
DMacMil
12.5K posts

DMacMil
@Dmacmill5
Father, husband, business professional, Hunter and angler, ex pro athlete, Speaker of truth and seeker of truth









"she was 4 years old & called Lamar.. when they found her body she'd been decapitated. Her mother was killed with her" @AlexCrawfordSky reporting from Lebanon


The Democrat Party exists now to make America into a third world country. It is the mass looting of a civilization.







JUST IN: 🇺🇸 121 empty oil tankers are now heading to the United States as President Trump urges countries hit by Strait of Hormuz disruption to buy American energy.











There are two oil markets. The one on your screen says $104. The one that matters says $154. Brent crude futures, the benchmark every headline quotes, traded at $102.41 per barrel on April 13, up 7.6 percent on the Hormuz blockade announcement. WTI traded at $104.13, up 7.8 percent. These are paper contracts. Financial instruments traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange for future delivery. They are not barrels of oil. They are bets on barrels of oil. The physical oil market tells a different story. Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical North Sea cargoes assessed daily by S&P Global Platts, reached $131.97 before the blockade and surged further since. Forties Blend, its primary physical component, hit $147. Dubai crude, the benchmark pricing every barrel flowing to Asia, traded at $126 to $140. Oman crude traded at a $50 premium to Brent futures. Saudi Aramco set Arab Light at a record $19.50 premium to the Oman/Dubai average. The gap between the price the world sees and the price the world pays is $37 to $50 per barrel. Before the war, this gap was less than one dollar. This is the physical market telling the financial market that the crisis is worse than the screen implies. Refiners in South Korea, Japan, India, and China are bidding up cargoes because actual barrels available for loading in the Gulf are scarce, insurable routes are shrinking, and every cargo near Hormuz carries war, mine, and blockade risk that no futures contract captures. The basis blowout is already inside the American economy. Diesel at $5.64 per gallon is priced off physical crude, not futures. Trucking rates at $2.97 per mile are priced off diesel. The March CPI energy component, up 10.9 percent in a single month, is priced off what refiners actually paid for barrels, not what traders bet on screens. Every inflation model calibrated to Brent or WTI futures is systematically underestimating the cost passthrough from this war by $37 to $50 per barrel. The Fed watches futures. Refiners buy physical. The gap between the two is the gap between what the Fed thinks inflation is and what inflation actually is. But the deepest signal in the basis is temporal, not spatial. When the ceasefire was announced on April 8, Brent futures dropped. Physical prices did not. The physical market looked at the ceasefire and did not believe it. Traders who buy actual barrels for actual refineries, who stake real capital on whether ships will reach port, kept their bids at war premiums while the futures market celebrated. Four days later, the Islamabad talks collapsed. The physical market was right. The financial market was wrong. The basis differential was not just a price gap. It was a prediction. And it predicted the failure of diplomacy before the diplomats sat down. The price on your screen is not the price of oil. It is the price of a contract about oil. The price of oil is $37 to $50 higher, assessed daily by Platts from actual trades between actual buyers, and it is already in the diesel, already in the freight rate, already in the CPI, and already telling anyone who reads it that this war is not priced. The screen says $104. The barrel says $154. The gap between them is the size of the lie the market is telling itself. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


The U.S. military said it killed two people in a strike on an alleged drug-trafficking boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Monday, bringing the death toll to at least 170 since strikes began last September. cbsn.ws/4sAZjgS











