Tim Bryan

Excited to announce that tomorrow is my first day in the baseball operations group with the Chicago White Sox as a data engineer. Looking forward to working with some great people on the Southside!

Starting a thread here that attempts to grade each pick as they come in using a framework that I think mirrors how some decision makers look at the draft. I weighted each component in a way that reflects what I think is most important when trying to extract value ($$$) out of a draft. The components are: Value: As a decision maker its silly to "reach" for picks. I define value as the difference between the pick and mock draft consensus. The weight here is low in the first round as a lot of mock drafts try to "guess" what the early picks are and that tends to shift toward "who should go in a certain range" as the draft goes into later rounds. Quality: This is a prospect score directly from NextGenStats that takes Athelticism, College Production, and Size into account. It looks at the prospects available on the board and compares it to who is still available. A team will get penalized for taking a player with a significantly lower prospect score than whats still available. This gets a moderate weight as I think these scores are well done. Sharpe: My full methodology on this will be linked below, but essentially this is a score based on the potential risk adjusted return. It gets the highest weight because ultimately drafting according to this score will position a team to maximize surplus value of a pick while on the const controlled rookie contract Fit: this looks at the current roster and give a score based on if a starter is already there, the quality of that starter, if they have an expiring contract etc. A lower weight here. The grade I give will depend on the weights and if you think things should be wieghted differently let me know.

My goodness, Munetaka Murakami.

Love to see my boy @run_the_sims’s work getting some well deserved recognition!

#whitesox Bullpen catcher Bennett Markinson was rocking the "Cash Money Coach of the Day" chain at camp today. 💰 Asked Will Venable about it…he said they'll present it daily this Spring to recognize a coach who's done something worth highlighting. It's something he picked up with the Cubs, when then-hitting coach Anthony lapoce introduced it to him. However, this is just the backup chain. I asked what the real one looks like. "We'll have to see tomorrow." Update tomorrow 👀

@SamHoppen @run_the_sims @tejfbanalytics Three kings

Excited to be heading back to the combine in Indy in two weeks with my guys @tejfbanalytics and @run_the_sims! Hoping to see some familiar faces and talk nerdy ball analytics!

Mune had something fun up his sleeve 🤣

Everyone should check out this beast and his team’s BDB submission

Greg Olsen is in a league of his own as far as on-air NFL analysts

WILL ROBERTSON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! 🤯

@tejfbanalytics @SyedSchemes

stats & scheme is becoming a newsletter this year! @SyedSchemes and i will still be breaking down matchups and diving into the film and the data but just in your inbox instead of your podcast feed subscribe here: sumersports.com/stats-scheme-s…

Since everyone seemed to like my last data science deep dive, I’m keeping it rolling with a series on predicting fantasy ppg. Before I get too deep into the weeds and lose the people who can’t eat dinner without YouTube, I included some Zero RB Targets for 2025 (and who the model flagged for 2024). For those with a little more of an attention span, here is a TL;DR on the models: I looked at a decade of ADP data for RB, WR, TE, and QB, built a model that predicts PPG (ppr). Results: Baseline Model R² Actual vs. Pred 2024 PPG: WR: .24, RB: .37, TE: .11, QB: .21. Since I used linear models with coefficients and p-values, I was able to confirm some well-known draft heuristics and actually put some rough numbers to them: RB/WR: every 10 picks in adp generally costs you ~RB 0.8 PPG and WR 0.4 PPG—unless there’s more uncertainty (ADP spread/SD), which softens that penalty later in drafts and increases it early. “be greedy while others are fearful” late is real. QB: Late-round QB still works (shoutout @LateRoundQB) — the drop is steady and linear (~0.3 PPG per 10 picks), and uncertainty (ADP SD) adds signal. Consensus can be beat here, especially when there is uncertainty. TE: Big early drop-off from elites, flatter late. Go get those studs early or PUNT. In future model iterations, the plan is to layer in more player level context (age, draft capital, etc.), advance stats and switch to more complex model systems to try and beat this baseline and, ultimately, the market as a whole. .....for the real sickos out there the rest of the thread explains some of the nuances behind my model building process including some cool charts and methods that helped me make my modeling decisions. Let's dig in 👷

@EaglesXsandOs 🔥

@tejfbanalytics Trying to force a normal distribution perhaps

there's something very interesting happening to tight ends this year where every TE from TE7 onward is a "value" relative to their ADP when using points over replacement could also mean that projection systems are over-projecting non elite TEs

@run_the_sims Hopping on

Not too late to hop on the bandwagon folks

Big Friday night at “The Rate” … fired up and I’m 700 miles away … I’ll be glued to the tube at 6:40pm CT … after my shift (7-8pm ET) at @MLBNetwork … let’s go @whitesox …. 35th & Shields better be rockin ! LFG “Sox” ⚾️! Volume will be on full blast on @CHSN__ . #LFGSox

@tejfbanalytics Going to blindly follow this for my draft. Hope you’re okay with this determining my mental well-being for the whole football season.

put together a shiny app where you can input your league settings and get points over replacement rankings that are tailored to your league link: zindigi42.shinyapps.io/custom-fantasy…

SOX WIN!

@ND_FB_Analytics Congrats!!!

Have some news to share Next week, I will be joining the Green Bay Packers as a Football Analytics intern I want to thank everyone who's engaged with my content and shared my work, I wouldn't be in this position without all of you

Grant Taylor 💯