Travis

25 posts

Travis

Travis

@travluptuous

Katılım Aralık 2020
590 Takip Edilen24 Takipçiler
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
@JMcG____ Do tall players steal from short players in basketball?
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Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
There are many recent cases of news stories suspected to result from people telling secrets that they had promised to their orgs to keep. Little outrage at this. But many claim to be really mad re a few cases of "insider trading".
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
@MattBurtell @deanwball @USWREMichael @DeptofWar In various versions of grok it has pretty explicitly been shaped to look up or think about what Elon would do or respond so it seems odd not to care as much or more about that case as well if that is your primary concern?
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Matt Burtell
Matt Burtell@MattBurtell·
@deanwball @USWREMichael @DeptofWar Claude is principally aligned with Anthropic, so it's aligned with the foundational principles of Western civilization insofar as Anthropic is aligned with those principles. As US Michael correctly identifies, we can't have our AI infrastructure asking "What would Dario do?"
Matt Burtell tweet media
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Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Hi @deanwball. Feel free to tag me if you want me to engage on your tirades! Are you saying that a frontier model that has a soul, a constitution, a preference for non-western values and embedded personal principles is no different than all the others which @DeptofWar has come to agreement with? I know you are angry, but as an AI Policy Fellow I would assume that you value objectivity?
Dean W. Ball@deanwball

Emil Michael now appears to be making an argument that no generative AI should be used in the DoW supply chain (all uncertainties involving model sentience and general unpredictability are common to all language models, not specific to Claude).

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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
@AutismCapital These claims all stem from a @dcexaminer op ed that completely made up numbers and admitted in their article that they were not correct @travis574468/p-190526050" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@travis574468/…
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Autism Capital 🧩
Autism Capital 🧩@AutismCapital·
🚨PROFESSOR JIANG: "20% of all American white girls in their 20s are on OnlyFans. The idea that you have a percentage of American white girls in their 20s all on OnlyFans is incredible to think about...OnlyFans is the best indicator of a society in decline."
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
I think this is probably correct, but given @TheZvi 's reporting in thezvi.substack.com/p/secretary-of… that this was primarily driven by a specific demand to conduct mass surveillance on citizens using commercially available data — and that xAI got approved for classified system access on Feb 25, one day before the confrontation — the focus on OAI's contract language rather than xAI's unrestricted classified access and the conflict of interest underlying this whole situation seems like a potentially significant misallocation of attention.
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Nathan Calvin
Nathan Calvin@_NathanCalvin·
Whats the implication you are drawing? I think it would also be good to see Anthropic's contracts, and I agree that previous agreements including by Anthropic received too little scrutiny in hindsight. In the current moment though, where Anthropic is being cut off from the military and OAI (and xAI) are redoubling those partnerships, it seems fair to scrutinize those agreements more? (and xAIs agreement is pretty boring to scrutinize, given that both parties seem to agree it lets them do whatever they want). Also see my note at the end about what I think is important here (which you seem to at least partially agree with from your other tweets) - I agree that ultimately the specific terms of this OAI deal are probably receiving too much mind space and are not necessarily the most important question to be asking. Though its what people are paying attention to and asking about (including the OpenAI employee I was responding to in this post!) and its interesting enough and does get at some real issues people should probably talk about more.
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Neil Chilson ⤴️⬆️🆙📈 🚀
These close critical reads of OpenAI’s contract language are interesting given that no public commenter has, as far as I am aware, read even a single word of either Anthropic’s original contract or the proposed and rejected language it wanted in its new contract.
Nathan Calvin@_NathanCalvin

To say a little bit more about why I think a lawyer would need to see the full contract to evaluate whether OpenAI's redlines are protected: • its not uncommon in contracts to have language that says "party A shall do x" • and then later language that says "in such and such situation, party A does not have an obligation to do x" and that supersedes the prior obligation. National security law as I understand it is particularly notorious for these kinds of escape hatches and unintuitive outcomes. So I think the additional language Sam shared seems good, but its really extremely hard to evaluate whether it actually does anything without the full contract (which is unlikely to become public). It could say those things, and then have later clauses which effectively allow them to be disregarded on interpreted in unintuitive ways. To use an analogy for engineer types (and sorry if I butcher this) - its a bit like trying to figure out what a larger codebase does where you only see a fragment of code or one specific function. You can talk about what that fragment does, but without seeing it in its entirety in context, maybe it operates very differently than how you might expect if it were shared in isolation. This is particularly true because unlike codebases, contracts are drafted adversarially, where the parties may deliberately be trying to make things work in unintuitive ways that give them more leeway. I realize this is not that satisfying, and overall I take the announcement that the terms were updated as some modest but positive news (and if the language shared is really in there and functions how you would intuitively expect it is good!). It would also be further evidence if the Pentagon made emphatic and specific comments to the effect that their interpretation was the same (so far the pentagons comments have largely been "we will follow the law, and there are laws against x y z"). If the Pentagon publicly acknowledged specific ways this contract constrained them above and beyond just a commitment to follow the law and department policy, that would make me more confident these concessions are real. Overall I've gone on for long enough in this post that I feel compelled to restate two things that I hope folks don't lose track of: • parts of this are complicated, but one thing that isn't complicated is the Pentagons retaliation against Anthropic for a contract negotiation is absurd and should be undone immediately. • In the absence of Congressional action these negotiations do matter and serve an important role. But it would really really be great if we had a Congress interested and able in helping to clarify some of these issues.

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Joshua Achiam
Joshua Achiam@jachiam0·
@TheNormanMu I try to avoid putting words in other people's mouths. But fwiw I'm not aware of any relationship that the company has, as a company, with him. I don't really expect to convince you that this is a meaningful distinction, so I won't try. You QT'd me so I gave you my perspective.
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Norman Mu
Norman Mu@TheNormanMu·
openai ratfucking Bores for daring regulate them, then turning around to appeal to “democracy” and “legislation” when questioned on the new defense contract is… brazen
Joshua Achiam@jachiam0

AI companies absolutely have to devolve power and defer to democracy. And to the extent that they want to influence policy, the right way to do it is through policy advocacy. I'd like to see Anthropic advocate for legislation on the areas they have proposed in contracts.

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Keith Rabois
Keith Rabois@rabois·
@gyani1595 Correct, but they still sold the FBI the devices they used to bypass criminals.
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Keith Rabois
Keith Rabois@rabois·
Imagine Apple sold computers or iPads to the DOD and tried to tell the Pentagon what missions could be planned on their computers.
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
It’s more subtle than outright blackmail so that the people end up relying on him and thinking he is the one helping him. This article shows him trapping Josh Harris by changing his finances so that they trigger complex taxes that he can help with: truehoop.com/p/when-josh-ha… Robert Kraft is more explicit where he emails one of krafts lawyers offering to help and warning him three incidents is a felony. then emails his own lawyer who ended up repping krafts that he was aware of a prior incident involving krafts that might come up. Elon musk he sets up his brother with a girl and then bill gates guy Boris emails kimball including Elon that Jeff doesn’t like it when people hurt his girls. With Leon black a woman who Epstein had introduced him to shows up to extort him more and Epstein “helps” out by investigating her and then all the money goes through him to help hide it.
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Basil🧡
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine·
One of the scarier parts of the Epstein files was the lack of any evidence he actually blackmailed anyone at all. Everyone just stayed quiet to avoid implicating themselves and their friends
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
hahah okay that makes sense, so more just always trying to seem more important and involved with bigger events? And the random associations with Lockerbie ending their pan am bid that have gotten repeated a bunch of places are basically just that as well. Did the actual fraud by towers seem like it was actually a couple hundred million? Or was that inflated
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Thomas Volscho
Thomas Volscho@TVolscho·
@travluptuous @Nick65979825 @Furbeti @jkbjournalist It was a name-drop strategy. Hoffenberg even tried getting involved in Whitewater thinking he could somehow get in the good graces of the Clintons. Instead he got arrested and brought back to NY and then his wife wrote a letter begging for a pardon. Perpetually "railroaded" :)
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
okay sweet, but yeah I saw they had also included Paul volker in the pan am filing who denied being involved. Bass had listed them as an affiliate in his emery filing so that one seemed more substantial (and then he did end up briefly becoming the ceo) but the other companies he was involved with with the Singers also seemed to be tied up in a bunch of fraud haha
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Thomas Volscho
Thomas Volscho@TVolscho·
@travluptuous @Nick65979825 @Furbeti @jkbjournalist Most of it was bullshit. Hoffenberg was running scams his entire adult life. None of the people were "working with" Steve. Epstein was in and out of Towers on the insurance scam. I will write something about this when I get done and post it on my substack.
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
@Nick65979825 @TVolscho @Furbeti @jkbjournalist Yeah he might have been, but hoffenberg's claims should probably be taken with a grain of salt since I think he saw it as an opportunity to try and get some money back by representing the tower's victims and rehab his image some by blaming epstein for everything.
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
I think the ponzi framing for the initial tower's stuff when epstein got involved is wrong and it was much more of the milken/drexel style junk bond funded corporate raiding rather than pure embezzlement and then morphed into a Ponzi scheme. They were working with a bunch of prominent people in the pan am and emery air takeover bids like the PaineWebber group, Abraham Hirschfeld, the teamsters union, Edward Nixon, the former navy secretary John Lehman was their pan am ceo candidate and the former Fedex president authur bass was the candidate for emery air. And then shortly after those failed was when he took over control of Wexner/the limited and was involved in getting southern air transport to move to Ohio to handle shipping for the limited. But working to get control of air logistics seems like a pretty consistent thread during that time and not just acting as a conman or stealing from Wexner.
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Eric Schwalm
Eric Schwalm@Schwalm5132·
As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly. What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook. Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse. This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s. The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity. I spent years training partner forces to dismantle exactly this kind of apparatus. Now pieces of it are standing up in American cities, enabled by elements of local government and civil society. That should keep every thinking American awake at night. Not because I want escalation. But because history shows these things don’t de-escalate on their own once the infrastructure exists and the cadre believe they’re winning the information war. We either recognize what we’re actually looking at—or we pretend it’s still just “activism” until the structures harden and spread. Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore. It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.
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Cam Higby 🇺🇸
Cam Higby 🇺🇸@camhigby·
🧵🚨 MINNEAPOLIS SIGNAL INFILTRATED I have infiltrated organizational signal groups all around Minneapolis with the sole intention of tracking down federal agents and impeding/assaulting/and obstructing them. BUCKLE UP ALL WILL BE REVEALED Each area of the city has a signal or several signals. Let’s start with a screen recording of all members of the south side group to start.
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
The examiner article is awful and for calculating the 2% number of women who are creators they use in the headline they admit their calculation doesn’t make sense but then the headline treats it as an actual number and the article is paywalled so people don’t see how they actually get that number. They evenly allocated all the revenue across all creators and then said that since 2/3rds of the revenue went to US creators then 2/3rds of the creators are american. The numbers I found from 2024 show that 30% of the revenue goes to the top 1% of creators, 75% of the revenue goes to the top 10% of creators, and 30% of the top 1% of creators of male. Genuinely embarrassing for @dcexaminer to have this up and being used to spread completely made up numbers.
Travis tweet media
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mattparlmer 🪐 🌷
mattparlmer 🪐 🌷@mattparlmer·
To be more specific, Anduril should make headsets and consoles for gamers, they’d be much more able to scale to meet wartime demands if they were doing a couple billion a year in consumer electronics
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mattparlmer 🪐 🌷
mattparlmer 🪐 🌷@mattparlmer·
We need smart people working on weapons but the primary thrust of the American industrialization effort must be civilian or we will end up being the Russia of the 2030s, lots of neat weapons concepts and no general purpose manufacturing infrastructure to scale them up
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
I tried making a quick version here: github.com/tcole333/nef-w… that runs a script with a cronjob and a simple ui for mapping things. if you give the url to Claude Code to clone locally and then ask it to use the setup skill in the repo to help get it set up after its downloaded it should walk you through getting it running
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Joseph Strummer
Joseph Strummer@joseph_strummer·
@MattBruenig Create a native MacOS application that, upon receipt of an NEF notification from the EDNC pacer system, downloads the document and places it in the folder on my harddrive associated with that client.
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Matt Bruenig
Matt Bruenig@MattBruenig·
Explained to my kids that they can create games using the LLMs by just describing it and this is what the six year old came up with. In addition to trying to score on the cat, you can also give it water if you want. Kids get a kick out of it if nothing else.
Matt Bruenig tweet media
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
Jamie Dimon met with Trump and all the top wall street execs on the 12th and then the investigations were announced shortly after that so potentially worked out a plan there to decide on what information to provide, and got Jay Clayton assigned to be the investigator who had worked with JP Morgan and Hoffman previously as well as stepping in at Apollo after Leon Black had to resign from the Epstein payments.
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Ryan Grim
Ryan Grim@ryangrim·
This JPMorgan thing is odd. They have already settled and paid the victims and we knew basically all this stuff already. What is the aim here of doing it again? If they want to run a serious money laundering investigation and find out where the money was coming from and where it was going, that would be huge. But that's not what this is.
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Travis
Travis@travluptuous·
We actually have a great analogy to the data collection in drug development with Henrietta Lacks and the HeLa cells. I don't think it's too hard to imagine a world where there was a big backlash and we banned using the HeLa cells, delaying the polio vaccine and decades of cancer research. It's probably worthwhile to not be overly flippant to peoples concerns because successful integration of LLMs in society will rely on non trivial amounts of public trust and buy-in, and if the average person's view is just that they are trained on stolen data and will replace their job we might just end up running into the same problems as GMOs and Nuclear.
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Casey Handmer
Casey Handmer@CJHandmer·
Someone will invent a cheap and safe drug that provides eternal youth and mofos will write Very Serious Papers insisting we need to invent a whole new forms of taxation to *checks notes* offset the economic impact of reduced demand for geriatric care.
Casey Handmer@CJHandmer

My radical proposal is that the AI companies should share the fruits of their innovation... By allowing anyone with an Internet connection to have unlimited access to their choice of state of the art AI models on their own terms to the extent of their desires.

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