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@zeroxpectation

Your eyes & ears on the ground. Provide under-the-radar insights & overlooked analysis. Read boring reports & transcripts, & listen to calls so u don't have to

Global Katılım Mart 2017
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L@zeroxpectation·
@ns123abc 6 out of 9 directors seem to be Taiwanese or have Taiwanese root. Why would they sell to China? Who exactly do they work for?
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NIK@ns123abc·
🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…
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National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice@DOJNatSec

Three Charged with Conspiring to Unlawfully Divert Cutting Edge U.S. Artificial Intelligence Technology to China “The indictment unsealed today details alleged efforts to evade U.S. export laws through false documents, staged dummy servers to mislead inspectors, and convoluted transshipment schemes, in order to obfuscate the true destination of restricted AI technology—China,” said John A. Eisenberg, Assistant Attorney General for National Security. “These chips are the product of American ingenuity, and NSD will continue to enforce our export-control laws to protect that advantage.” 🔗: justice.gov/opa/pr/three-c…

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L@zeroxpectation·
@varunv_malhotra Nice wall picture! Which basketball is that?
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Monitor software sector via Visma results Nordic-based ERP serial acquirer FY ARR+19%, ebitda+18%; Q4 even higher orgnc grwth: SMB +13%, Public 7% despite tight budget 91% SaaS 28 M&As: Europe, LatAm 1st M&A in Brazil, 6 yrs after $CSU sold 2 biz, reinvest in core What AI risk?
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ma26nu@man26uel·
@AcquirerHQ No, maybe half of that, somewhere in the 5x. Check capitalized R&D etc. Vitec uses cEBIT, which is, ofc, ex tax/interests. Don't trust the scanners.
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L@zeroxpectation·
After attending an AI event today, I’m revisiting my seat- vs usage-based pricing thesis. Most enterprise software still leans on seat-based pricing, hedging cloud costs via add-ons—especially for AI features. It’s essentially a hybrid model. The seat-based risks may be overblown
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L@zeroxpectation·
@MikeFritzell I haven’t seen broad-based buying yet. I’m also not sure there are insiders sitting on large idle cash piles. If anything, meaningful insider buying would likely be tied to stock options, which seems unlikely until KPIs reset.
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L@zeroxpectation·
$VHI -10% 40% rule: not there yet, target 28 ebitda+12 growth 40% depends on org growth & cost take-outs AI-related rev only from 2H26 still figuring out "new" pricing to offset rising AI cost NHS reorg takes a few more qtrs to normalize limited churn: no AI risk valuation> $CSU
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L@zeroxpectation·
$RACE continues to decline, after the company suspended Middle East deliveries due to conflict-driven logistics disruptions. While air shipments continue, the pause impacts a region that received 626 vehicles (4.6% total) in 2025. I'm getting more excited by the day.
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L@zeroxpectation·
$ACN $5b+ for M&A 2026 buy subscription & licensing biz w/o need to hire more tight small project spend, but well funded mega projs 1 in 2 advanced AI projs led to data modernization projs managed services outperform proj-based work US federal biz drag: 1-2% impact on N.A. growth
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L@zeroxpectation·
@skysoxk I think they're on track.
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L@zeroxpectation·
$CSU Vela LatAm buys 3 Brazilian companies Alfasig, Alpino Tecnologia, & ERP Praeter, which specialize in solutions for issuing, receiving, & managing electronic tax documents. $CSU has acquired over 20 companies in Brazil.
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L@zeroxpectation·
As a long-term investor, I’ve learned that fundamentals-driven valuation doesn’t always capture narratives that can reshape a company’s long-term growth trajectory. The key is separating signal from noise, and differentiating between overreaction & underreaction.
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Success depends as much on mindset as it does on tech. 4 AI agent archetypes: smart sidekicks, always-on monitors, orchestration agents, & workhorses. Sharing successes across portfolio companies helps overcome the natural human reluctance to change—something $CSU also does well.
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Vista Equity Partners founder Robert Smith: The economic benefit of AI is orders of magnitude higher than the shift to cloud. He argues for value-based pricing over per-seat models, as AI-enabled seats are more productive. This shift expands the TAM as these technologies diffuse.
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L@zeroxpectation·
The US leads with 97% of stablecoins being dollar-backed. Trump aims for the US to be the crypto capital of the world to boost competitiveness. $COIN, a US public firm, custodies 12% of global crypto. This trust-based, regulated approach keeps innovation onshore.
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L@zeroxpectation·
Crypto isn’t my area of expertise—this is my attempt to understand it based on an interview with $COIN CEO Brian Armstrong, stepping outside my old-school fundamental investing comfort zone. Happy to be corrected if I’m off.
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L@zeroxpectation·
China launched the digital yuan as a central bank digital currency, which the government views as a tool for control. While Chinese citizens are excited about decentralised crypto, the state fears losing authority. They advocate for a controlled system instead of private coins.
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Armstrong argues that centralized & decentralized components must coexist in the crypto ecosystem to create an open, functional financial system.
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Early on, crypto attracted bad actors, creating reputational issues. Armstrong argues it is safer than cash for preventing financial crime as it utilizes a public ledger. $COIN uses blockchain analytics to help law enforcement track illicit activities rapidly.
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L@zeroxpectation·
USDC offer fast, cheap, global payment rails superior to traditional systems. At $COIN, AI is so essential, with 50% of code being AI-generated. Armstrong highlights "agentic commerce," where AI agents now use stablecoins to autonomously manage travel and many business tasks.
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Armstrong envisions it as an "everything exchange" for all asset classes, including stocks and commodities. The firm currently custodies 12% of global crypto, serving reputable global institutions.
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