AF

Inflation is what they wanted after decades of over savings. Japan is still the top 1-2 net external creditor in the world. The BoJ ran a carry trade on behalf of citizens with the coupons being extremely generous pension and healthcare while begging them to lever up on zero rate mortgages. They didn’t, now they are paying the price (of depreciated savings). But the BoJ has literally been begging and throwing money at them since 1997 to lever up. It will be painful - but they will be fine. Can’t say they didn’t get a long heads up.

@passedpawn Yup but at the risk of inflation , negative real wages.

The Tokyo Trilemma is my note from July where I outlined how the BOJ has to choose which market will die: Nikkei, JGBs or Yen. They cannot save all 3. They have chosen to let the bond market die. Yen is also at risk. open.substack.com/pub/dannydayan…

@stevehou @rohanpaul_ai So end of the day - it REALLY is about going to the target schools. So much for the fake equality distributions.

This is genuinely pretty incredible. Tshinghua and Peking U are the only foreign universities on this list. Source: @rohanpaul_ai

@kirishathegreat @CacheThatCheque Same goes for the other side, especially when it comes to verbal pronunciations and tongue benders for Asian speakers. It is what it is.

@tangpingnomics @CacheThatCheque For some it’s difficult, esp. kanji. Same can apply to Jp learners who study English for decades&still unable to converse in v.basic level.For ppl of alphabet based countries kanji present serious difficulties. You can speak several European languages but still struggle with Jp.

“I don’t need the JLPT, I speak Japanese” POV: the last thing you see after you fail the JLPT and your permanent residency application is denied

@kirishathegreat @CacheThatCheque Why is it such a big deal for english speakers to learn another language, especially if you are going to apply to be a *permanent* resident? Just take the darn test - we all did it coming from the 'other' side before.

@CacheThatCheque Wonder why they didn’t seem to care much ab. ppl’s language skills even 10yrs ago but sprung to action now when with advancing tech everything can be translated fast just by using smartphones. Why worry now?

@shanaka86 Credit agreements are only truly bounded by their enforcement capabilities. Rest of it is bunk.

China just declared war. Not with missiles. With lawyers. “Chinese interest in Venezuela will be protected by law.” Read that again. Beijing didn’t threaten military action. They announced something far more dangerous to American power: They’re going to make regime change uninsurable. Here’s what 99% of analysts are missing: This isn’t about $19 billion in Venezuelan loans. This is about $1.3 TRILLION in Belt and Road debt across 150 countries. Every dollar China has lent to Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Pacific—all of it is secured by the same legal fiction: that sovereign leaders can sign contracts that successor governments must honor. The US just kidnapped a sitting president from his bedroom and flew him to Manhattan. If that precedent stands, every Belt and Road loan is worthless paper. Every port deal. Every railway. Every power plant. Gone. China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t issue a protest. They issued a statement of existential necessity. They WILL pursue international arbitration. They WILL invoke bilateral investment treaties. They WILL take this to every court from The Hague to Singapore. They WILL make the legal cost of American regime change so catastrophic that the next president thinks twice. Not for Maduro. For the entire architecture of Chinese overseas lending. Trump told Fox: “There won’t be a problem with Xi.” Xi just answered: There will be 10,000 lawyers. Watch the next 90 days. If China successfully enforces a single contract claim against a post-Maduro government—just one—they’ve established that American regime change doesn’t void Chinese debt. That’s not a victory for Venezuela. That’s a restructuring of global power. The 21st century won’t be decided by aircraft carriers. It will be decided by who writes the contracts. And who can enforce them after the coup.

Speed & scoring are gaining in every professional sport over punishing physicality, the NBA being a big example. If hockey wants to grow internationally it has no choice but to follow at 99% of kids won't make it to the Majors / overseas pro / NHL level, and most parents don't want to blowing obscene amounts of money on a sport activity just so their kids get CTE from some goon with an axe to grind. There's boxing and MMA for ultra violent spectator entertainment already, hockey needs to find it's (international) growth ways forward.

I’m no ‘western hockey scout’, but Canada used to win the gold every year when they’d have entire shifts where all they did was hit everything that moved. Now we have a bunch first round pussies who stand around in their own end, flip pucks in the air, and get totally lost every second shift.

@ProfHall1955 Hosing market is stabilizing ? On what grounds sir ?

Pettis ranks amongst many Amrican commentators who have been predicting China's downfall for years. This year it gew 5% with inflation under 1.0%. Pettis' main issue, domestic demand, is steadily rising, boosted by expanding public sector work such as elderly care. The housing market is stabilising. He plays down the world-class infrastructure, short supply chains, integrated manufacturing ecosystem, continuing innovation etc. Basically he's misapplying Minsky's stability-instability thesis by underestimating what seems to be highly productive dynamic outcomes of its domestic debt-financing. Pettis has the ear of some UK Labour policy wonks, academics and broadcasters. Maybe time to go a bit deaf. x.com/i/status/19993…

Volatility is compressing as crypto grows up. BTC DVOL has stayed below 100 since 2022, even as BTC hit new ATHs. Crypto options are still only ~1 to 3% of futures volume. Equities reached parity years ago. More from Sidrah Fariq and Augustine Fan 👇 news.bitcoin.com/options-vs-fut…

How did you even make it to two adults with kids entering college if you couldn’t survive the “participation” phase he outlined where your kids NEEDS certain extra curricular and academic prep to make it to college in the first place. DINKs are basically a form of non-participation (by choice) so you are supporting his point here. One can argue about the expense line items all they want but it doesn’t change the main picture - the income economic model is totally broken.

I’m genuinely bothered by this “$140k national poverty line” thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99’s simple arithmetic of survival is $32,773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare, it’s not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers. What this article spells out isn’t really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the “Baumol disease”: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare, education, and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and mass produced food fall sharply! Yes, the “participation ticket” to middle class life (raising kids, staying healthy, getting to work) is now dominated by stagnant-sector services whose relative costs have skyrocketed. But two young adults and two kids getting by on $140k total income isn’t “poverty”. In all likelihood, on $140k you’d have air-conditioning, smartphones, decent cars, medical insurance through work, and access to decent cheap clothes, appliances, and furniture. Ofc this is really a basic needs budget for two young adults and two babies. Now what about two older adults and two college entering kids? Or two adults living in rough neighborhoods and bad public schools and wanting better private school education for their two school age kids? OTOH, if you are DINK (double income no kids), which indeed increasingly many are, you are even modestly comfortable and able to afford some vacation and regular eating out. That’s not “poverty” by any typical definition. So the core problem that Mike Green spelled out in his now viral article really isn’t “poverty” but a case of socioeconomic imbalance as productivity stagnant services comprise an ever larger share of modern life and we lack the institutions to service it. That’s what led to the demand for undocumented immigration and cheap labor, which in turn became the biggest rallying cry for populism backlash. People want cheaper labor intensive services, but don’t want cheaper labor. So we must be willing to accept 1) more socialized less efficient solutions; 2) using less of such services; 3) paying more for such services by consuming less elsewhere. Regardless, redefining the national poverty line and providing typical poverty assistance would be exactly the wrong and futile way to address it as it fundamentally misdiagnoses the core problem. I don’t mean to by any means dismiss the importance of the issue. Clearly it resonated widely for a reason: it’s a genuine problem! But the correct diagnosis is a first step towards a real cure!

@Hason_Greene @JaredSleeper on the contrary, the more security you already have, the more you pursue status as there's not much else you don't have and not much to fear.

@JaredSleeper Do you not think the pursuit of status is merely a proxy for security? status, attention, wealth, power, rank, etc all proxies for security

The arguments that AI will lead to leisure ignore the underlying factor behind Keynes' paradox of leisure time (i.e., his famously flawed prediction of a 15-hour workweek). People are competing for status, not absolute wealth/security. If AI increases the exponentiality of status difference (when ranked ordinally), it will lead to more effort expended towards status. So far, that seems to be case, which is why 9-9-6 is in vogue. There is a very real belief/sense that this is a special time to be ascending in status, and that's logical considering the magnitude of change afoot. It also seems to have been the trend across time- more technology = more leverage = more benefits to be at the top = more effort expended. It will be fascinating if AI flattens that curve somehow (perhaps sycophantic AI can make everyone feel famous?), but for now, it seems to be a continuation of the longer-term trend.

@CyphrGM @donalt It's actually quote common. Investors can demand dilution protection but they'll rarely get it. There are no guarantees in life.

@donalt Ok, but I guarantee you that they would have had a clause stating that any future raise under that valuation would trigger a discount or higher allocation. There isn't a chance in hell that they screw their early investors like you're suggesting.

The ICO is gonna be below the last VC raise that was done ages ago and is gonna be immediately available while they have to hold for years That's funny, people are upset about this but if anything aren't the VCs from the last raise the ones that should be complaining? I like it

@KadyMuhammad1 @1legflamingo @Jacobtheclipper that's what I meant as well, Orlando Shaq was much closer to Hakeem than his own Lakers self. He was ridiculously fast, agile, and slim for his size.

@1legflamingo @tangpingnomics @Jacobtheclipper Point tho is that Hakeem and Shaq were entirely different players. Shaq played a power game with his size and strength, Hakeem was speed and agility.

I have been saying for YEARS if a guy develops a post game in this era they will FEAST! Sengun makes Wemby look like a JV high school player, now imagine Shaq or Hakeem against these softies 😂🤣

@pretentiouswhat It’s a place Iike another. Lots of pluses, and also lots of minuses. It’s not exactly utopia but it’s not unpleasant to live in either. Enough with the hyperbole. It has a mere 0.1% registered foreign population for a reason.

It's generally good to push back against ignorant narratives about China, no matter who shares them. This sometimes also includes those promoted by disapora Chinese with everything to gain by establishing themselves as gatekeepers of discourse.

@1legflamingo @Jacobtheclipper Check out Orlando Shaq. He would fit in more than fine.

@Jacobtheclipper Hakeem yes, but Shaq would be kinda liability in the perimeter defense with every single player hitting those 3 now. Hakeem more versatile he could play in any era Shaq would destroy in the paint, thats sure

@bennpeifert Dude... in sofware lingo it literally means 'commiting code to the smart contract' ie. finalizing the protocol as you can't make changes afterwards. The forward part just means he's pushing code ahead of the other devs. You don't like crypto, we get it. But this is embarrassing.

Anyone who refers to their ceo's work travel as "forward deployment" should be sent to a Siberian zinc mine

@arthur0x @adriannewman21 @OpenEden_X So what’s the point of the blockchain then. Just offload the stable and buy a Tbill on IB or Pimco if size.

@adriannewman21 @OpenEden_X The backing asset is offchain so any hack can be reversed and doesnt matte4

There are only very few DeFi products that I am willing to entrust the significant majority of my capital into and one of them is $USDO by @OpenEden_X . U.S. T- bills backed stablecoins rated by Moody and BNY Mellon as fund manager and custodian. An extremely underrated project building RWA and yield bearing dollar the right way since the beginning.

@EWmarkets @brandonjcarl Good luck with that one.

@tangpingnomics @brandonjcarl It just means housing prices will go up 15% due to higher demand from lower monthly payments.

A 50-Year Mortgage saves you $300 per month on a $1 million loan. In return, you'd pay 2.5 million in interest instead of 1.2 million. 30-Year @ 6.25% = 6,157/mo 50-Year @ 6.75% = 5,286/mo

@DeFi_Cheetah @masongoldsmith Why is that? Even at '70%' dominance the TAM is so substantially larger (and more prepared) for the rest of the world combined so it's a rational decision for most principals and sponsors. Just look at DATs/ETFs/Listed Derivatives developments

@masongoldsmith Betting on the 99.5% USD stablecoins dominance to continue anytime soon is one of the silliest take in my opinion

With my utmost respect, I do think the thesis of continuing dominance of USD stablecoins misses some significant perspectives. Traditional Payment Service Providers (PSPs) who don’t touch payment corridors of the US will not convert their idle capital to USD as a matter of treasury management. If they eventually adopt stablecoin payment solutions, they are the key drivers of local-currency stablecoins. More detailed thoughts: 1. Regulatory Support and Compliance in Non-US Jurisdictions Foreign regulators are actively fostering non-USD stablecoins to create localized digital assets that align with regional laws. Payment itself not just about payment itself, but also the alignment with local government’s agenda. A case in point is Hong Kong: after the 1st Aug, it’s generally illegal for anyone, including the PSPs to offer unlicensed stablecoins in the local jurisdiction, including $USDT and $USDC, to the public without proper authorization, where “offerings” has a broad interpretation to include ‘promoting’, ‘facilitating’ or ‘eliciting’. I expect the upcoming regulatory clarity in other local jurisdictions will follow this trend, in the interest of protecting the monetary sovereignty. Please note that >40% of total payment volume in the globe has to do with the APAC region and it’s obvious that after the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 the Asian governments are in general very sensitive to the adoption of USD stablecoins, so that PSPs operating in these regions will dare not to adopt stablecoin solutions in order to avoid the risk of sabotaging the local banking relationships by violating the government’s agenda. 2. Efficiency in Cross-Border Payments and Trade Non-USD stablecoins enable cheaper, faster international transactions without the need for USD conversions (a common issue for all stablecoin sandwich model right now), cutting redundant FX fees. For trade corridors outside the US, such as Europe-Asia Asia-African payments, where traditional systems impose high costs. Surveys indicate that cost savings (up to 52% reduction in transaction fees) and speed (45% cite faster cross-border capabilities) are top drivers for stablecoin adoption overall, with non-USD variants amplifying these benefits in regional contexts. 24/7 liquidity and real-time settlement further support their use in global supply chains. Indeed, technological leapfrogging gives a big hint that stablecoin adoption in the US may not be as high as in emerging markets. China was once settling transactions in cash and via bank transfer, with low adoption of credit card payments. Then e-payment becomes the most popular option for Chinese citizens, sidestepping credit cards and the e-payment adoption rate outpacing the US by orders of magnitude. Similarly, regions that have the lower adoption of e-payment solutions tend to have a higher chance to have the highest adoption of stablecoins. In my opinion, content in CT in relation to stablecoin payment is so US-centric that it creates an echo chamber that makes most people miss the domestic context of different regions. We have to bear in mind that payment industry is a very localized business: @Wise as one of the leading global remittance companies only has <1% of the total payment volume of the whole world.

The current TradFi-infused crypto ecosystem means that you have given all the gatekeeping power back to the US banking cartel as the pre-cursor to a digital SWIFT, so unless you never off-ramp you are heading back to US rails regardless. By definition that means most frameworks will operate under US legislative leadership (ie. Genius) just as how ETFs/DATs are following off US regulated frameworks, and then simply tuned for local adherence. You must still be US compliant if you have a fiat end-point at some part of that journey. HK is still waiting for its 1st regulated stable issuer (non sandbox) and PBoC has recently put a stop to the large tech conglomerates looking to be a HK stablecoin applicant, so policy is going backwards I'm afraid. Like it or not the (US) TradFi takeover in crypto has been so successful that the institutionalisation of crypto has turned out to be a huge coup for them.

@brandonjcarl What's the difference between a 30y vs 50y and a 10y and a 30y? Why not just go the shortest if net terminal interest payment was all one is concerned about? Affordability is the biggest issue so unless you want prices to collapse or rates to go back to zero, levers are limited.