshal's office cannot identify leakers. Bowie's named role as Kantor's closing quote in the precursor piece. The forensic tell in the packet pointing at Sotomayor's chambers specifically. His own words days before the drop placing him in that chamber during that term. The Shadow Papers advance the Bowie-Renan-Vladeck-People's Parity Project agenda with a precision that demands explanation. In my reading, the pattern is most consistent with Bowie's involvement.
Apple Lamps tweet media
The New York Times@nytimes

Secret memos by Supreme Court justices, obtained by The New York Times, show how they decided to bypass time-tested procedures and create the modern “shadow docket,” a controversial new way of doing business. nyti.ms/4csrD0l

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Natalie Wolchover
Natalie Wolchover@nattyover·
What's especially cool is that the flagellar motor exploits the indivisibility of 5 by 2 to run on a fuel of rising entropy as protons diffuse into cells. For me as a physics and math person, this is biology at its best. quantamagazine.org/what-physical-…
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Everest Today
Everest Today@EverestToday·
Panoramic view of Mt Everest and the surrounding Himalayan peaks in the spring of 2026. Video ©: @poornimashresth.
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
All Boomers had great-grandparents and many had grandparents who were born in the late 19th century. So, presumably all Boomers have spoken with someone born in the 19th century. All parents of Boomers, some of whom are till alive, surely did and they might well have spoken with a Civil War vet the last of whom died shortly before the first of the Boomers arrived. So, there are a lot out there who have.
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Sophia ❣️
Sophia ❣️@KeruboSk·
Just out of curiosity… who out there has actually talked to someone born in the 1800s during their lifetime?
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Alec Stapp
Alec Stapp@AlecStapp·
The amount of fraud in education research at elite universities should get way more attention
Alec Stapp tweet mediaAlec Stapp tweet mediaAlec Stapp tweet mediaAlec Stapp tweet media
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
She complains about weapons delivery. This might have something to do with the latest NSS and the prioritizing of the Indo-Pacific over (Western) Europe as a US defense priority. Ukraine is not in NATO. Iran is at the western edge of the Indo-Pacific. Now…if things heat up in the Western Pacific with the PRC, imagine what the delays will be like then.
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Velina Tchakarova
Velina Tchakarova@vtchakarova·
May I politely ask why Europe hasn‘t managed to start producing weapon systems for Ukraine & itself after 4 years of the worst war on the continent? Or is this also the fault of the Americans? Are we Europeans that kind of infantile and with zero skin in the game? Embarrassing.
Pepel Klaasa@pepel_klaasa

The United States is holding up virtually all weapons deliveries purchased by EU countries. It is not like we’re completely defenseless here, but it’s obvious that if Russia attacks within the next year or two, we can’t rely not only on U.S. assistance – but even on weapons supplies. For Estonia, this is especially critical. news.err.ee/1610000377/est…

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mrredpillz jokaqarmy
mrredpillz jokaqarmy@JOKAQARMY1·
One of the greatest commentaies ever. 🤣
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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
"Trump’s National Security Strategy is explicit about confronting China and re‑asserting control over the Western Hemisphere, and Canada sits squarely inside that frame." I have been writing for months that people need to carefully read that National Security Statement (NSS). It is the product of a rising cadre within the US NatSec establishment and is the product of that establishment. Trump didn't write it. It was described both by Vance and a year later by Rubio in the same European security conference forum. There was no difference in the details. Rubio, however, presented it with flowers in hand. The long-delayed "Pivot to Asia" and the Indo-Pacific more generally is happening right now. Western Hemispheric defense and the pivot are to be prioritized over (Western) European security as a US concern. The moves on Panama, Venezuela, the major maritime choke points and...Iran, which sits at the western edge of the Indo-Pacific should be seen in light of that document. Even the elevation as a security concern of Greenland at the eastern edge of the Western Hemisphere and sitting next to the GIUK gap is fully consistent with that statement. Few seem to know that the US has been trying to acquire Greenland, off and on, over the span of 150 years. Secretary of State Seward tried at the same time as his acquisition of Alaska, Robert Perry the polar explorer and General Billy Mitchell of WWII fame both advocated for its acquisition, pre-1940 war plans called for its seizure which happened upon entry, President Truman tried to buy it after the war without success, but the long standing interest remains and is now highlighted by increased emphasis on Western Hemispheric security and the aggressive reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine in the face of Chinese influence and acquisitions. The US isn't abandoning Europe (or Canada), but it is expecting it to do more for its own defense while the US is off in the Indo-Pacific countering an increasingly aggressive PRC and PLA-N. The increasing possibility of a direct confrontation between the US and China in the Western Pacific is considered all too real by the authors of the NSS and I don't think those authors are expecting any positive contribution from Europe or even NATO in that event. Trump is the most vocal about this, but he is far from alone in that expectation.
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James E. Thorne
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy·
Food for thought. PM Carney is feeding reality to Canada in bite‑sized pieces and asking the country to listen carefully, not applaud politely. He is saying, in plain language, that Pax Americana is dead, CUSMA carve‑outs are favours not rights, and an economy wired to a bygone, post‑war order will not pay tomorrow’s bills. President Trump’s America First agenda forces not just Canada but the entire world to reprice its assumptions about the U.S. and to adapt to a superpower that is openly prioritizing domestic industrial capacity, productive capital investment, and secure critical supply chains. Trump’s National Security Strategy is explicit about confronting China and re‑asserting control over the Western Hemisphere, and Canada sits squarely inside that frame. In that context, pipelines, LNG, critical minerals, and tidewater routes to Asia and Europe are not optional; they are the hard leverage Canada has avoided building for too long. As Secretary Bessent has warned, the objective is to de‑risk, not de‑couple and those are very wise words Canada needs to heed. The good news is that Carney is right on the fundamentals: Canada actually has what the world wants, reliable energy, critical minerals, food, water, and stability. The question his statement poses is brutally simple: what is Canada going to do, concretely, to turn that endowment into strategy and bargaining power? That answer will not be found in virtue signalling, communiqués, or climate press releases; it will be found in permits issued, pipelines built, ports expanded, and supply chains to Asia and Europe that actually move molecules and metals at scale. His underlying message is that this is no longer the comfortable post‑Second‑World‑War era in which Canada could plug into a stable U.S.‑led order and coast. The basic architecture of Canada and Europe economy was built for a world of that is gone. What now sits in front of Canada is not a tweak, but a rebuilding: a structural change that demands we realign our economy around our own strengths, resources, geography, and infrastructure, rather than around assumptions about a permanent Pax Americana. If Canada is serious about its goals in this new era, it will prove it not with slogans, but with concrete in the ground and tankers at tidewater.
CBS News@CBSNews

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a 10-minute video address released Sunday that Canada’s strong economic ties to the United States were once a strength but are now a weakness that must be corrected. Carney further spoke about his government’s efforts to strengthen the Canadian economy by attracting new investments and signing trade deals with other countries.

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Reid Wiseman
Reid Wiseman@astro_reid·
Only one chance in this lifetime… Like watching sunset at the beach from the most foreign seat in the cosmos, I couldn’t resist a cell phone video of Earthset. You can hear the shutter on the Nikon as @Astro_Christina is hammering away on 3-shot brackets and capturing those exceptional Earthset photos through the 400mm lens. @AstroVicGlover was in window 3 watching with @Astro_Jeremy next to him. I could barely see the Moon through the docking hatch window but the iPhone was the perfect size to catch the view…this is uncropped, uncut with 8x zoom which is quite comparable to the view of the human eye. Enjoy.
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Wilfred Reilly
Wilfred Reilly@wil_da_beast630·
I don't plan to do more gender banter today, but will say that this is MY question for BLACK activists. We have formal, institutionalized, pro-POC affirmative action programs. 28% of all new marriages are inter-racial. In this climate, black people from stable POC powers like Nigeria slightly out-pace whites, and white men often face discrimination. When is the war...over?
Evie Magazine@Evie_Magazine

"Throughout many of my debates with feminists, I've asked a simple question: 'When will you stop fighting? What is going to be good enough for you?' Most of them can't give me an answer. It's not because the question is confusing or unfair, but because they can't admit the flaws of their own movement. Women are outperforming men on every metric right now: college enrollment, graduate degrees, consumer spending power, social mobility. Yet we still see major influencers claiming women are oppressed and will never be as successful as men. At a certain point, you have to ask: do these women actually want to be oppressed?" Click to read: bit.ly/4tPIDU2 By @savannafstone

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skyzyks@skyzyks·
IF what you say is true, then it rests upon the willing belief of millions in the Twelver eschatology. That being the case then, as in all eschatological cults, its end comes with a radical demonstration that shatters the belief. Destroying the power systems, particularly the stepdown transformers, the big ones requiring six months, a year or more, to replace because there isn't a warehouse full these awaiting purchase, sending them all back to the 7th century for a year without the hidden imam reappearing might do the trick. Let's see if the IRGC can maintain control in the absence of any electricity.
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Trent Telenko
Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko·
This underestimates Iran’s Mullahocracy’s “Sampson Opinion,’ as the ‘involuntary martyrdom’ of every innocent civilian within reach is a key pillar of their faith. 😱⬇️
Flopping Aces@FloppingAces

Iran's apocalyptic death cult is finished The Mahdi’s long-awaited revolution just ran out of martyrs and lies. After decades of screaming “Death to America” and building an eschatological doomsday machine, the IRGC’s end-times fantasy has officially collapsed under its own weight. Khamenei is dead, the proxy armies are crumbling, Syria is gone, Hezbollah is negotiating, and now even Arab media is openly calling out the Shia theocracy as a fraudulent death cult that treats modernity as Dajjalic corruption while it starves its own people and attacks its “allies” in Iraq. Trump didn’t just hit their nukes and missiles ... he exposed the fatal flaw: when your entire ideology insists that losing proves you’re right and reality is optional, eventually reality collects its debt. The revolutionary aim is exhausted. The mullahs’ sacred aggression has destroyed them. A new Middle East is being born ... and it doesn’t include the Islamic Republic. (article below)

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David Bernstein
David Bernstein@ProfDBernstein·
Here's the rub: North American and European foreign policy elites said, "take risks for peace, make concessions, and if the other side proves obdurate, we will back you up." Israel allowed Arafat to set up government in Ramallah, offered peace deals well within internationally expected parameters, withdrew from Lebanon, then Gaza and parts of Samaria, and each move let to more violent attacks on Israel. Instead of backing Israel up, said elites reserved almost all their blame and indeed vitriol for Israel. You're a smart guy, Matt. What incentives does that create?
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias

The belief that global perceptions of Israel are totally unrelated to Israeli conduct is extremely widespread, both in Israel and in American pro-Israel circles. It's also wildly implausible and helps explain a lot about both Israeli behavior and Israel's cratering reputation.

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skyzyks@skyzyks·
@TFL1728 LOL…”Neutering European/British aggression is a strategic(…)Russian goal” since the 19th century.
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Tom Luongo
Tom Luongo@TFL1728·
Excellent analysis. Now consider that both Russia and China know the IRGC is dead and have propped them up to make them think they have a chance. Before they are wiped out. Because that puts to bed the threat forever, and guts the possibility of any restarting of hostilities, thus neutering the European/London interests who created this intolerable situation in the first place. Neutering European/British aggression is a strategic Chinese and Russian goal.
Harold__Finch@HaroldWren22

First observation: there will be no deal. The ceasefire will end & the war will re-commence. Second observation: the US has been flooding the Theater with reinforcements, resupplies & performing maintenance on air assets non-stop, & re-arming warships. The force is ready & its larger than its ever been. Third observation: every key player left in the regime surfaced from their hide holes & safe houses during this ceasefire. The regime ‘negotiation’ team sent to stall America. The IRGC thugs who showed up in Islamabad to stop the Iranian Regime delegation from making any deals. The midlevel staffers going between the IRGC thug leadership & the IRGC cannon fodder still shooting at ships. All of them broke cover & came back up on the grid. From that point on, they were visible to the human intelligence networks watching them, the persistent ISR assets watching 24 hours a day, 7 days a week without pause— spy satellites, stealth & non stealth drones, manned reconnaissance aircraft. From the moment this ceasefire started, everyone who is a key player in Iran’s continued resistance came back on the grid & have been surveilled ever since. The intelligence mosaic is fully fleshed out & these targets are being tracked in real time, and the strike plans created with the help of AI are already set & planned. When the ceasefire ends, the strikes will be begin with such rapid speed, & precision it will be much more savage & fearsome than the first round. Fourth observation: Iran received drones, SAM missile systems & radars & intelligence from China during this ceasefire & this is still ongoing. This is what’s driving the remnants of the IRGC to continue the war. They do not fully comprehend what is set to take place, or how completely unable to counter it or survive it they are. That’s partly due to history, partly due to institutional arrogance of IRGC, & partly & most importantly because China & Russia simply do not understand our full capabilities— in terms of intelligence collection, planning, speed we can act on those things, & how good our situational awareness of the battlefield is. That last one is the key: the disconnect— how clear & complete our granular picture all the way up to the grand strategic picture is, compared to how blinded & how fragmented the situational awareness of the Iranians is. That last part is what really, really scares Russia & China— the vast gap in cognitive capabilities & situational awareness capabilites between the US & them scares them because its a gap they cant bridge, & beyond that the speed we can act on that clear picture is something they cant match. This war is going to restart after the ceasefire ends, & all hell is going to break loose— & the ferocity of what comes next is going to genuinely surprise the IRGC fanatics driving events in this direction.

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skyzyks@skyzyks·
@InezFeltscher x.com/skyzyks/status…
skyzyks@skyzyks

@davidpdeavel is correct in general. You are correct for some very specific and very well qualified students. This is a time for hard and very careful choices. Higher Ed has been contracting nationwide since shortly before the start of COVID and it hasn't stopped and will continue. The coming closure of Hampshire college, the closure of whole programs as West Virginia University are just examples of what has been happening outside the bubble surrounding Harvard Yard for at least 5 years. My state university system is looking at a 7% decline in enrollment for the coming year, so they say. It's early and there is always hope, but the System is baking in a 5% cut in general revenue allocations for the next FY. That is the beginning of hard times brought on by a demographic and hence enrollment collapse that is *baked in*. Look at the linked chart carefully. Here is what it tells you: Over the next 15+ years there will be a 17% decline in the college-aged cohorts of the US population. You are looking at an enrollment apocalypse. Trust me, Enrollment Managements and upper administrations nationwide are quite aware of this. There is no "solution" to this. Those cohorts don't magically grow. Downsizing is the only option. The employment market for recent PhD's has been a disaster for a decade particularly in the humanities, and I can tell you that it's been a golden age for hiring committees in mathematics for nearly 20 years. STEM grads haven't been immune to this. Well, it's about to become an order of magnitude harder as tenure line positions dry up in the contraction to come. Advising people to pursue a career of chasing post doc and adjunct positions in the hope of landing a tenure line position becomes irresponsible in this environment.

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skyzyks
skyzyks@skyzyks·
@InezFeltscher 17% decline in college-aged cohorts over the next 15 years. Enrollment apocalypse.
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Inez Stepman ⚪️🔴⚪️
Inez Stepman ⚪️🔴⚪️@InezFeltscher·
One of the reasons I’m so bullish on the future of higher ed (aka the sector will look very different in 5-10 years than it does now, which is a very good thing) is that a bunch of hits are coming their way at once. Add up demographic decline slamming into our schools with excellent and aggressive Trump admin policy re: grants and CRA, and you have a recipe for deep change just in order to survive.
Ryan Burge 📊@ryanburge

In Spring of 2016, the on campus enrollment at Eastern Illinois University was 6,991. In Spring of 2026, it was 3,660. That's a decline of 48% in just ten years. This is happening right now to dozens of directional universities throughout the Midwest.

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Keşfet

@johnkonrad @poornimashresth @SwipeWright @instapundit @Astro_Christina @AstroVicGlover @Astro_Jeremy @elonmusk