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Tý Chu
2.7K posts
Tý Chu
@tychulegend
Full-stack Developer 📚, all in #BTC
Moon Katılım Mayıs 2023
499 Takip Edilen309 Takipçiler
Apparently @TrustlessState from @Bankless has sold all his Ethereum?
Looks like my 2021 prediction was off by a year.
As a former altcoiner, eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin.
It's painful to accept at first, but then all the cognitive dissonance disappears and a steady conviction in Bitcoin builds.
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Can someone explain to me why Saylor feels the need to post shit like this?
Michael Saylor@saylor
Let me recap the Q&A. $MSTR
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@mert @MarioNawfal There won't be a second Bitcoin, but we know for sure there will be N+ Zcash in the future 😂😂😂
Bitcoin - no second best 🫡
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@MarioNawfal i) bitcoin has no "encryption" to crack
ii) zcash will be ready before anything mentioned here
iii) zcash is already quantum recoverable
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Quantum computers could crack bitcoin's encryption by 2030, and the industry has no clear plan to stop it.
A recent Google paper found quantum machines could break crypto security faster than anyone expected, targeting the private keys that protect digital wallets.
Funds stolen this way are gone forever.
Circle, Ripple and Ethereum are all building quantum-resistant systems. Bitcoin, leaderless and decentralized, is still figuring out who's supposed to fix it.
The crypto community has survived hacks, crashes, and government crackdowns.
They're not losing sleep over a computer that doesn't exist yet.
Source: Financial Times
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸 The U.S. government is now a direct shareholder in quantum computing. The Trump administration is taking $2 billion in equity stakes across nine quantum companies, including a new IBM venture. The explicit goal: counter China's quantum advancement before it becomes a national security problem. This is significant. Governments don't take equity positions in speculative tech. They do it when the technology is too important to lose. Quantum computing breaks current encryption standards, accelerates drug discovery, and rewrites financial modeling at a level classical computers can't touch. Whoever leads this race sets the rules. Washington just decided it's not leaving that to the private sector alone. Source: Reuters
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But how much XRP was on the balance sheet?
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: Elon Musk's SpaceX discloses holding 18,712 $BTC worth over $1.4 billion.
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#BTC ROI as measured low-to-low.
Purple line is current cycle.
All 3 cycles peaked around the same time and then entered into a bear market.
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Tý Chu retweetledi
🚀THIS IS A HISTORIC BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR BITCOIN IF YOU CAN WAIT 1 YEAR🚀
Check this out, kids.
I calculated a Z-score, computed on the Mayer Multiple (Spot ÷ 200WMA), measured across the full daily history since the 200WMA first becomes computable in mid-2014 (~4,400 daily observations).
Distribution: Mean MM = 2.29, Std = 1.65
Today's read: Spot $77,457 / 200WMA $61,071 = MM 1.27 → Z = −0.62
Percentile: 23rd - only 23% of all daily history has been more compressed than today
I then pulled every historical day with a Z-score within ±0.15σ of today's −0.62, then deduplicated within 30-day windows to avoid double-counting clustered episodes.
That yields 42 distinct historical analogues with complete 18-month forward windows.
These episodes cluster around the late-2014/early-2015 bottoming process, the late-2018 capitulation, the March-2020 COVID flush, the mid-2022 LUNA/3AC washout, and the 2023 grinding recovery.
Each was a moment when spot was meaningfully under-stretched relative to its long-term floor - exactly where we sit today.
Forward Return Distribution:
6-month forward (n = 42):
Mean: +53.8% · Median: +51.2%
Range: −47.2% to +188.8%
Positive: 81%
12-month forward (n = 42):
Mean: +153.2% · Median: +131.6%
Range: −12.3% to +678.7%
Positive: 95%
18-month forward (n = 42):
Mean: +313.0% · Median: +196.9%
Range: +16.4% to +1,345.5%
Positive: 100%
EVERY historical instance of Bitcoin trading at a Z-score this compressed has produced a positive 18-month return.
Yes. Forty-two for forty-two.
Worst-case 18-month outcome was the May 2022 analogue at +22%, which is still a 14.6% annualized return from what felt like the end of the world.
12-month positivity is 95%.
The only two losses were the June 2022 print (−12%) and the May 2022 print (−8%) - both occurred during the only sustained period in Bitcoin's history when the 200WMA itself was at risk of being tested (the LUNA/Celsius/3AC implosion).
6-month outcomes are noisier (81% positive) because six months is a window where compressed Z-scores can stay compressed, or even drift lower before resolving.
That's the timeframe where the "it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" objection actually lives.
If you can wait 1 year to 18 months... this is where you EARN IT.
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Tý Chu retweetledi
Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has never posted a negative year.
Not in 2018. Not in 2022. Not now.
Year-end YoY growth of the 200WMA:
2015: +36.0%
2016: +55.6%
2017: +234.8%
2018: +136.2%
2019: +57.3%
2020: +54.0%
2021: +139.6%
2022: +30.6%
2023: +22.0%
2024: +43.6%
2025: +33.0%
2026 YTD: +7.5%
The spot price terrifies you.
The floor compounds anyway.
Twelve consecutive years of a rising floor in the most volatile asset on earth.
This is what monetization looks like in real time.
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@CoinDesk @Kalshi @chainlink Altcoins can make you poor 😉 You can ask anyone who's trading altcoins right now 😉
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@AxelAdlerJr Those who wanted to sell have already sold, and companies like Strategy have absorbed the supply quite well. Bitcoin may correct, but a sharp correction is almost impossible.
I'm not selling Bitcoin 🫡
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@AxelAdlerJr Most retailers got caught up in things like Bitcoin 2.0 (altcoins) and lost all their money, so retail cash flow was virtually non-existent during this bull run 😁
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Bitcoin pushed above $82K in May. Average funding never turned positive once. Traders were hedging the rally, not chasing it.
Now taker pressure is down 35-40% from the May 6 peak.
The move looked strong. The conviction never was.
☕️ Morning Brief #169 👇
axeladlerjr.com/the-bulls-are-…
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JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says Bitcoin might be replaced in the future
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One of my favorite photos of me
Real World Asset Watchlist@RWAwatchlist_
🚨 Tom Lee predicts Ethereum could reach $62,500. He says tokenization and AI agents could drive massive demand for crypto infrastructure in the years ahead. ETH + RWAs might become one of the biggest narratives of this cycle 🚀
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