Tim Lawless

@simoneyles777 Thankyou Simon! Windsor knot every time 😎

@timlawless needs to do a YouTube video on how to tie a tie. Been watching the monthly property updates for years now and it has been perfect every time. #flawlesslawless #teachme #tiemasterclass #corelogic #ausproperty

Getting in shape for a busy week w @mariapet ft @_warrenhogan and @DianaMousina on the economy and the RBA, @EvanLucas_INV on Qantas and FMG and @timlawless on house prices. Binge-Watching RBA, Qantas & Fortescue eurekareport.com.au/investment-new…

I was fortunate enough to speak with the crew at @PodcastFear this morning, about the aspirational 1.2 million new homes target from national cabinet, a pre-spring rise in listings, the 'fixed rate cliff' and regional housing trends. A digestible 15 min👇 fearandgreed.com.au/business-news-…

@corelogicau HVI: 2nd month of slowing growth, although Bris & Adel accelerated to a national leading 1.4% rise in values. New listings on the rise, which helped take some some heat out of market, and rents up for the 35th monthly rise in row, but the smallest rise since Dec 21

Housing values trending higher pretty much everywhere...

@thechartist A slightly longer view since the onset of COVID...

#Noosa property prices.

@DaveTaylorNews Part of the confusion comes from the OCR acronym… in Australia that is the Overnight Cash Rate but some think the acronym stands for Official Cash Rate. rba.gov.au/mkt-operations… But in NZ…. OCR actually IS an acronym for Official Cash Rate. rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-polic….

I have confirmed with the RBA Australia does NOT have an ‘official’ cash rate It sets a ‘cash rate target’ which influences its cash rate

Lending indicators for March showed an absolute boom in home lending, up 4.9% in the month, led by a 12.3% jump in first home buyer lending.

Short & sharp: the housing downturn looks to be over after @corelogicau HVI posted 2 months of growth, led by Sydney up 3% in 3 months. The rise comes after a 9.7% drop in capital city home values, the swiftest decline on record. Full detail here 👇 corelogic.com.au/news-research/…

@DaveTaylorNews Good to see the cost of new dwellings coming down fast (largest weight in the cpi basket) but rents accelerating (second largest weight in the basket).

Do we understand what it will take to get inflation down to 2 to 3 per cent? The "housing" category (ABS data) was up roughly 2% for the quarter at roughly 10% for the year

@PeteWargent @Harpsism Its rare for costs to actually fall - in almost 30yrs we have only seen the index fall 10 times (half of these occasions was just -0.1% or less). There might be some downwards movement after such a large increase, but unlikely to be 'material'. More here: corelogic.com.au/news-research/…

@Harpsism @timlawless pass…one for Tim!

Quarterly construction cost index slows from 1.9pc to 0.9c New dwellings have a CPI weighting of 8.6pc Note: the biggest ever drop was 0.1pc h/t @timlawless (Cordell) #ausbiz

@mikejanda @itjohnstone @ASX1500 Method docs are here: (click on methodology tab) corelogic.com.au/our-data/corel….

@itjohnstone @ASX1500 Maybe @timlawless can direct you to the right place. I've read a couple of detailed briefings on their methodology, but that was a long time ago when CoreLogic was relatively new to the market. It's the reason the RBA and most private sector economists tend to quote their numbers

Prices rallying? No. Prices had a 10-15% jolt down and stabilised. No one wants to sell property more than 10-15% from the high. It will be an interesting year.

The Housing Chart Pack is out, and findings are in 📊 🔼 Total value of resi real estate rose to $9.3T but remains well below the peak of $10T (Apr ’22) 🔽 Home values logged the largest annual decline on record (-7.9%) Get more market metrics here 👇 ow.ly/ICCS50NcMVq

@PeteWargent @murrayashmore The 'median value' is the 50th percentile of the individual property valuation estimates that underpin the hedonic regression. It's not a median price.

@murrayashmore good question. i guess it’s because as a “hedonic” index they adjust the numbers in a model @timlawless ?

Aus dwelling prices -7.2 y/y in Jan-23 (CoreLogic) #ausbiz 🇦🇺

@PeteWargent @insurgoformica The clearance rate isn't calculated when the # of auctions moves through the festive period low - the graph is bridging the gap between observations in the weekly data (see graph below with 4 week trend removed). The weighted average is for the cap city rate, weighted by volume.

@insurgoformica Cc. @timlawless

Only a small sample of auctions this week (CoreLogic) #ausbiz

@TheGladiatorHC @corelogicau Over the past 20 years the index has only moved into negative territory twice (Q1 2001 after disruption from GST intro & Q1 2007 after a few years of dwelling approvals winding down) so it will be interesting to see if costs do come down or simply find a new floor.

@timlawless @corelogicau Problem is 1.9% growth is it's ontop of the 11.9% from last year. Construction cost need deflation rather than slower inflation. To your point though, it's good for overall inflation coming down though.

Some good news for inflation: @corelogicau reporting a sharp drop in the rate of growth for resi construction costs through Q4 '22. Housing has the largest weighting within CPI, and new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers is the largest weighting within the housing category.

@RodDoyle5 @corelogicau Once interest rates start to reduce we should see some growth return to housing markets, but timing is highly uncertain... 20yr average annual growth rates across the capitals have ranged from 3.1% in Darwin to 6.2% in Hobart

A diverse outcome in housing markets last year... the full summary from @corelogicau corelogic.com.au/news-research/…

Australia's housing markets finished the year weaker, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index down -1.1% in December. Values were -5.3% lower over 2022, the first national annual decline since 2018. ow.ly/gese50MgjpE #property #houseprices