Peter

Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).

I'm making some moves again. Watched $SIVE from the sidelines cause my platform didn't offer it. On this dip I've decided to make a big transfer from one platform to another to start a position. However, for some reason, humans can't make transfers over the weekend even if it's 2026, so I'll probably be set to make my first purchase when the dip has been bought up already. Anyways, I'm coming for you $SIVE.

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.

The market is waking up in real-time. Swedish microcap Sivers Semiconductors ( $SIVE ) has surged recently, but at a ~$325M market cap, the fundamental disconnect is still staggering. 🧵👇 If you are looking for a weekend research project at the intersection of AI hardware, Geopolitics, and 6G, put this on your watchlist. For months, the stock chart was broken by a major shareholder’s forced liquidation (margin calls). But if you look past the temporary liquidity crunch and read the actual industry white papers, a completely different picture emerges. Sivers is positioned right in the middle of three massive macro shifts: 1. The "Pax Silica" Base (Defense & SATCOM) 🛡️🛰️The West is actively moving critical tech infrastructure away from Eastern dependencies. - Dual CHIPS Act Awards: Sivers has secured multiple US Gov grants to co-develop secure FR3/6G, SATCOM, and Electronic Warfare tech alongside Ericsson, BAE Systems, and Raytheon. - The Satellite Backbone: They provide the core RF chips for commercial LEO/MEO networks (validated by Viasat & AllSpace) AND the upcoming multi-billion European sovereign constellation (IRIS²). - Thesis to research: This division provides the industrial baseline and limits the downside risk. 2. The AI Growth Engine (Photonics) ⚡ Datacenters are hitting a power wall. The transition from copper to Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Linear Receive Optics (LRO) is mandatory. - Sivers is the last independent pure-play Indium Phosphide (InP) laser foundry left after NVIDIA bought up the legacy supply chain. - They are powering Fortune 500 giant Jabil’s new 1.6T LRO transceivers (just showcased at OFC 2026) and mass-producing ELS modules with O-Net. - Thesis to research: They are the critical "picks and shovels" arms dealer for the non-NVIDIA AI ecosystem. 3. The Free Call Option (Biosensing) ⌚🩸 Sivers has an ongoing biosensing project with an unnamed Fortune 100 customer. The heavy industry rumor? Customized lasers for non-invasive blood glucose monitoring in wearables. - Thesis to research: Physics here are brutally hard, and it might be years away. But at a $325M valuation, this potential infinite-TAM project is currently priced at exactly $0. Conclusion for your DD: The stock is ripping as smart money absorbs the forced selling and realizes the underlying value. Don't take my word for it—read the OCI Consortium mandates, Ericsson's 6G white paper, and the US CHIPS Act grants. When you separate the temporary chart damage from the actual Tier-1 hardware adoption, this might be one of the most asymmetric Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) setups in the market right now. DYOR. $SIVE $SIVEF $ERIC $RTX $JBL $AVGO $POET

I’m surprised markets aren’t pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA. By $CRCL and $COIN. From Global Markets Head at Circle: "Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments with a total transaction volume of 43 million US dollars. Among these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average transaction amount of only 0.31 US dollars." Card networks and % fee payment processors like $PYPL are likely going to be cooked?