Adrian Chan

@kafkahibino727 @pandawatch88 Exactly E-commerce is a profit killer

@adcha91 @pandawatch88 its also about profitability though , the big tech in hk has less profits due to e-commerce and food delivery involution , mainland based wfe firms are growing their revenue and net income at a rapid pace

Mainland tech vs HK tech.

@pandawatch88 How the f*** is that possible I thought liquor is a license to print money?

Wuliangye restating 2025 revenue down by half, and share price just down 8%. "We thought we had sold it because we got the cash", and you know, fair. Imagine the Chairmen at peer companies, sweating, waiting for the knock on the door (Wuli chairman was taken away already last month). Until the share price hits 50 I have no interest to look into the details of the revised accounting rules on the restatement.

@MayoMainz Wow, and he's not afraid of getting into trouble with the police?

Had a rarer Chinese taxi unc conversation today. In a 30 minute discussion he... Praised: 1. Heshen 2. Cixi 3. North Korea 4. The Kims specifically on the grounds of being dynastic 5. The KMT (1926-1949) Criticized: 1. Qin Shi Huang 2. The CCP 3. The KMT (1911-1926) 4. Israel

@joequant What, you didn't realize you were being scammed all along? 🫨

Is that I honestly wonder whether *I* was scammed. So I ended up working for an investment bank, because I really, honestly, genuinely believed that I was doing good things for the common man, and if turn out that this was all a lie to make a few people rich then frick off.

Exactly. One reason I feel scammed is that I've always been supportive of communist *goals* (i.e. workers of the world unite). It was just that in the 1980's, it seemed that Ronald Reagan would achieve communist goals better than Mao Zedong. The goal of socialism is worker

@AngelicaOung Don't the Chengguan have an infamous reputation? I try to be apolitical but there's plenty of evidence of brutality

Something like this happened to me in Nanjing. I was on my phone while walking and rolled my ankle in a crack in the pavement. A city worker leapt like a panther, made sure I was OK, then took a photo of the crack and then he showed me that he uploaded it and told me it’s going to be fixed.

@joequant Are you talking about the economic situation in the US, HK, or mainland China? I think they're in different circumstances

The thing that worries me is that if the economy is supposed to be booming how come everything sucks. If people can't find jobs in the middle of the AI tech boom, then what happens when the AI boom crashes. The obvious question is "so who is making the money."

@RussianTrollCap Lol

6-12 months before military coup attempt IMO unless SMO ends soon.

@pandawatch88 I hope you didn't lose too much money

To help us visualize potential pain ahead, let's look at recent examples of massive investment craze leading to bottlenecks, and what happens after. Covid is a good example: -big pocket bluechip pharmas developing and manufacturing vaccines like crazy, antivirals, etc, revenue flushing in, capacities expanding, every pharma service provider hired, equipment suppliers backlog full etc -add to this all the associated hot VC money going into biotech investment in mRNA on other modalities after the next big thing Wuxi Apptec was a big beneficiary of all this spending: -2020 revenue up 28% -2021 up 38% -2022 up 71%, accelerating all the way -growing margins through pricing power: 2022 GP up 75% in 2022 and NI up 100% When did share price peak? In 2021, at 100x PE. Well ahead of their best massive year which was 2022. Well ahead of peak margins. People looked not one but two years ahead, and were correct. What happened? Share price down 50% in 2022, even as profit doubled. Then a further 60% down over the following 18 months, over 2023 and 2024, as profit flatlined (note profit didn't even come down). There were also some specific geopolitical issues on the name too. But big picture still holds. We can only stretch the Covid and Wuxi analogy so far. Don't reply with an essay on why "AI buildup is not like covid", I know. So, as you look at your gains, what may decide their future is not 2026 FY results, nor the nice 2027 bullish hyperscaler capex predictions, but actually the general mood about what's going to happen with 2028 earnings. Because if by 2H26 the market starts to sniff 2028 could be flat vs 2027 (not even contract, AI is not going away, but are today's pricing power and bottlenecks lasting for 2 more years?) we could move down quickly. Or maybe not, who knows. Sleep well my bull.

@TheGrouchHK @haileyhmt Only if you have a HKSAR Passport

@haileyhmt Hongkongers are citizens of the PRC...

im filling out an interview form, and seeing multiple questions asking things like ‘are you citizen of chinese, including hong kong?’ and ‘do you have customers in china, including hong kong?’ already made me deeply uneasy as a hongkongese im literally shaking while filling it in

@CleansedTweets Great holiday! Did you take any time off work?

Here's my ride while in Yangshuo. 7 USD a day. Electric. Having one of these changes your holiday for the better. Interestingly, the renter didn’t ask for my ID or deposit and just handed it to me. This has been the case in Xiamen and Sanya too when I have rented a bike. They just say “here you go” and you take the bike. High trust society? There are no cameras here in the mountains.

@Temjinck @AvidCommentator Do you have a second PR/Citizenship? I'm seriously considering relocating

My wife and I have been discussing this for a while. Why the fook do we want to stay here and get taxed to hell? I'm working on a start-up, and this budget announcement, if true, will shatter my dream. I cannot and will not allow the government to take 47% of my business value if it ever becomes successful when exiting. I took all the risk and the government took none, why do they deserve half of it?

I was recently talking with a mate who is considering leaving Australia. They said "If I'm going to be a stranger in a strange land that I don't recognise, I'd rather it not be here." I wonder how prevalent this viewpoint is among other 2nd generation Australians.

@AngelicaOung Correct, so make sure that you have a plan B.

Ok…so the fact that I’m an American citizen, born in Santa Barbara, lived for most of my adult life in the states…recoded a country song in Nashville…none of that happened as soon as I became critical of American foreign policy. Asian Americans be on notice: your American-ness is only contingent after all.

@pandawatch88 Hey! Don't diss Charles, it's my favourite pick!

Related to my earlier post on Apptec and Bioscure, below list of Chinese companies by US revenue exposure (courtesy of MS). Pharma services is a big one. Puts a ceiling on allocations imo. Being services, with a clear end client, neither Chinese seller or US buyer can hide from regulations, the way for example industrials / components buyers and sellers can (a bit of transshipment here, a bit of selling to trading entity there, etc). If the US government takes a stake in Charles River a la Intel, and all the US pharmas show up in the press release praising the oh visionary leader, we'll have to buy some I guess.

@b3108 What? You mean HK PRs can't be deported?

🇭🇰🧑‍⚖️ | 8-May-2026 A HK-based expat who only yesterday pleaded guilty to leaving a restaurant & massage parlour without paying & was fined, is remanded in custody after facing court again on 4 more charges of leaving eateries without paying plus 2 property damage charges. 1/

@SantiagoAuFund @EmeraldRobinson @mcm_ct_usa Which ones?

@EmeraldRobinson @mcm_ct_usa You left a few countries out…

Ukraine made secret drone bases in Russia & destroyed 40% of Russia's nuclear bomber fleet of their triad. Israel did the same thing in Iran. China has already set up these drone bases inside the USA. Several defectors have already confirmed it.

@carlworker Australia & NZ are next

Political earthquake in the UK local elections. Nationalism rampant. New Green star on the left. Centrism gutted.

@carlworker Or self interest...

If true, an apparent significant act of leadership by China.

@macastel3 @georgecursor Which city is this?

@georgecursor it's literally me filming🤣

I read "Chinese models" and kept looking for the AI thing in this video. Okay I'm going to bed

@AngelicaOung When the US is truly enraged all gloves will come off

I’m a little more forgiving than Pati. Iran is obviously treading a fine line. They must hold the line but avoid humiliating the Americans too directly because they don’t know what a truly enraged United States is capable of.