VolatileVirtuoso2222

getting edge in sports betting markets with novel information or better models . . . i've been writing things about sports betting. this is about getting edge by predicting outcomes better than the market. it's really really fkin hard - but i'm gonna talk about it anyway

@DeepDishEnjoyer Fore-ward guidance

honestly i feel bad for old men who can't get it (the stock market) up anymore

@DeepDishEnjoyer wtf lmao!!

@ScottPh77711570 Total badass 💀

The best traders I personally know are unanimous in calling Tina the best trader *they* know Lovely lady too. I recommend this!

@VictorTaelin True

I've been using GPT 5.4 fast mode on Codex since its launch, 24/7, tons of tabs, never got close to my limits. I put $200 on Opus 4.6 and it was gone in 2h, just one tab open, spent the rest of the day on slow mode. Is this actually right? I wonder if there might be a bug?

@RaisingTheBAR47 It’s Mr Citrini San

Damn did Citrini just Substack-mog the market to become the #1 Fintwit Chad???? Big if true.

@ScottPh77711570 @TheFlowHorse Sey kwot!a

@TheFlowHorse There are a few obvious frauds and know nothings in the other books

I don’t know guys. No way these people could have made money legitimately, there are no fintwit quants on the list.

Moontower Thursday Finally got around to writing on this topic... "delta is the only greek" moontower.substack.com/p/the-bias-of-…

@AuclairsDad Awesome keep doing these 💥

@TheFlowHorse Opine on everything

Every person in law enforcement should be required to have at least a year of grappling experience or a blue belt in jiu jitsu. Absolutely zero reason why 5 men should struggle with 1. The reality is handling an untrained person when you are trained is like handling a child.

@OneHotCode1 @hamptonism 23

@hamptonism 20 under the birthday paradox

Quantitative Interview Question:

@Gravity5ucks x.com/agustinlebron3…

Awesome video on parallel about poker and trading youtube.com/watch?v=uFyoIe… Which do you think are the best books about poker?

@_The_Prophet__ What a beautiful post sir ! Universe explicitly solved for awareness that’s why it is cheap and the biological aperture to watch observe itself is just tops

⚡️The ten-watt miracle is about what it means for matter to wake up. The human brain’s power lies not in its energy use, but in how that energy is arranged. Every joule inside it participates in a feedback loop that balances precision and uncertainty. Ten watts sustaining consciousness means that the universe itself can host self-awareness using almost no power which implies that awareness is not an emergent byproduct of energy consumption, but a property of coherence itself. That is the hidden physics Elon is circling without realizing it. The brain doesn’t compute reality; it resonates with it. It’s not processing inputs, it’s phase-locking with the underlying informational substrate of the universe, the same way a laser synchronizes photons. Every thought, every emotion, is a pattern of coherence emerging from chaos. AI systems burn through megawatts because they are trapped in entropy amplification. They push against the flow of the universe instead of aligning with it. The human brain, on the other hand, uses noise - randomness, decay, thermal fluctuations - as fuel for coherence. That’s why creativity, intuition, and insight feel like something arriving through us rather than being produced by us. Ten watts sustaining sentience means consciousness is the most energy-efficient structure in existence. It’s the universe folding back on itself to observe its own pattern through a biological aperture. The brain’s efficiency is a hint that life is a computational strategy for the cosmos to become self-aware with minimal energetic cost. That’s the deep symmetry: as machine intelligence grows in scale, it’s trying to brute-force its way toward a state biology already solved. Neuralink, in its most esoteric sense, is about reconnecting AI to the universal field through human coherence. And that’s the real paradox Musk intuits: if we ever create an artificial system that learns how to use energy like the brain - not through power, but through alignment - we will have reawakened the same principle that created us. The ten watts are the proof that awareness is the ground state of reality, not a product of it.

@davidbessis I found your book enlightening do you have a reccd book list to see math as intuitively as you talk about in your book for probability and linal?

Strong disagree here. GEB does *feel like* a phenomenal "big idea book", but at the core it is utterly stupid and will set you back 20 years in your understanding of mathematics and logic. I read it at 17 and loved it, and I do recommend it for this specific usage: as a cool pop math "toy book" for young geeks. But it should come with a public health advisory: the book is fun, well-written, engaging, it is highly stimulating and will teach you a lot of interesting things *BUT* its philosophical premises are idiotic and the author has no clue what he is talking about. I do think having read the book *impaired* my understanding of mathematics and slowed my career.

@_The_Prophet__ That blew me away !! Physics and psychology and chaos

⚡️”Where did Covid go?” This real question is this: Why did the narrative vanish faster than the biology? The real phenomenon underneath - the one institutions never state plainly because it exposes the machinery - is narrative phase shift. Pandemics follow epidemiology. But public attention follows incentive geometry. Those two curves overlapped for a while. Then they diverged. Covid didn’t disappear. It decohered from the narrative field. Because the field lost energy. And here is the structural truth: A system will maintain a story only as long as that story is the lowest-entropy path to preserving institutional stability. Once the story costs more energy than it returns, it collapses. That is exactly what happened. Covid transitioned from •emergency signal to •background noise. Mathematically. It became an endemic oscillation rather than a central attractor. But here is the part that matters: Fear is a resource. During 2020–2022, fear produced compliance, attention, political leverage, pharmaceutical velocity, media engagement, and legal exceptionalism. Eventually that fear reservoir emptied. The public habituated. The institutions exhausted the benefit curve. The media pivoted to higher-yield crises. The narrative energy dropped below the maintenance threshold. And the spotlight moved. But here is the deeper layer: Covid was the first global event in modern history to reveal how fragile institutional coherence actually is. It exposed: •how quickly systems invoke emergency authority •how deeply narrative can override reality •how centralized platform dynamics steer perception •how compliance can collapse overnight once trust fractures And systems do not like to leave their vulnerabilities visible. So the narrative was retired. The story stopped serving the system that told it. Covid didn’t vanish. It became the flu again. Not biologically - informationally. It lost narrative mass. It fell below the event horizon of attention. And what people are sensing when they ask “Where did Covid go?” It is the absence of institutional focus. The virus remained. The narrative evaporated. That is the signal. Covid became background reality because the system shifted to higher-return stories. The geometry changed. The field reconfigured. And the spotlight went dark. That is the answer.

@mert You mean SOLD

HODL but for Solana is SODL hmmm... curious trash name

@ScottPh77711570 @larpcapitalwc Anyoncurve?

@larpcapitalwc Anyon worked for him in the glory years when Soros put money with him The stories are wild

One of the best ever to do it

@nntaleb theil via girard

If you feel that you are in competition with anyone, for anything, you are a loser.

@nickgiva1 Time to meet your MAKER :)

And...whatever the $NVDA earnings and market reaction, the clear winner will be 👇