troll ravioli

Another +0.5% day for stocks with zero bounce at all for crypto Diabolical

Jeff Bezos said the bottom half of Americans should pay zero federal income tax. He cited a nurse in Queens making ~$75K and paying ~$12K in taxes saying “we shouldn’t be asking this nurse in Queens to send money to Washington.”

Bezos on CNBC: "You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens. I promise you."

People are going to sell Intel way too soon. Don't sell a dime before $100.

On Cyclicality & Holding Periods (with regards to $HOOD & $COIN): My favourite holding period is forever. However, that simply isn’t possible with cyclical businesses. The traditional cyclical sectors include oil&gas, homebuilders, automobiles, semiconductors etc… However, in recent times, the most obviously cyclical industry has been cryptocurrencies. Two of my key holdings happen to fall into that category: $HOOD $COIN I believe both of these businesses are “generational” type businesses (yes I know that name gets thrown around way too easily, but i truly believe they are). They have mission driven founders who have executed unlike any other in the space, incredible product market fit and strong tailwinds going for it. However, there is no way to hide from the fact that Crypto operates in 4 year cycles, with a typical 80-90% drawdown to be expected in $BTC and even larger for other alts. This will inevitably lead to a massive decrease in transaction-related revenues as trading demand falls off a cliff. $COIN of course is a pure crypto play, with ~80% of revenues today generated from transaction revenues, while $HOOD earns ~40% of its transaction-based revenues from Crypto. Both have also benefited heavily from net interest revenues due to rates staying higher for longer. $COIN earns ~20% of its revenue from interest earned through its cash/stablecoins/cryptocurrency holdings while roughly 1/3 of $HOOD revenues today are from net interest revenues. It is inevitable that the 4 year crypto cycle, coupled with lower interest rates, will act as a major headwind against both businesses. I guess, after this whole ramble, my point is that I believe both businesses will struggle in 2026, and possibly 2027 as it comps against 2025’s peak transaction and interest revenues. Hence, I will likely sell off 80-100% of my stakes in both businesses, despite how much of a believer I am in them, with the hope of repurchasing them in 2026/2027 at trough multiples and when people start giving up on them (as I did in 2023, $COIN at $80 and $HOOD at $8) As usual, NFA!

U.S. President Donald J. Trump appears to be leaning toward ordering a “major ground operation” against Iran, involving the seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, with Washington convinced Tehran will buckle under such military pressure, an official from one of the countries mediating between the U.S. and Iran tells The Times of Israel.

NEW: Major investigation dropping February 26 on one of crypto’s most profitable businesses where multiple employees abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period of time.