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【#BTC 四年周期系列更新📊】当前比特币中位数 MVRV 弹至 1.259
CryptoChan@0xCryptoChan
【#BTC 四年周期总刻系列（34）】 22年6月币价暴跌至 17.6k，该指标最低跌至 1.0 26年2月币价暴跌至 60k，该指标最低跌至 1.0 22年8月随着币价超跌反弹，该指标最高达到 1.26 当前随着币价超跌反弹，该指标最高达到 1.23 ┌── 🐼 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | 指标详情 ──┐ 图中黑线为比特币价格；橙线指标为比特币中位数 MVRV 比特币中位数 MVRV (Median MVRV) = 当前比特币市场价格 ÷ 比特币中位数实现价格 比特币中位数实现价格：是比特币供应量中，所有代币最后一次链上移动时的价格的中位数（一半比特币高于此价格移动；一半比特币低于此价格移动）。不同于平均值，它取中间值，能更好地代表所有投资者购币成本的中位数（当前中位数实现价格为 $64,144） Median MVRV 相比 标准MVRV 更能捕捉散户或中型持有者的视角，因为中位数忽略了极端大/小值
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The Microstrategy bears are missing the bigger picture.
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90 dias e contando.
Estamos na possível mais longa Bull Trap do Bitcoin da História.
Completando minha análise de 3 dias atrás, o Bitcoin em TODAS as Bull Traps anteriores (2014, 2018 e 2022) rompeu a média móvel diária de 100 dias e quando bateu na média móvel diária de 200 dias fez a trap e voltou a cair.
Neste momento o Bitcoin já rompeu a MA100 que está em $72K e está quase tocando a MA200 que está em $83K.
Imagem anexa do @CryptoBullet1.
Isso nunca falhou. 😬
Dessa vez vai ser diferente???
Marcelo Pravatta@PravattaMarcelo
Estamos na alta mais prolongada do Bitcoin de todos os Bear Markets (considerando 2014, 2018, 2022 e 2026). Estou considerando pequenos períodos, também chamados de rallies de bear market, em que o BTC segue subindo fazendo topos mais altos e fundos mais altos até fazer uma trap e voltar a cair forte voltando a fazer novos fundos. Abaixo os rallies de bear market mais longos: 2014 -> Abril a Junho - 57 dias 2018 - > Fevereiro a Março - 30 dias 2022 - > Janeiro a Março - 66 dias 2026 - > Favereiro a Maio - 87 dias...e contando... Este ciclo realmente parece estar um pouco diferente. 😅 Apesar dessa recuperação recente, a volatilidade implícita (DVOL) caiu no período e está atualmente abaixo de 40. O BTC não costuma ficar muito tempo com DVOL abaixo de 40. A volatilidade do Bitcoin sobe com altas explosivas mas até agora nada, reforçando que essa pode ser mais uma bull trap. Maio pode ser o mês decisivo para fortes movimentos. Ou será que o Bitcoin ainda pode romper forte para cima e retomar a alta seguindo o S&P500 que está voando? De qualquer maneira é bom ficar de olho no DVOL. Ele sempre começa a subir quando começam movimentos fortes, tanto para cima quanto para baixo. *Anexos os gráficos na ordem (2014, 2018, 2022 e 2026).
Português
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Bitcoin
It worked in 2022.
It will work in 2026.
Same gamblers, FUDsters and investors at play. Different year.
Bull market 2026 - 2028.
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BITCOIN IN 2036: THE FLOOR IS THE STORY
Bitcoin’s floor is compounding.
Today:
BTC: $80,936
Power-law trend: ~$130K
Current p10 floor: ~$61K
2036 model output:
p10 floor: $783K
Median: $1.70M
p90 upside: $4.44M
From today’s price:
Floor case: 9.7x
Median case: 21.0x
Upside case: 54.8x
p10: +25% CAGR
Median: +36% CAGR
p90: +49% CAGR
The key insight:
Bitcoin does not need a huge upside forecast for the long-term math to be extraordinary.
Even the conservative band compounds hard.
The rising floor is the signal.
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MARK MOSS: "I’m predicting $1 million in 2030, $14 million in 2040, and $45 million in 2050 for one #Bitcoin."
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$400,000 Bitcoin by December 2026. Who's ready to have a good Christmas?
Gert van Lagen@GertvanLagen
#Bitcoin 2018-2026 Bull Market Blow-off targets ~$400k+
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The supercycle/mid-cycle correction theory I've been talking about for well over 2 years is beginning to materialize.
The business cycle is showing signs of getting ready to start its expansion phase.
We had a very healthy, fast 50% mid-cycle correction/capitulation.
We had a year of long-term holders taking healthy profits above $100,000.
We are above the bull market support band and short-term holder cost basis, which are the key TA and on-chain bear/bull market pivot points.
I could go on and on.
All signs point to a supercycle/second major peak coming in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028.
Plan C@TheRealPlanC
Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.
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In 2033… you’ll be able to buy 12 years of labor from a human for 1 Bitcoin.
Terence Michael@ProofOfMoney
How many hours of your work does it take to acquire 1.0 Bitcoin? For the average American worker: 2015: 1 day of work. 2016: 2 days of work 2017: 2 weeks of work. 2025: 1 full year of work. * 2033: Over 12 years!!! (Bitcoin at $1 million)
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$BTC is pushing straight into the $82K–$85K strong rejection zone right now.
This is a liquidity trap → relief rally before the drop, $BTC will dump back to $46,000 in just a few weeks.
Save this chart and compare in a few weeks.
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Some time people want to use other form of value instead of USD to show the power law will not hold.
Well it still works when expressed in labor hours (even if adjusted for inflation).
Terence Michael@ProofOfMoney
How many hours of your work does it take to acquire 1.0 Bitcoin? For the average American worker: 2015: 1 day of work. 2016: 2 days of work 2017: 2 weeks of work. 2025: 1 full year of work. * 2033: Over 12 years!!! (Bitcoin at $1 million)
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How many hours of your work
does it take to acquire 1.0 Bitcoin?
For the average American worker:
2015: 1 day of work.
2016: 2 days of work
2017: 2 weeks of work.
2025: 1 full year of work.
* 2033: Over 12 years!!!
(Bitcoin at $1 million)
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Bitcoin is now hitting a psychological resistance zone at $80,000.
This is another Bull Trap, and resistance will reject to $70,000 in a few days.
Then, $BTC will retest the bottom and dump to ~$40,000 in May.
Bookmark this chart - you’ll come back to it next week.
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Latest #btc article just published.
Make sure to sign up for the blurbs or subscribe for full access to the article and the complete archive.
BTC Update
And Commentary on a Currency
davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-update-e…
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Bitcoin's typical down cycle is 364 days.
The top was October 6, 2025 putting the $BTC bottom at October 5, 2026
Based on the parabolic support, that's roughly around $19,000
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
Federal Reserve chair change timed for Bitcoin's down cycle? I've seen stranger things. According to the chart $BTC it should begin in MAY bottom around November 2026. This would align with Kevin Warsh's appointment.
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Bitcoin is still in the Bear Cycle.
We’ve seen this before, and
$BTC
is about to do it again over the next few weeks:
$76,000 → $59,000 → $45,000
Bookmark this chart and check back later.
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