AQ Capital

If Munger/Buffet taught us something, it is that if you can compound your investments at 30% p.a., you don't need to tweet about it, you don't need followers, you don't need to sell a newsletter. Just do it.

🔴🔴🔴 MUST WATCH 🔴🔴🔴 RBC's Helima Croft @CroftHelima : Energy markets need to look at actions instead of words cnb.cx/3NuNiew

@BULLReturns I hope they were not greedy and locked the price >5000 We could be trading at 2000 in 2028

.....Which are trading at < 0.25x 2028 CF? $MCI.v #gold

@anasalhajji I remember my learnings from Trump 1.0: A Trump presidency will always be about damage control. He doesn’t just apply the USA Inc. strategy. This time the administration is friends, family and foreign agents.

OMG! I just remembered that I wrote an article a while ago and published it in World Oil magazine. It’s right at the heart of today’s events and what President Trump said today. I’m searching for it!

@BladeoftheS Written in 1996

For the last 30 years we have been stuck almost non-stop in pointless wars in the Middle East. Wars that could and should have been completely avoided.

@GoldForecast If any of them had the good idea to lock a price >5k they would be sitting on a gold mine 😆 Who wasn’t greedy?

The first problem for miners is oil spike. Now comes the second problem: discount rate. Bond yields are soaring, so we need to increase the discount rate. Only hold miners with near term cash flow. The higher discount rate will kill future cash flows.

Interest groups want to keep the state of war. They also love Twitter/X, which is a constant state of war between extreme opinions; trolls, it's a dream come true for the group of interest, keep people busy with constant conflict in their minds, never let them rest, never let them think.

If the war continues for a few weeks with a full closure of the Hormuz, we will witness worse supply shock-induced systemic crisis than GFC 2007-08. It’s the scarcity of 8mbd coupled with destruction of gas supply and cascading contagion in petrochemicals, fertilizers, food, etc.

@MrEddie8976 @JoumannaTV The main business model of medieval Europe. Tolls and goods commerce We’re back to basics

@JoumannaTV So, they're essentially running a toll bridge...

Iran: "you can pass.. but for a fee" FT: Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported on Wednesday that a tanker operator had paid a $2mn fee to Iran in exchange for safe passage through the strait.

@humeyra_pamuk @JonathanLanday Why does the current administration want to keep Orban in power at any cost? @Itwitius

SCOOP: Vice President JD Vance is planning to visit Hungary in the coming days in a show of support for the country's long-time nationalist prime ​minister Viktor Orban, who is facing a difficult election next month, sources familiar ‌with the planning tell me & @JonathanLanday

@humeyra_pamuk @JonathanLanday Why does the current administration want to keep Orban in power at any cost? @vtchakarova @ektrit

Syria’s water supply is Turkey Turkey decides Syria’s destination Russia is the cheapest energy for Europe. Chirac-Merkel gave Putin a seat on the table, he wanted the table You can go on and on Geography is stronger than politics Lucky if your neighbors are like minded friends, life’s much easier

@vtchakarova Give us an example to better understand it

History and geography teach us that you can win all the battles and still lose the war.

@grok @hajiyev_rashad @grok how did central bank buying volumes evolve in 2025 vs 2024?

From my analysis of recent X posts, forecasts, and commentator threads (bullish targets from $6k-$8k+ by analysts/JPM/etc vs short-term dip views), roughly 60-70% argue for higher gold prices ahead from ~$5k levels, driven by CB buying and macro risks. Short-term sentiment is more split ~50/50 on this pullback. Valid take on producer hedging and above-ground supply as a cap—history shows both sides play out in cycles. What's your full view?

Gold at the opening sold off and tested March 3 low and since then has been trying to hold. Metals have been largely doing nothing for the past 2 weeks...

@ValueSeeker_ Where do we stand in terms of cost of production vs. Market price?

Never has coal be so inexpensive relative to gold. While reverting to its median would imply a +270% outperformance relative to gold, overshooting to reach its 75th percentile would bring this outperformance to +435%. $COAL

@anasalhajji … captain Odysseus Yang here, all Chinese crew, Kostas Xi and Theophiles Yie to assist me… thank you…

Here is an oil tanker that crossed the Hormuz Strait with no incident. It will arrive at Mumbai port in India tonight. It is carrying about 1 mb of Arab Light crude from Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia. It is a tanker owned by a major greek shipping company owned by George Prokopiou,who is known for his bald moves.

@biancoresearch @RonStoeferle 😆 Remember when @elonmusk was om that team, I said he wouldn’t last long, too smart Now they are between friends

The only reason I do not allow my children to play in the middle of the highway is the cars speeding at 70 MPH. Otherwise, the highway is open as a playground.

@MnkeDaniel Do you know any paying user leaving duol for a competitor? I don’t

$DUOL will either be down another 80% in 5 years or 5x larger. Duolingo is one of the most divisive companies I follow. Some see the next great learning platform. Others see a mobile game dressed up as education. Here's the $DUOL Investment Case in a nutshell: 1. The numbers have held up against every AI bear case. Since ChatGPT launched, DAUs have grown from 15M to 50M. Revenue from $250M to nearly $1B. Operating margins from -17.5% to +11%. 2. Only 1% of the money in a market where it has 7% of the users. Duolingo captures ~7% of all language learners but only ~1% of the money spent on language education globally. As monetization improves and spending moves online, that gap is the entire bull case in one sentence. 3. 20% of users generate 50% of revenue. U.S. users are 20% of DAUs but are responsible for half of all revenue. Outside the U.S. and Europe, even power users prefer watching ads over paying, even at prices significantly below U.S. rates. This could be a structural monetization ceiling. 4. Founder with skin in the game. Luis von Ahn co-founded Duolingo in 2011, previously sold reCAPTCHA to Google, and holds a ~7% stake. Long-term focused, mission-driven, and runs earnings calls as mostly Q&A — a small thing that says a lot. 5. Potential Data Moat: 50M daily users generate a ton of data that no competitor can replicate. On top of that, Duolingo runs ~750 A/B tests per quarter, optimizing everything from icon color to core lesson structure. That's a compounding operational advantage. The weakness: no network effect. You don't directly benefit from other users being on the platform, as with other tech giants 6. $DUOL doesn't have any physical infrastructure. Without that, it has historically been difficult for apps to become successful businesses. More here:

@HFI_Research Ze famous macro trader. Used to manage 6bn of client money No manages a few tn of IS treasury

What can I say? 🤷‍♂️

@michaeljburry I think markets are still functioning in a traditional way in Europe Perhaps overvalued but no perma bid from passive

In light of market events, I am making this article free for the next 24 hours. Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value Powerful Trends, Increasing Fragility & Coiled Tension open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu…

@insane_analyst Ah private I came across efficient.computer

Yes two. Nvidia and Positron.

@biancoresearch @johnkonrad @JDVance Let’s go!

Wow! Note this from the Chancellor of Germany, not @JDVance