Thiago Jacinto

@johnarnold How often did you rebalance it in order to keep 50/50 Tech/energy?

I think I finally solved the stock market.

@KobeissiLetter What does explain GBP +8% up against the USD ytd? Is the US in a worst situation?

Lastly, the Bank of England had its hands tied as bankruptcies hit 2008 levels in 2024. The UK had to pick between persistent inflation or a bankruptcy crisis. All while deficit spending keeps getting worse. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

The UK's bond market is collapsing: Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK rose to 5.64%, its highest level since 1998. Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES higher than they were at the 2020 low, just 5 years ago. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

@TripleNetInvest Brazilian stocks

What is a stock or asset you think will significantly outperform the S&P 500 over the next 4-5 years. Lets hear it.

@KobeissiLetter As the conversions start to take place by 2027-2028, won’t Saylor be diluted and end up loosing voting power?

Also, let's not forget that Michael Saylor himself currently holds 46.8% of the voting power. Therefore, it is almost impossible to pass a shareholder vote without Michael Saylor. In the case of a "fundamental change" in the company, Saylor could easily vote against it.

The MicroStrategy liquidation: As MicroStrategy, $MSTR, falls over -55%, many are asking about "forced liquidation." The company now holds $44 BILLION worth of Bitcoin, could they be forced to sell it? Is liquidation even possible? Let us explain. (a thread)

@JavierBlas Has the US been building a strategic reserve? It seems too obvious, considering that there is enough supply, it’s cheap and strategic from a geopolitical standpoint.

If that’s the source Trump’s advisers used to convince Trump of Ukraine’s rare-earth riches, it would be depressing — global politics based on copy-and-paste from conspiracy theory blogs morphed into a NATO-affiliated document. It would suit the Kafkaesque year of 2025 well 🧵12/12

COLUMN: What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn’t have is rare earths. Surprisingly, many people — not least, US President Trump — seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. It’s a folly. [FREE TO READ] @Opinion #Ukraine 🧵1/12 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@KobeissiLetter who is buying from them?

Asset managers are reducing their exposure to stocks: The NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 65 last week, the lowest since the August 5th market collapse. This index represents average exposure to US equity markets reported by National Association of Active Investment Managers members. This also marks its third consecutive weekly decline, marking the largest drop since April 2024. As the S&P 500 rebounds back above 6,000, we are watching to see if this index follows. Institutional investors are becoming more cautious in 2025.

There is no other outcome but default. Either it will come thorugh inflation (debt monetization) or the treasury failing to honor some of its debt. And markets participants have already loosen faith in the USD, that's why we are seeing risk assets (equities, bitcoin, etc) going through the roof even in a scenario that rate was increased from 0 to 5%.

The USA's national debt is now $35,000,000,000,000 What are the REAL WORLD implications of that? What does it mean for the future? It's obviously bad, but I can't wrap my head around such an enormous number.

@MatInvest1 + o ganho de produtividade ao longo do tempo!

“Terra agrícola rende pouco, só 3% ao ano” Ok, mas não se esqueça que o o principal (a terra) acompanha o dólar e o preço da commodity que ela produz. Ou seja, Terra é um título de “Chicago + 3%”

@aledelara_ @elmerfla1 Qual a diferença (usd/ton) no valor do frete do Golfo -> China vs Brasil (Santos/Paranaguá) -> China?

@elmerfla1 Não está! Estamos U$ 9,00 mais baratos que os norte-americanos no FOB

Dólar acima de R$ 5,40 deveria ajudar no farm selling mas, graças ao governo, a China voltou a comprar #soja nos EUA e já realizou as maiores compras, em 4 dias, desde 2019!

@StaLuziaEsteio @diegoaoviedoc Uso de fertilizantes no MS parece consideravelmente menor que no MT, é essa a realidade mesmo? solos mais argilosos do MS vs mais arenosos no MT que explica isso?

@diegoaoviedoc A fonte é a AprosojaMS

Argentina mais competitiva na soja? Não, é resultados da sub-utilização dos insumos agrícolas porque a cada 100 pesos recebidos pelo produtor, >66% fica com o Estado Argentino. O governo do Luladrão quer seguir o mesmo caminho. #Agro never stops #OAgroNãoPara #Brasil🇧🇷

@StaLuziaEsteio qual a diferença na qtde de água que cada um recebeu? obg

Mesmo material genético, irrigado e sequeiro. #Agro never stops #OAgroNãoPara #Brasil🇧🇷

Infelizmente ficamos a mercê de países desenvolvidos, que com o objetivo exclusivamente de defenderem suas atividades agrícolas e evitar competição, financiam ONGs para impedir o desenvolvimento/expansão da ativdade agrícola no Brasil com o discurso de "proteção ao meio ambiente". A Amazonia, com terras ultra-fertéis e um regime de chuva espetacular para a agricultura, não pode produzir em 80% da sua área - enquanto isso, entre 700-800 milhões de pessoas (10% da população global) vivem na miséria sem mal ter o que comer.

Nós temos um Código Florestal ou um confisco de terras? #CódigoFlorestal #Agro #sustentabilidade

@cb_doge What about overseas? Writing from Brazil

𝕏 has secured the Money Transmitter License across 20 states now. Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia & Wyoming.

@EduardoVanin4 em qual região vc viu o basis melhorar? Na minha região (sul do MS), ontem o basis piorou R$ 1.50 por saca.

Ysdy marked the best day for soybean prices this year for the export parity in Brazil, with a 4.10 BRL per sack increase (38 c/b), driven by a rally of CBOT and FOB premiums. The basis at destination also saw higher levels during the afternoon, following the bounce of the Fob levels. Ystdy afternoon, trades were reported in the CFR at even and +3sh for March, a bounce of 8 cents. The chart shows the flat price (line) as of export parity and daily variation (columns). The farmer selling... go.agrinvest.agr.br/noticias/detai…

Itaquiraí-MS, 29/12/2023 - expectativa de produtividade é de 70 a 90 sacas por hectare

Itaquiraí-MS, 29/12/2023 - soja que será colhida até 15/jan

Abaixo o histórico desde 1999 do Equity Risk Premium (ERP) do S&P500, a formula é: (Expectativa de Lucro dos próximos 12 meses / S&P500 * 100) - yield do treasury de 10 anos. S&P500: 4698 Expectativa de Lucro 12M: 234 Yield 10yr: 3,85% Hoje o ERP está +113 bps, historicamente bastante baixo. Porém, exageros acontecem de tempos em tempos, como aconteceu no final de 1999, quando o ERP atingiu -246 bps. A titulo de curiosidade, para o S&P500 hoje ficar tão caro como ele ficou no final de 1999, o índice teria que atingir 17100 pontos, assumindo a mesma expectativa de lucro e yield de 10yr que temos hoje. Não é uma opinião, apenas um exercício para mostrar que já ocorreu exageros muito maiores no passado.

@brazilaginfo @StaLuziaEsteio lower than all aptions above

What is going to be the brazilian crop production by the end of March?

De acordo com matéria do Financial Times ( ft.com/content/9c7931… ), pesquisas de confiança do consumidor americano tem mostrado que a percepção sobre a economia é muito influenciada pela afiliação política do cidadão que está respondendo. Em governos democratas, os democratas ficam otimistas e republicanos pessimistas, e vice-versa. Na França, Reino Unido e Alemanha isso não acontece. Gostaria de saber como é no Brasil.