Vignesh retweetledi
In the late 1960's, Paul Ehrlich was advocating for cutting off emergency food aid to India.
This would have caused mass starvation.
When people say that he was evil, this is what they mean.
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Vignesh
881 posts
Vignesh
@sportquant
Recovering sportsquant, now attempting better quests.
Katılım Mart 2022
4.9K Takip Edilen236 Takipçiler
It’s striking how little of the value of AI labs accrues to founders.
Anthropic’s cofounders reportedly hold only ~1.8% each. Sam Altman had no equity in OpenAI for years. No founder of a frontier AI lab appears in the top 500 of the Forbes billionaires list, unless they made most of their wealth from other companies.
This looks quite different from earlier tech companies. At Facebook’s IPO, Zuckerberg held ~28% of the company. At Google’s IPO, Larry and Sergey held ~16% each.
I think this mostly reflects the fact that by far the most valuable factor of production in frontier AI is compute, not founders. Building a leading lab requires tens of billions in capital before meaningful revenue, and each raise dilutes founders substantially.
Celia Ford@cogcelia
Anthropic employees may be on the brink of getting very, very rich. Many of them, including its co-founders, have pledged to give a lot of that money away. If that money materializes, it could flood EA-aligned nonprofits with cash, including those aiming to regulate, audit, and review Anthropic itself. Whether that's good or bad depends on who you ask. I covered this potential wave of Anthropic wealth for @ReadTransformer:
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The B-1 invokes a sense of primeval horror in me. There was something very dark and nasty that looked like this a long time ago.
Charlie Peters@CDP1882
The first of several American B-1 heavy bombers has landed at RAF Fairford today after Keir Starmer gave the US permission to use British bases for strikes on Iran
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@_AashishReddy I'm sure his informational environment is great - with or without insider knowledge - but I doubt that matters as much anyway. The HBM trade, for instance, was all over fintwit last year before that materialized.
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I’ve never seen any discourse about this but I did notice a while ago that Leopold is running an AGI hedge fund on the basis of his Situational Awareness on what’s coming, while engaged to someone presumably with tons of insider info. Curious how this works, from people who know?
Otto Zampulu@zampulu92728
@Duderichy In the early innings I was skeptical of this fund as a levered beta vehicle but his 13Fs show he has lots of Alpha. How could he not? Sleeps next to Anthropic Chief of Staff, friends with Ilya, Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh, etc. his informational flow is elite. I would love to be an LP.
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They're selling pennies for 25 cents
Sam D'Amico@sdamico
A couple weeks later, pennies are now worth $0.25 I take back everything I said about crypto
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Hot take:
Japan has actually a good chance of competently replacing Taiwan as a second source for low node chips, if/when we inevitably lose Taiwan. Obviously, best if Arizona works, and I think it will, but Japan could augment that/act as a backup.
First of all, this isn't, as the article puts forward, a TSMC clone like in Arizona. It's a company that is producing advanced node chips that has an ownership stake from TSMC. Therefore, while they're at 3nm now, they can more easily jump to 2nm without having the mothership's permission.
More importantly, though, Japan and the US have about the same equipment ecosystem (Taiwan relies on the US and EU primarily for equipment). The thing is, Taiwan isn't that efficient. Japan is far better at manufacturing in general. Their TFP is somewhat higher than Taiwan's (though lower than Korea).
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@kipperrii He has a cool answer to this. Free soloing - especially at his level - is so far beyond the capacity of normies where, if you've gotten to that point where you can conceivably get even a few feet up, you probably have a bunch of brain cells that can rationally assess that risk.
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i think alex honnold an amazing human being and a man of great character. hope nothing bad happens to him, like lying in bed awake at night realising that his work encourages other people to do things that lead to their death and that if he died in a climb it likely save lives
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Vignesh retweetledi
No matter how high the Sharpe ratio of your firm is, you will be constantly reminded that you were born to suffer.
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@willcritchlow @paulg @GJarrosson I think it's equally plausible that causality runs the other way. People reply quickly because they're successful i.e. they're better organized, there are no fires to fight etc.
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@paulg @GJarrosson I’m fascinated by how this would imply “have notifications on for new emails” is good advice and yet it doesn’t *feel* right (points to busy work and admin over deep work and value).
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When Sam Altman was at Y Combinator, he built a script that monitored how quickly the best founders and worst founders replied to their emails.
"It was a difference of minutes versus days on average response time"
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It's sad how much random hate Lex gets.
He's exposed millions of people (who don't have your Twitter feed) to ideas in science/tech which they'd never have encountered otherwise.
And there's 100s of hours of recorded insights from great minds that wouldn't exist without him.
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OpenAI, Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks, Anthropic are worth $100B–$500B+, yet none have ever shown no real capital allocation skill — no second-act acquisitions, no super accretive redeployments of cash flow…
is this the first time in history that wasn’t required to reach this scale?
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@hamandcheese I think this is a little harsh. Their Silicon business is a large part of why their products still hold away (especially with professional users) and Tim Cook was largely behind that.
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@sportquant Yes I’ve seen that before, where otherwise smart people can’t remember fictional plots of movies and shows weeks after seeing them. But it often doesn’t extend to real life things, suggesting that reality fits into a world model which accesses memory in a different way.
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How can one reconcile this description of Bohr with the common sense notion that IQ and crystallized intelligence is closely correlated with speed of thought and reaction time, to the point where young children’s intelligence is often measured using that sort of thing (Raven’s Matrices and so on)?
His brain must have worked very differently than most. It’s almost like an engine on a very low gear that goes very slowly, but with extreme torque so it never gets stuck in the mud.
(credit to @tokenbender for finding this fascinating page from George Gamow’s memoir)
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