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@nachkari It seems to give context and sources for stuff. Not ‘workflow’ replacement for anyone with thinking jobs - google replacement. Maybe I’m using it wrong though

@CipherCap @ohcapideas Carry isn’t an annuity and bottom line looks dire without it or stressing it. Fee pressure and declining excess returns in some business lines. I’m long but this is a financial not annuity and market can turn hard on financials for extended periods of time

I would strongly defend an 25x on FRE (excluding perf income, which should be 8-12x). What is the issue with it? These are mostly permanent / semi-permanent long duration, high margin, recurring fee streams with little churn. In branded, institutionalized platforms. Growing annuities - bare minimum FRE growth is 10%+ for the next 5 years, and more likely 15-30%. Is that better or worse than the avg SPX company?

Not saying this is the Asset Mgmt bottom, but a company like $KKR at today's prices just seems like it's bound to generate strong returns the next 5-10 years. I know Brookfield is the favorite of many, but KKR has an amazingly strong culture and getting near a 40% NAV discount.

@respeculator Traditionally you make money buying cyclicals on high multiples and low earnings not low multiples on high earnings?

Santos $STO.AX - A$20bn, 120mboe/yr - was $30/boe margin so 5.5x.. now maybe $60/boe margin so half that, long life assets and all that. Woodside $WDS.AX - A$50bn, 250mboe/yr.. same story as above af A$60/boe is A$15bn earnings so A$50bn seems v cheap

@Hybridathlete I think it should be doable

If a 200lb man drinks 2 light beers every hour for 48 hours, their BAC would be roughly 1%. -0.08% is the legal limit -0.20% is likely blacked out -0.30% is likely unconscious -0.40% will kill most -0.50% will kill all but the most talented alcoholics So no, it is not doable.

@DKThomp Yeah no shit and this applies across every field also, act accordingly

I really want people to see the story above the story here, which is that whether you're reading Citrini, or listening to Jamie Dimon at a cocktial party, the conversation about AI is a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives. That's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick. But rather that the level of uncertainty is so high, and the quality and supply of real-world, real-time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so paltry, that very serious conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical. And I think that observation sets up another important point: I feel lucky to be able to have conversations about the frontier of AI with executives and builders at frontier labs; economists at AI conferences; investors in AI; and other AI folks at off-the-record dinners where important truths can theoretically be shared without risk. I can't emphasize enough that "nobody knows anything" is about as close to the reality here as three words are going to get you. Nobody what's going to happen this year, or next year, or the year after that. There is no secret cigar-filled room of people who have unique access to some authentic postcard from the future. When you drill down underneath the bluster, the boosterism, the fear, the anxiety, what's there at the bottom is genuine uncertainty, a vacuum into which storytelling is flooding. The frontier labs don't really know what they're building exactly, and economists don't really know how to model the thing they claim they're building (genuine recursively self-improving AI agency isn't really analogous to something we know about). I wish more people talked about and thought about this subject thru that sort of lens: We're trying to model the economy-wide effects of a technology whose properties the frontier labs can't even really describe yet. Whatever you think about AI today, be prepared to change your mind soon.

@puppyeh1 Have you read when genius failed? Best finance book in my opinion

Just finished Lowenstein’s Buffett book (“The Making of an American Capitalist”) and it is fantastic. Lowenstein could make gardening a great narrative, he’s such a good writer. Particularly loved his characterization of Buffett as a prodigy/savant akin to Mozart, or Picasso, painting a ‘canvas’ with his investments over the course of his life. Highly recommended ✌🏻

@quantian1 Yep all Aus Shiraz is total boomer trash and I am from there. Giaconda Chardonnay worth a look albeit only if you’re more mersault than puligny

The nation and people of so-called “Australia” are found GUILTY of producing COOKED BOOMERSLOP. I sentence them to 5,000% wine tariffs under the glorious Trump regime!

@jwalkermobile Roulot -> Tondonia -> Yquem

What’re you up for?

@TimurNegru That would cost more in DTLA

Someone explain to me why we are fighting for tiny city apartments when ALL THIS is available for €265k ($311k): - 263m² Spanish villa (2,832 sq ft) - 800 grapevines + winery - 300 avocado trees - 12,577m² of farmland (3.1 acres)

@0xRacist Deserves the views

This video has 12 billion views on ig

@teamhrc Traditionally a cheap negoce…maybe vintage and plot shining through? Some of them are getting pretty good plus converting to estate

From a producer I’ve never heard of…Just Fantastic

@dtmorgan18 Yes of course?

A broker I swore I would never do business with after he did me dirty, just called me to tell me the seller of a development site I offered on years ago would probably accept my offer if I resubmitted. This property was always the one that got away. Do I push my pride aside and do the deal?

@BoringBiz_ Reading these replies is fucking depressing I should’ve been a doctor

Genuinely curious what answer people have for this question I have heard great things about family office. Great pay with work life balance, but it really depends on the firm Believe long only asset management is another sweet spot, but tough gig to land

@rhunterh 👋 fellow long suffering shareholder

DigitalBridge $DBRG "chatter" Over/Under $15

@joepohlen @moseskagan That’s a shocker! I’ve always thought of naming the acquisition headco entity to sound like the biggest mark out there, like Phil’s Pinball and Kodak Shop LLC or something

I was 22 and started a company with my friend Nick to buy a rundown duplex in a tough part of town. We named the company ‘Nick and Joe get Rich, LLC’ The tenants had to write checks to that account. They didn’t think it was funny. City inspector had to see the name when handling our violations. He didn’t think it was funny…

Choose a naming convention for your LLCs & stick to it. Otherwise, by mid career, you & your team will spend your lives trying to recall if it’s “123 N. ABC St, LLC” or “123 North ABC St., LLC” or “123 ABC Street, LLC”. Guess how I learned this.

@AdviserCounsel @bradford_hardin @EllliotttB I was here to say it will be in bitcoin terms or some bullshit can’t believe it actually was haha

@bradford_hardin @EllliotttB New formula apparently! Lol

If you enjoyed destroying lives from globalism, you are going to *love* what happens from protectionism

@jambazzombie Need this

@rhunterh Nice one, high profile gig! Looking forward to a listen

Am I becoming Apollo Guy? Regardless, this was a lot of fun to record. Impossible to distill all the facets of a company like Apollo into this format, but we focused on how the cultural imprint of Drexel lives on today and the company's attraction to complexity.

@jsynergy Bad google?

For those that don’t have access to Grok 3 yet, I asked “what US markets are showing declining apartment rents in 2025,” using the deep research function, and no follow up questions: x.com/i/grok/share/Z…

@EllliotttB All of Asia in the 00s post currency crisis. Give it 20yrs might resolve

I used to go to turkey every summer when I was younger and one of the most vivid memories I have of those trips, and the feature I identify most with emerging markets generally because it's so visible, is incomplete construction projects