stolqe

@CRUDEOIL231 Any idea how much of global LNG demand can switch to alternative energy sources like coal instead and how much of the Qatar supply loss can be replaced?

@stolqe Imagine shoulder season ending. Europe’s storage levels are already sitting at rock bottom.

Sure a Strait of Hormuz blockade obviously pushes most energy costs up, but a collapse in Qatari LNG supply is going to send global LNG prices into orbit. That shift in switching economics will drag coal higher right along with it. I saw Chancellor Merz saying "this isn't Europe's war." Sure he's technically right, but Europe is going to be the one left holding the bag for all the damage. The ghosts of 2022 are starting to haunt the place again. You can see the list of victims about to get hit the hardest across the energy mix. Meanwhile this is going to force governments into a total re-evaluation of fundamental energy security, which could actually give clean energy a long-term tailwind in the process. #oott #iran

@TMTLongShort Why do it? It’s a net negative for the US.

😉😉😉 yet…

@KobeissiLetter Bad framing from you. You’re making it seem like they said that all of the LNG contracts are subject to force majeure, which isn’t the case.

BREAKING: Following Iranian strikes, QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on LNG contracts for up to 5 years. Qatar currently produces a massive 20% of global LNG supply.

@WarrenPies x.com/deitaone/statu…

U.S. oil export ban likely...especially once U.S. officials realize that if we export our SPR barrels they are likely to end up in China's SPR. W/o a corresponding product/gasoline export ban, then we run it back to pre-2015 days when domestic crack spreads blew out.

@robin_j_brooks Brent or WTI?

Of course it's possible that oil goes to $200. But that kind of price level basically assumes a return to full shut down for all oil coming out of the Persian Gulf and a very low price elasticity of demand. $200 isn't going to happen and $150 is a stretch. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…

@Caribbean_1985 @LRHCPH @RealChrisJNet @johnkonrad Do total natural gas, not just LNG

@LRHCPH @RealChrisJNet @johnkonrad Ok but now do LNG 😝

Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.

@INArteCarloDoss That's fake

He has gone mad, like legit clinically mad…

@UnintendedCons5 Not sure, pretty sure that's what's being referred to though since the number matches x.com/financialjuice…

@stolqe From where? Canada doesn't have an SPR.

WTF is "other"? Oil apparently. Is this their Venezuela barrels?

@Scouting4Gold @VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher The world may lose more (especially Asian economies like China) but that doesn’t make it great for them. It’s in nobody’s economic interest to maintain a prolonged block of oil/nat gas flows. Also, while it isn’t great for the US, they’re not among the most vulnerable.

@stolqe @VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher The Gulf and the World loses more than they do. The west is financially and economically weak. A few weeks of oil shortages will topple it.

While recognizing Iranian FM may not be speaking for the IRGC, “Welcomes ANY initiative” = No preconditions attached to sitting down The wording is significant. They are clearly talking behind the scenes with the US, and want someone (China?) to help mediate a deal for them.

@Scouting4Gold @VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher If they escalate and keep blocking the strait, they’re likely to lose their exporting ability and possibly even their oil infrastructure. That’s devastating for their economy long-term.

@stolqe @VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher Because they’re winning. And they want a permanent solution. Sanctions and the constant stop/start wars is not good for their economy long term.

@Scouting4Gold @VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher What’s their incentive to continue playing that game? They’ll just continue to get bombed and eventually lose their own ability to export oil

@VictorTheClean3 @LukeGromen @yieldsearcher @yieldsearcher is long equities. If I was Iran, I wouldn’t allow the US Treasury to squirm out of its oil shorts.

@UnintendedCons5 x.com/deitaone/statu…

Iran needs to agree to stop attacking vessels and do it for a some period of time. I really don't see their motivation at this point. Or the US can keep it open via pure decimation of Iranian capability.

@nypost "and their allies" though, I wonder how he defines that

Any country except for US and Israel can pass through Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister says trib.al/wsIONsJ

@KobeissiLetter Source for ”after”?

@fejau_inc @BitcoinPoke @BobEUnlimited Not necessarily

@BitcoinPoke @BobEUnlimited Oil inflation self corrects as people consume less

Real household demand growth was already soft heading into this oil shock. The price hikes to come will set turn it negative.

@sentdefender That last part of what you wrote is false

President Donald Trump has announced "many countries...will be sending war ships" to aid U.S. Navy efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open claiming that 100% of Iran's military capability has been destroyed. France and the United Kingdom have announced naval deployments to the region, but none have acknowledged a mission to support the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

@TMTLongShort My view is that the main stated objective is to get rid of their nuclear capabilities

Not enough weight is being put on the possibility that this ultimately turns into a handoff situation where the U.S. was the tip of the spear but now that the heavy military lift is behind us it’s up to Israel and the Gulf states to decide how much they want to push the throttle on regime change vs risk their water salination and energy production. The U.S. retains energy control loosely but acts indifferent to who is in charge as long as they aren’t blowing up tankers. If Israel or Saudi wants boots on the ground that’s their prerogative. If the IRGC wants to use the strait as a way to put pressure on the GCC and Israel the U.S. immediately mows the lawn and selectively comes in to destroy a whole layer of leadership from the air. This teaches whoever is left that their only option is to dedicate what little of their capacity is left towards negotiating or fighting with the GCC. The U.S. gets to shift 80% of its assets out of theatre if it chooses and places the cost squarely on the people who this now impacts most. If Saudi wants to risk 90m refugees it can escalate regime change further into a scenario where water treatment plants might be destroyed. That’s their call not ours. We care about dictating oil flows to China India and Europe. This wouldn’t be TACO. This would be having a clear objective. With zero fucks given if the Iranian people are free (hope they rise up ofc). The point I’m making is don’t believe the medias framing as to what is the objective. The media is moving goal posts for obvious reasons and will continue to do so. And to be clear this is one of many different possibilities. But it is a very real and acceptable possibility. It’s up to the Iranians to rise up. I sincerely hope they do. It is not our job to be the jailbreaker for all those that are oppressed. And we don’t need to abide by short-dated timelines into midterms. We have control over oil flows and removed the overriding threat. Everything else are details.

@dampedspring Do you like Europe less here with energy prices going up?

Before we have more nonsense about right tail events are not discounted. They are.