Will Con

@DaveTaylorNews So like $5m usd. Very underpaid it seems relative to the US

@AvidCommentator Albo a political albo. He will do whatever is required

Labor trails One Nation in 2PP terms on this estimate. Starmer was forced to slash migration by the polls, as was Trudeau/Carney, at this rate, when does Albo join their ranks.

@plebcapital 100% have severe or profound disability! Incredible. There’s 0 fraud or mild autism.

@williamslack1 dataresearch.ndis.gov.au/explore-data

Better hope you don’t accidentally break your neck.

@PeteWargent Latest RBA models bumping up NAIRU from 4.5% salt the median to 4.9%. Even with some slight downward judgement from the board we still well off. Pretty worrying times. AI boom perhaps the only saviour

@williamslack1 seem to be heading that way

April LFS for Aus due out this week Median mkt forecast is for employment +17.5k and unemployment rate holding at just 4.3pc

@patrol5513 @DemoniacoASX Investing in shares carries risk. You might win or lose. Yet if you win; you basically pay the same tax rate as risk free labour income. 😂

@DemoniacoASX Number go up Number go down Investing in shares carries risk? Not a huge difference considering the run it has had.

$CBA down $25bn market cap today CGT and Neg gearing changes are expected to save $3.6bn - $4bn over 4 years.

@MickamiousG PPOR

So guys honestly, What can we actually invest with and not be ripped sideways in tax ?? Crypto < Taxed Stocks < Taxed Minerals < Taxed ETFs < Taxed Honestly, where the hell you meant to make any coin without being ripped?

@AvidCommentator @noreasonspec Nominal spending rising 5.3% next FY as opposed to 3.1% in MYEFO. So my guess is no. Real spending is up!

@noreasonspec I'm not sure, its going to do a fair job sapping confidence and spending, but that is perhaps more of a subjective thing and how that is weighted is open to interpretation.

Is the RBA going to like this budget @AvidCommentator ?

@Scutty 100% Close the loopholes but the 47% rate should not be kicking it at less than 2x the average wage when it’s more like 4/5x average income on the OECD average

Would be ideal to have a far flatter income tax structure and lower capital gains tax, with the trade off being deductions and loopholes are closed. Tax implications should not be a major determinant when choosing whether to work or where best to invest.

@TMFScottP Are you nuts? You don’t think risk capital should be taxed lower than risk free capital?

I've said there's no justification for taxing capital gains more generously than earned income. But there's also no justification for taxing capital gains *less generously* than earned income. The 30% minimum CGT tax rate does just that. Madness. #Budget2026

@TheKouk Just a few months ago the government estimated its spending in the coming year would be $811bn. Now that is seen $18bn higher, at $830bn. Five months ago the nominal increase in spending in the coming year was estimated to be 3.1% now it’s 5.3%. Positive in real terms!

@TheKouk Real spending was up! So much for fiscal restraint. More taxes and more spending!

“It’s a fine line between pleasure and pain” Divinyls Treasurer Jim Chalmers had walked a political tightrope across the canyons of fiscal repair, short term cost of living assistance, snail’s pace growth in real government spending which will all help push inflation lower and unfurl a carpet bag of serious steps towards fairness via a medley of tax policy changes. In the forecasts by Treasury that underpin the budget, there are significant differences from the forecasts released by the RBA just last week. The RBA, somewhat recklessly, timed its May board meeting appaulingly. It had limited if any knowledge of what are critical and economy-important policies in the budget. The Treasury forecasts, which will almost certainly be superior to the already obsolete and pale efforts of the RBA, incorporated the budget decisions and are therefore suggestive of economic growth being more resilient, for inflation to be lower and sooner, and the unemployment rate to be lower. I wonder if Treasury Secretary Jenny Wilkinson, who would have knowg the thrust of the budget settings when the RBA met last week, was the dissenting voice in the 8 to 1 vote to hike interest rates? Kudos to her if she was, and a brickbat to the RBA for not only the timing of the meeting but for not listening to the all important themes that the government was set to deliver. Suffice to say, in the budget there is a tightening in fiscal policy, plus a raft of reforms that will add to the productivity recovery already underway.  As a result, Treasury is seeing a lower inflation climate that the RBA in both the short and the medium term. Oh, and net migration is targeted to fall to just 225,000, further easing pressure on housing and wages. While global events remain mercurial, this budget should deliver a big prick to the inflation outlook and as a result, see the market gradually adjust to a glidepath of steady monetary policy for a few months at least. youtube.com/watch?v=Zq55OW…

@bozzb13 @PeteWargent About to learn about the world of unintended consequences!

@williamslack1 @PeteWargent Same people that build in 50s and 60s mate , landlords think they are some sort of special breed and irreplaceable, this is what happens when you think your smarter then you really are

limiting negative gearing for residential property to new builds from July next year

@TheKouk Just make the tax rate 100% then if it doesn’t matter? Such a business would be super capital intensive, and likely need access to international capital markets… good luck with that!

I've got this great but, as yet, untested idea to set up a company to make cheap autonomous vehicles. I wonder what tax rate I will pay when I sell it? (says no one)

@kit_lowe @TheKouk 1% of GDP means nothing if GDP growth is 3% per year. It means a little more if we are growing 1% a year.

Yes I know its about 1.2% of GDP. But your not interested in actually paying down any debt? You don't think it crowds out corporate borrowing? Maybe look at combined State and Fed Govt borrowing. Hint Victoria is headed to $200bn in gross debt by itself. Westpac forecasts Federal gross debt at $1.257bn by 2029.

Treasurer Chalmers needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat at tonight's #Budget2026 #auspol None of the Big Australian banks are forecasting a budget surplus in the forseeable future in fact it's deficits as far as the eye can see. Australian budget deficit forecasts. The average of ANZ, CBA and Westpac’s forecasts for the forward budget deficits. 2026 - $30bn 2027 - $29.4bn 2028 -$33.2bn 2029 -$32.4bn 2030 -$33.3bn Total $158.3bn

@some0nethere @samstrades @cryptoderrp Sam totally delusional. Can’t be done on resi in the US, but failing to mention that our income tax rates are very high here relative to the average or medium income. Top tax bracket kicking in at less than 2x the average income and more like 4-5x across the OECD

@samstrades @cryptoderrp Thats not true at all

CGT changes being extended to other asset classes is a mistake, real estate is shelter, makes sense to minimise/punish speculation, but not start up/risk capital, NG should be made more generous for new builds as well Taxing trusts is a good decision (trusts for tax avoidance up from 50k in 1970s to nearly a million today); source: the Australian #ausbiz #Budget

@TheKouk @AntipodeanMacro It’s about to roll over. Rates on the up, construction prices up, dwelling prices down. Potential changes to negative gearing. Not a good mix.

Here is a lovely chart showing the pipeline of new housing supply - it looks like there will be a dwelling construction boom as these approvals are built. Supply is set to lift strongly. Chart via @AntipodeanMacro

@taipan168 As based in the north shore - public transport is the best way to get into the city. Day rate parking in Martin place now $40+ per day for early bird.

I read somewhere that the definition of a truly civilised place is where everybody, including wealthy people, takes public transport, and Sydney has achieved this to a large extent.