todd windemuth

@satyanadella Not only impressive results but the underlying infrastructure scale plan to win in the broad AI space. #MSFT

Just reported our quarterly results. We are still in the beginning phases of AI diffusion and its broad GDP impact, and already we’ve built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises that took decades to build. Our quarterly cloud revenue crossed $50 billion for the first time. What’s striking is it was less than 10 years ago that our annual cloud revenue was $10 billion! (That is what expanding TAM + good execution looks like) A few other highlights from across the stack:

Another awesome set of interviews by @jam_croissant. Impressive set of guests speaking on vol/options with immense depth and macro connection provided by each. Certainly worth a few re-watches. youtu.be/7jeHHBYH5Cs?si…

I guess this is where we're at @junkwindry

@dampedspring Someone who can reflect and grow is definitely someone worth listening to. Glad to see you back @dampedspring

Hey I'm back. Been on self imposed break for two weeks. Let me reintroduce myself I'm Andy Constan and I'm 61 years old and have done some stuff and seen some things I love contributing to Twitter and look forward to contributing again I have a naive ideal that Twitter is the public square where people can discuss their ideas and help each other find truth. I left when I realized I was not living up to my own ideal and getting dragged down into the muck. I didnt like who I had become. I was treating others from major content contributors to innocents with less respect than they deserve and less respect than I hope to be given. For that I am deeply sorry. I am sorry to all that valued my posts for taking a much needed break. I am sorry to all innocents I flamed. I am sorry to all folks who are doing their own thing who I attacked. Respect for all you each do and I hope we can get along I plan to 1) Post primarily investment content and analysis in short, long and meme format. Sprinkling in some early Gen X late boomer culture, food, car, model train and wordle stuff to be authentic to who I am. 2) Refrain from posting trades or performance at all. It's all just cringy anyway. 3) Post some content which debunks misinformation while being completely respectful of the original poster 4) Engage respectfully and often with all others willing to open mindedly seek truth 5) Never flame anyone. 6) For those I have blocked I am happy to lift the block and will be working though by block list to correct The time away has allowed me time to reflect on my own behavior and again I did not like who I had become. But I am ready to hold myself to my standard and ignore those who feel they need to attack me.

@TheStalwart @PrestonMui @ash_georgexx @IrvingSwisher The out of the box thinking is great but it's always more complicated. Regulations such as EMTALA require hospitals to bear an implicit cost that has to be paid for somehow. If you looked at optimizing regulations, you might find more productive ways to fight inflation.

WHAT TRUMP CAN DO TO FIGHT INFLATION New Odd Lots newsletter, a great contribution from @PrestonMui, @ash_georgexx and @IrvingSwisher on the healthcare policy that could be done right now to give the Fed more rate-cutting space. Read the full thing here: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

A pretty awesome overall recap of where things are at the moment 👇

@adamtaggart I would suggest avoiding PR pitches. There's a reason they're being pitched. What I propose we want is the most unbiased information possible. When you start wading into PR folks there's an auto-bias. We as listeners then have to discount this...I don't want the overhead.

I get multiple emails every day from PR folks pitching me to interview their clients. Most of these are not high quality enough 2 recent ones I'm considering are Carson Block/Muddy Waters & Robert Prechter/Elliott Wave Are you interested in either?

@awealthofcs So very sorry Ben. That was a beautiful tribute to a very special brother.

My brother Jon died this week after complications from pancreatic cancer He would have turned 46 in March Jon was very private about it all but I wanted to tell his story so I wrote about it Hug your loved ones awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/there-…

High skilled immigration has been central to America leading the world in tech. The biggest misunderstand about high skill immigration stems from people thinking that the market opportunities in tech, and tech-adjacent fields, are zero sum. This essentially imagines innovation is finite and we’re all fighting over the same job or opportunity pool. This may be true of a few very legacy, slow growth industries, but it’s categorically not true for any important industry in the past 50 years or the next 100. Biotech, AI, advanced manufacturing, software, EVs, new energy sources, and dozens of other fields of the future are our high growth industries. And there’s no inherently fixed volume of companies or talent that the market needs. Tesla being started or not started in America is the difference between 100,000’s of jobs here - and leading in EVs globally - and not. Apple being started here is the difference between potentially millions of jobs being here - and leading consumer electronics globally - and not. You could go through this list all day long. Tech is not zero sum. More startups, pursuing more ideas, ultimately create more innovation and ultimately more jobs and prosperity. And that means you need the right talent to both work at these companies, and start the next ones. High skilled immigration has directly made America dominant technically and thus economically, and create far more jobs in America for others than are supposedly displaced. Even briefly imagining the alternative scenario, it’s obvious how disastrous this would be. The demand from tech companies for this top talent will remain, yet America won’t benefit directly from their hiring. That talent will go to another company that competes with the US and makes our dominance harder to maintain. You’re just increasing the odds you have more competition in the future. And even in the “best case” scenario (for our competitiveness) where a larger company like Google hires the same people internationally that would have otherwise moved here, when that person leaves Google to start their next company, it will be in their country of origin, not America. This is how you lose the tech war within one or two generations. There’s simply no good game theory in anything that reduces our talent access. Yes, we absolutely have and need to continue to educate and train incredible talent that grows up in the US, but equally having access to the world’s smartest talent has always been a huge advantage for America.

One bad day in markets and people are losing their minds... The markets are a marathon...you are competing against the best of the best globally 24/7/365...no rules, misdirection everywhere, more players than ever, raps and tricks and grifts and noise all around. Man up

@realDonaldTrump @elonmusk do you think we could get the @realDonaldTrump a blue checkmark?

@texasrunnerDFW That's the most awesome way to demonstrate integrity ...the little things.

Was doing some Christmas shopping today and as I left the store, realized the cashier had forgotten to ring up one $30 item The 1st thought in my head (kind of embarrassed to admit) was annoyance about the long line I would need to wait in to rectify someone else’s error But I felt unsettled walking off with something I didn’t pay for So I went back in. And waited in line. The cashier was floored. “I can’t believe you came back to pay for this. Thank you for your honesty and God bless you” In life, we have a lot of opportunities to do the right thing (or the wrong thing) when no one else is looking The decisions we make in these little unseen moments matter, and over time shape the course of our lives, relationships, and character Taking the time to make something right is *always* worth the inconvenience

@NickWoolos same pulse when at 6010?

Pulse Check

@EconguyRosie perhaps recession fears are not quite as certain as it appeared??

Definition of irrational despondency:  The Treasury market responding the very same way to the meek +12k payroll headline today as to the +254k surge we saw exactly a month ago.   I am not sure at all what the bondies are seeing but something tells me they are sniffing out a GoP sweep on Tuesday.  Between the tepid employment report, even after all the strike and storm adjustments, and the contractionary 46.5 ISM reading, there really is no other plausible explanation for today’s yield meltup.

@StephanieKelton Interest payments go largely to investors who take interest payments and increase risk assets (not necessarily on employing more people or small biz). That's not consumer inflationary but asset inflationary...isn't that precisely why we have wealth disparity?

But what about interest payments? As followers of this account know, interest is a (regressive) federal subsidy. Every form of spending (private or public) carries inflation risk. But most public commentary about interest expenditure misses the point entirely. 19/

Why does the government almost always spend in excess of taxes --i.e. run a budget deficit ? A 🧵 1/

@historyrock_ stupendous

Describe Steve Perry with 1 word 👇🏻 #Journey

@Ksidiii I would suggest that vol is probably not that mis-priced on the right tail, it's just that vol typically manifests in RV on the left tail side. Not so much RV>IV on the right tail.

I remember being asked a long time ago, “What’s the oddest thing you’ve observed in the volatility market?” One of the most surprising phenomena is how historically underpriced medium- to long-dated S&P upside calls have been. For over 200 years, U.S. stocks have exhibited a consistent upward trajectory, driven by the equity risk premium that capital markets inherently reward. Despite this, option pricing models often fail to account for this gradual upward drift. This is because these models tend to overlook the impact of a steady, compounding rise in value. As a result, options on an asset that climbs predictably are frequently underpriced. For instance, consider an asset that rises 1% every day for a decade—its realized volatility is essentially zero, implieds will barely trade 5 Vols over on something like that lol Additionally, the widespread practice of call selling by investors seeking to generate income against their stock positions further suppresses the price of these options. This compounding effect keeps these upside calls priced lower than what their value dynamics would suggest. What’s striking is that this is no hidden secret. The market is aware, and yet, this golden ticket continues to deliver returns. As the old saying goes “K.I.S.S”.

@adamtaggart validation. However, there's quite a jump between 95th percentile and the 99%!

Wonder how your net worth compares to your age group? This table (using Fed data) shows you In this case, net worth includes home equity Does your ranking on this table surprise you? Or validate what you expected?

@elonmuskADO we became apathetic

@options_insight @davidbrickell80 Simply it's financializing crypto. This blows up the underlying point of crypto in the first place. Certainly will allow for trading - but was that really the point?

Getting in a live studio every week with @davidbrickell80 for 20 minutes is for sure going to help my investing. Here is a clip of the key takeaways from our conversation the day before the BTC ETF approvals. We warned our subs to get hedged for this "event" because we've seen this type of market psychology play out many times in our 20 plus year careers in finance. Don't worry, it's not all doom and gloom. Link to the full episode is in our bio. If you haven't got into crypto options yet, this weekly podcast will help you get the scoop on what matters in the world of macro, crypto and crypto options. "CRYPTO OPTIONS UNPLUGGED" Thanks to @Amberdataio again for appearing in our inaugural episode.