Talks_Energy

NHL Conference Finalists from 2016 to 2025 (the last 10 completed playoff years) who did NOT have a single player on their playoff roster that was originally drafted by that same team in the top 5 overall of the NHL Entry Draft. Players acquired via trade or free agency do not count, even if they were top 5 picks elsewhere. Self-drafted top 5 overall picks are the only disqualifier; 2016 San Jose Sharks 2017 Ottawa Senators 2017 Nashville Predators 2017 Anaheim Ducks 2018 Vegas Golden Knights 2019 Boston Bruins 2019 Carolina Hurricanes 2019 San Jose Sharks 2020 New York Islanders 2020 Vegas Golden Knights 2021 New York Islanders 2021 Vegas Golden Knights 2023 Vegas Golden Knights (won the Stanley Cup) 2023 Carolina Hurricanes 2025 Carolina Hurricanes Interesting note….The Vegas Golden Knights appear four times and won a Stanley Cup without ever drafting a top 5 overall pick themselves. The Carolina Hurricanes appear three times.

OK I am panicking now “Where there is at the heart of all these projects, including resources, provincial jurisdiction; where the federal government is catalyzing, helping to make the project happen through a tax or other incentive - regulatory support - and at the core there is a commercial business making a profit, it is fair, right, just, smart for Canadians to have a share directly in those profits.”

Makes no sense at all. • Port is too shallow (11.5m). Standard LNG tankers need 12m+. • Seabed is solid limestone bedrock. You can't just dredge, it requires massive underwater blasting. • Ice 7 months/year means you need specialized Arc7 icebreaking ships. • Only Korean yards build them ($400M+ each) and they are completely booked up until 2028. The marine logistics absolutely kill the CapEx.

No proponent, no submission, no permits, no investment, no engineering, no consultation, no pipeline, no terminal, no LNG trains, no off taker, no supply, no ice strengthened LNG carrier fleet. Respectfully, Manitoba should focus on how to produce more things global customers want. Churchill is sucking up too much oxygen.

@ExnerPirot @VassyKapelos Futureproof from what? Future market pulls or future ideologically inclined Canadian Federal governments?

.@VassyKapelos 🔥 “Is there a world now in which the terms of the MOU need to be rethought at all… in particular where the Pathways project is concerned. Basically it’s a $20 billion project conceived of at a time when there was at least some value attached to the idea of lower carbon intensive barrels of oil. It is difficult to find any evidence right now of any buyer that is hungry for that. It feels like your government is hanging on to something that might hold us back from becoming what you promised us to become, which is an energy superpower, in order to satisfy progressives within the party. Is that really in the best interests of the Canadian economy and do you need to rethink the terms of the MOU?”

Seeing some confusion about the recent Presidential Permit for Enbridge at the ND/Manitoba border. To be clear: these are NOT new builds. It’s purely an administrative update allowing existing infrastructure to keep operating. The assets in question are existing Enbridge Mainlines: • Line 1 (18") • Line 2B (26") • Line 3 (34") Zero new construction. Hope this helps clear that up

Donald Trump just authorized a Canadian pipeline. Presidential Permit: Authorizing Enbridge Energy, Limited Partnership to Operate and Maintain Three Existing Pipeline Facilities at Pembina County, North Dakota, at the International Boundary whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

Kinda late now…perhaps offer complementary booster seats and #ozempic ?

@WestJet, wtf is this!?!? I’m 5’10 and my knees are jammed into the seating front of me! My wife is 5’3.5….who designed this seating? Just horrible…. #nolegroom

What I heard on both the ENB and TRP conference calls is the path for growth lays within in-corridor brownfield projects in the US. Low risk, higher returns. Given these are dividend paying utilities, with high debt and high dividebt payouts, investors (pension funds, CPP, retirees), this is a very predictable and reasonable path for them. Canada pension plan alone owns around $600 million of Enbridge stock and a billion of TC energy. Institutional ownership is around 55% and 80% respectively. As a Canadian who doesn’t directly own any shares in these companies, I still have a vested interest in their stability and predictable slow growth and payouts, both for when I retire (hopefully one day!) and my parents who are retired and depend on CPP. Sorry for the long post!

@ExnerPirot So Enbridge is stating quite clearly that unless taxpayers take the risks financially, they don’t want to play in our sandbox. But they’ll happily take massive profits if taxpayers subsidize their investment and de-risk the pipeline. That’s not a viable option.

Since everyone is being predictably stupid about the comments reported by Enbridge CEO on regulatory risk, and twisting them to be about hating Liberals or Alberta separatists or whatever, here’s the transcript of what he said

@ListerRod @ExnerPirot Twinning the existing route is not feasable unfortunately.

@ExnerPirot Enbridge's debt is over 100B, they're not going to take on another 20-30b for a pipeline with little evidence that prices will go much above what it has done since 2022. Investors would freak over the potential buyback and dividend loss. Best bet is twin TMX which is cheaper.

It’s not how it’s developed, it’s what’s done with the royalty and tax revenues by the government. Unfortunately, we do not live in a country where any accountability is placed on our politicians on exactly what they do with those dollars. In the recent era, Voters chose not to vote for fiscally responsible savers. They vote for redistributionists

@talks_energy @brianlilley @CPC_HQ Agreed. If Canada developed its oil resources like Norway, we would be better off.

Prime Minister Mark Carney says removing Maduro is welcome news, adds that Canada's oil sector will still be competitive when Venezuelan oil comes online. He will be blasted for saying removing Maduro is welcome. What do you think?

Re; new crude line to the Bc coast…Let’s spitball landed costs well north of $60 per barrel. The project is likely uneconomic due to a "negative arbitrage" scenario where the cost to transport the barrel erodes the discount Asian refiners require to buy heavy Canadian crude. Furthermore, the capital cost and Canadian regulatory barriers make private investment virtually impossible.

Canadian Oil Pipeline Gets Political Boost from Trump’s Venezuela Shock About 64% of the oil shipped through Transmountain last year was destined for China. “This is likely to be an accelerant for Canada to diversify away from the US when it comes to sourcing energy demand.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@Oakvillejaysfan @brianlilley @CPC_HQ And then there was that time when the Federal Gov’t went completely hostile to the industry, causing massive capital flight. Going to be a tough sell to entice that capital back. IRR is so much better Stateside.

@talks_energy @brianlilley True, but Mulroney dismantled the NEP. @CPC_HQ policies would be better for the Canadian oil industry.

@WestJet @queenmare1 How can I ensure when booking @WestJet , I don’t end up in one of those torture chairs? Is it business class or this as my only options now?

the video shows one of our newly reconfigured aircraft. To keep travel affordable, these planes now fit an extra row with seat pitches from 28–38 inches, comparable to other North American airlines. We’re listening to guest feedback on comfort while keeping safety our top priority.

Thinking I won’t be flying @WestJet any time soon. I couldn’t travel 5 minutes like this. Profit is flying these planes.

@Oakvillejaysfan @brianlilley Well, not since Trudeau Snr. essentially did through the NEP that is...

Canada is low risk because it has not nationalized any private oil producers. Carbon capture may help reduce carbon emissions, but it does add to the production cost of oil. It will take at least 5 years for Venezuela to produce enough extra oil to compete with Canada. However, Canada should still be focused on building a pipeline to Eastern Canada & the West Coast.

Courtesy of @GeminiApp : Executive Assessment: The Venezuelan Restoration Timeline and Canadian Structural Risk Current Baseline: ~900,000 bpd (functional but degraded). The Catalyst: President Trump’s declaration of direct US operational control and the deployment of US majors (Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips). The Reality: We are not flipping a switch; we are resurrecting a corpse. The physical infrastructure of PDVSA has been cannibalized for scrap and suffered a decade of zero maintenance. "Iron rusts," and Venezuela’s upgraders are corroded, its power grid is shattered, and its intellectual capital has fled. Here is the realistic, unvarnished forecast for production recovery under a US-led accelerated reconstruction regime and the resulting displacement threat to Canadian energy. Target 1: Restoration to 2.0 Million bpd Forecast Duration: 30 to 42 Months (2.5 to 3.5 Years) Success Probability: High This phase is about rehabilitation and fixing what is already there. Months 1 to 6 (The Triage): Security and Audit: US military secures the Orinoco Belt and critical export terminals (Jose). The Majors send in "SWAT teams" of engineers to audit the decay. Diluent Flood: Immediate massive imports of US light naphtha and condensate. Venezuela’s extra heavy crude turns to asphalt without it. We can boost production by ~200k bpd almost overnight simply by having consistent diluent supply. Power Stabilization: The oil fields run on electricity and the national grid is unreliable. To bypass the years long backlog for new GE turbines caused by AI data center demand, the Majors will deploy "mercenary power" fleets immediately. Expect massive utilization of rental mobile turbines from Aggreko and APR Energy, followed by diverted Solar Turbines intended for other regions. Months 7 to 24 (The Heavy Lift): Upgrader Repair: The four massive upgraders at Jose (Petrocedeño, Petromonagas, etc.) are operating at partial capacity or are offline. These act as the "kidneys" of the system. Refurbishing these pressure vessels and cokers takes 18 months minimum. Workovers: Thousands of wells are shut in. Rigs from players like Precision Drilling will be deployed to perform "workovers" (clearing sand, replacing pumps) rather than drilling new wells. This is the fastest way to add volume. Months 25 to 42 (The Ramp and The Canadian Displacement): By Year 3, the rehabilitated infrastructure comes online and production crosses the 2.0 MMbpd threshold. The Canadian Impact: This is the critical danger zone for Canada. At 2.0 MMbpd, Venezuelan heavy oil begins to structurally displace Canadian heavy oil in the US Gulf Coast (PADD 3). Venezuelan barrels ship for ~$3/bbl versus ~$12 to $15/bbl for Canadian pipe volumes. This logistics advantage effectively evicts Canadian barrels from the Gulf, forcing a retreat to the Midwest or a pivot to Asia. The Bottom Line: With the US military securing the assets and US Majors running operations, 2 million bpd is inevitable by late 2028. This restoration effectively closes the US Gulf Coast to Canadian growth.

My two cents on the impact of Venezuela for the Canadian oil sector: -Mildly bullish in the short term as Venezuela has shut in heavy oil production amidst the chaos -Capital is cowardly and shy and I don’t think Venezuela will be a particularly attractive destination for a while. It has experienced poor governance and corruption for a long time, has a history of nationalizing industry, and there will be a large socialist faction even more radicalized against the USA. I think Brazil, Guyana and GoM are still more important competitors for capital -Another reason why we should build a NW BC pipeline to Asian markets in the medium term -Most Canadian oil goes to the Midwest, not the Gulf, although a faster than expected Venezuelan recovery would be bad for the WCS differential

Approximately 70-75% of Canadian heavy oil exports flow to the US Midwest (Chicago, Minnesota, Ohio). This market is physically locked in by pipelines (Enbridge Mainline) and cannot be economically served by Venezuelan tankers. This is Canada's "Moat." The battleground is the US Gulf Coast, where Canada currently sends ~600,000–800,000 barrels per day (bpd) to compete with waterborne imports.

Its going to happen folks. I've been down there, the potential is massive. This is a game changer for US energy security as it eventually replaces Cdn heavy oil, all of it.

Approximately 70-75% of Canadian heavy oil exports flow to the US Midwest (Chicago, Minnesota, Ohio). This market is physically locked in by pipelines (Enbridge Mainline) and cannot be economically served by Venezuelan tankers. This is Canada's "Moat." The battleground is the US Gulf Coast, where Canada currently sends ~600,000–800,000 barrels per day (bpd) to compete with waterborne imports.

Turns out this statement wasn’t quite as ignorant as we all thought…it was just a year ahead of its time:

On this day in NHL history, the Florida Panthers made one of the boldest moves at the 2003 NHL Entry Draft by trying to select Alex Ovechkin a full year before he was actually eligible. Ovechkin was born just two days after the league’s cutoff date, but Panthers GM Rick Dudley argued that if you counted leap years, Ovechkin would have qualified. The Panthers tried to draft him several times in different rounds, but each attempt was rejected by the NHL, and they were warned they could lose their pick if they kept trying. It was a long shot that didn’t work out, but it remains one of the most interesting “what if” moments in hockey history. Ovechkin was drafted first overall by Washington the next year and went on to become one of the greatest goal scorers ever.

@Tablesalt13 Blue Grits’

🚨NEW CARNEY SETS THE STAGE FOR A CONSERVATIVE-LIBERAL INFORMAL COALITION PROGRESSIVE VOTERS ARE GETTING RED-WEDDING'D 🗡️🗡️🗡️

Watching the @NHL playoffs - Winnipeg @NHLJets game. I’m getting all messed up because the crowd still wears the white jerseys and waves white towels but the home jerseys are the dark blue and the @StLouisBlues road jerseys are white so it makes it look like they are the home team 🤷🏻‍♂️