Jerry Fernholz

@farzyness Facts. I would even add a four seat variant that competes with a 2-door Honda Civic.

People still actually think that I'm "trolling" or "doing it for clicks" when it comes to Cybercab with steering wheel and pedals. Let me restate my thesis for the 69th time - completely unchanged from the very beginning - to clear up any confusion: Tesla will be FORCED to sell a car with steering wheel and pedals that will be built on the Cybercab line - either a literal Cybercab or a Cybercab-like vehicle - because their production capacity will VASTLY OUTSTRIP the number of places they can physically drop the car - primarily due to regulation - during a massive cash burning phase for Optimus Bot and Terafab. Tesla's stated goal for Cybercab production is the same as the rest of the fleet combined - call it roughly 2 million units per year. Tesla will likely reach this sometime around 2027 into 2028. That's roughly 40,000 Cybercabs PER WEEK of production. Between here and then, there will be a VIOLENT RAMP - likely starting in the 2nd half of this year - where the number of Cybercabs Tesla will product per week will increase RAPIDLY week over week. This is called an S-curve ramp - where the first and last 20% of the ramp are very slow, and the middle 60% is insanely fast. So the question becomes - does Tesla have the technical capability, infrastructure capability, safety validation, and regulatory approval to align with the ramp? If you look at the current picture, the only state where there's a clear pathway for Tesla to dump Cybercabs anywhere they like is Texas. Yet Tesla's geofrence is quite limited as of today. But let's assume that by the end of next year, Tesla can operate anywhere in the three major metro areas of Dallas/Fort-Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. If you ask Grok for an estimate of PEAK Uber drivers in those 3 regions combined for the entire metro areas, it comes up with a number around 70,000. That is LESS THAN 2 WEEKS OF PRODUCTION OF CYBERCAB FULLY RAMPED. And that is assuming a) Tesla has completely and utterly displaced Uber in all those markets b) there's 0 regulatory/safety hurdles c) there's little to no lobbying effort from disrupted entities like Uber, Legacy Auto, Taxis, etc. And we're not even talking about the infrastructure build out needed for charging, servicing, cleaning, etc. What's the likelihood all of these will be ramped up to coincide with Tesla's explosive increase of the fleet? And so simply extrapolate this to the rest of the country and the world and ask yourself - what is the likelihood that Tesla's ramp of Cybercab without steering wheel and pedals will align with the ramp of all the needed approvals/validations/buildouts that would allow regions to ABSORB that many Cybercabs. But you know what solves this problem ENTIRELY and allows Tesla to run the Cybercab line AT FULL CAPACITY with 0 risk of anything slowing them down? SELLING IT WITH A STEERING WHEEL AND PEDAL. And then when regulation, safety, infrastructure, and validation is all aligned you simply a) yank the wheel and pedal for units you are producing to dump in those regions and b) customers can do the same for personal/Robotaxi use. Do you really think Tesla is going to find it acceptable to have a Cybercab line that is not running full tilt, burning cash for no reason - WHILE THEY ARE RAMPING BOT AND TERAFAB? ARE YOU GUYS ACTUALLY INSANE?!?!?!?!? It's so unbelievably obvious that this is going to happen, that it actually melts my brain that so many in the Tesla community are so unbelievably blind to this unbelievably obvious outcome. Unbelievable. Kiss the Ring. $TSLA

@wholemars That's only because it is soooo hot in Texas right now you're the only one outside.

Impressed with the sub 5 minute wait times for my first two driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin Texas

In the basement we used to joke protect SATCOM means an Iridium phone and a sidearm. This is great for the industry.

@mikepat711 @cmsinvests @XMoney Not really. What do you think the long run return on equity will be for $SPCX? I'm guessing the deposits will not be funding mortgages.

@cmsinvests @XMoney Seems weird for sure

Can someone explain to me how @XMoney can sustainably offer a 6% APY and not go bankrupt?

@JoeTegtmeyer We just drove from Los Angeles to Louisiana and saw a few trucks carrying Cybercabs in AZ and West Texas.

A few more views of Cybercabs getting picked up by transport trucks and leaving the site, clear indications of inventory swap out (I get asked this often) & even Cybercabs accumulating on the E side temp lot for the first time! Nice display Cybercab at the Direct Delivery Center today too! We see a Cybercab also departing the E factory exit point and a few others parked nearby. Have a great weekend!

@mikepat711 Have you been to South California in February 😎?

Pennsylvania is one of the most beautiful states in America. 5th most populous for a reason. I’ve been to most USA states and would live nowhere else.

@yunta_tsai Watch out for those skid marks 🤣 iykyk.

Watching Full Self-Driving doing evasive maneuvers feels like sitting in the cockpit watching first-person kung-fu movies.

@TechOperator 48,677 and only tires so far, not even washer fluid.

Now filming: The next and overdue installment of TechOperator Garage. Topic? EV Maintenance.

@wholemars I'm surprised you remember how to drive 🤣. What are all those noises BTW? It need Joe Mode.

First Drive with Universal Hands Free on the Rivian R2!

@wholemars No one. It's prehistoric as in pre-𝕏.

Who remembers?

@WorldlyReviewer @DirtyTesLa @jeremyjudkins_ The most entertaining outcome is the most probable.

@DirtyTesLa @jeremyjudkins_ knowing the stock market it will probably go up when the rockets crash and go down when they land on the moon and mars

Waiting for $SPCX to go under $135 so I can act smarter than everyone who bought the IPO.

@mikepat711 @SPCXTSLA This hits home. My wife is a classic bean counting MBA (I say this in most loving way possible) and she is currently building a gen-AI storybook app. The opportunity for people to create right now is amazing.

@SPCXTSLA ya why?

Grok Build has a team of agents doing market research for me in Florida with composer 2.5 while I sit here shitposting. 2026 is one of the most unique and epic years of my life so far.

@rhensing Same, and I'm not as patient as Omar to let it park and then re-park. One of our rental properties also has assigned parking spaces. That has to be way at the end of the long tail. "Hey Grok, park is space #44".

This right here. My longest steak is whatever my last drive was because the truck doesn’t know where or how to park at my house or my farm (usually) so I still have to disengage and park manually. I struggle to understand how Tesla solves this. Options I see are: 1. Some sort of recognition / long term memory for stored locations like home / work (ie you teach it once or twice where and how to park and it does the same from then on) 2. GUI selection of some sort to point to where you want it to go. But then how do you say “back up this hill and park close to the deck where the charger is” 3. Voice prompting using natural language.

@brandenflasch Elon will undoubtedly redeploy his wealth for the benefit of humanity. We don't need the gov't or anyone else to micromanage that redistribution.

It's wild how many people can't seem to understand that you can allow success without needing trillionaires. Maybe separating company control from ownership? The wealth should be with the employees of the company rather than so concentrated.

@SenAdamSchiff SpaceX has created wealth for thousands of its employees not to mention good paying jobs. Who have you created wealth for? What jobs have you created?

There is something terribly wrong about an economy that produces its first trillionaire, but cannot provide health care for its people. Or one in which the richest handful of families have the combined wealth of almost forty percent of the rest of the country. This is the cost of a corrupt system, where wealth perpetuates itself, and poverty, at the same time.

@striedinger Fun fact, if you have no other income, the first $98,900 (married) of long term capital gains is taxed at 0%. Keep your cashflow needs low and milk it.

How do I avoid paying taxes next year?

I’m at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV and am looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride: - thrilled to be involved - no clue how cars work - unsure if going to the park or getting neutered

@macjshiggins "Qualified Purchaser" 🤣

@wholemars I got one and my wife got one.

ayyyyyy got em

@wholemars Your aim is too low.

$SPCX to the moon