50byHalftime
5.8K posts

50byHalftime
@50byHalftime
"If you're too careful, your whole life can become a f**kin' grind" -Mike McDermott (Rounders) 8♠️9♠️ Football | Poker | Bitcoin | Tesla
United States เข้าร่วม Şubat 2022
308 กำลังติดตาม274 ผู้ติดตาม

@ACR_POKER I must need to go to bed: why is AQQJ winning the 2nd board — pair of queens vs pair of kings, no?
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@RedWavePress How about we just stop giving them money until they comply. Seems like a fairly simple solution.
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Stephen Miller: “We do NOT know the names of ANY SNAP recipient in the state of Minnesota. We just get a blank check. We have asked the state repeatedly and tried to compel the state unsuccessfully to turn over their SNAP enrollment rolls so we could ascertain such basic facts as, are these people even legally eligible to receive these benefits?”
“And the state has refused, absolutely, categorically refused, and in fact the state has spent millions of dollars in court for the singular purpose of trying to prevent the [federal government] from ascertaining the identity of a single SNAP recipient in the entire state of Minnesota.”
“Think about what this does to public trust, social trust, people's faith in the system program.”
Insanity!
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@nickshirleyy When is Tim Walz being arrested? You can start there.
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@NewsAsset We were promised a super cycle last cycle also.
The 4 year cycle remains undefeated.🏅
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@america So tired hearing about what you’re “going to do”.
Let me know when you’ve actually done something.😴
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@BitcoinIsaiah @hgxengineering Red march and red April. Bookmark this.
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🤯 WHAT A SPOT FOR @krissyb24poker!
With the @tritonpoker Jeju $100K Main Event down to 9 players, Foxen finds herself in a brutal ICM spot with plenty of action behind her - what are you doing with KK here?
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@gungirlnyc @altcap @TrumpAccounts @MichaelDell @NYSE This isn’t designed to be a lottery ticket for 18 year olds (sadly that’s probably how 90% of people will treat it though).
It’s to teach them about compounding interest and hopefully get them a head start on investing for their future.
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@altcap @TrumpAccounts @MichaelDell @NYSE what happens when the market crashes when one is 18 and then pumps for the other who was born two years later?
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Every child forevermore will get a private investment acct at birth w $1000. Today, all kids under 18 can claim their free acct in 2 mins @TrumpAccounts. All kids under 10 get $250 from @MichaelDell. All kids under 2 get $1000 from the US Treasury. Ring the bell! 🇺🇸🚀@NYSE
Michael Dell 🇺🇸@MichaelDell
Dear America 👶❤️🤍💙🇺🇸
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@SinaiLawFirm Burning the house down and collecting the insurance payout seems like the best option to be honest.
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Do you want to know why rent is so expensive in LA? Why the application process takes so long? Why landlords want so much info from you? Here is a recent story:
A family was referred to me for their eviction case. They were heading to a jury trial in one month and didn't have a lawyer, yet.
They did all the paperwork and filing themselves, in-house to save on legal fees. And surprisingly, they did a great job. They filed the paperwork with LAHD. Gave proper notice to the tenants.
I reviewed their paperwork and it was better quality than 90% of other eviction lawyers. I didn't see any viable way to dismiss the case on a technicality.
As long as they were properly represented in trial, the family was going to win the eviction. They did everything by the book. Followed all the local rules. Gave all the necessary notices.
The family told me the judge ordered the parties to mediate at the first court appearance. The family attended the mediation in court without a lawyer. The tenant was provided a lawyer by the city, for free. At the mediation the lawyer for the tenants offered this settlement:
1. 4 months to vacate the property
2. Cash to leave, paid upfront
3. Waiver of all owed rent
4. Sealed record
They rejected the offer, of course. Why would they accept this?
The family then asked me a great question. "What is our best case scenario with you in trial?"
Based on my review, I gave them my most realistic estimate of the best case scenario in trial:
1. Both parties announce ready at the next trial date (1 month away) and trial takes 3 days. We win the trial.
2. Sheriff locks out the tenant 75 days after the trial.
3. about 110 days to possession.
4. Gave them an estimate cost for fees/prep time.
5. No viable collection of back rent, tenants had no assets.
Obviously, this was the best case scenario. It could be worse. Trial can be delayed. While I was confident we are going to win, juries are unpredictable.
This is where we had a surreal moment of collective clarity. The settlement offer they rejected is basically their best case scenario if they win the trial.
This was not a coincidence. The attorney for the tenants asked for pretty much the same amount I quoted them for my fees.
The lawyer for the tenants knew the family had to hire a lawyer for a jury trial. The lawyer knows it takes the sheriff 2-3 months to lockout after a judgment. The lawyer knows it's hard (and expensive) to collect against tenants with no assets.
State and local government created a system in which cases take forever to litigate, eviction laws are extremely complex and technical, easy to dismiss cases, only one side has to pay a lawyer, and worst of all, possession enforcement takes 60-90 days instead of 5. And it's all getting worse.
The leverage for the tenants is systemic. It's by design. Why would the tenants make any other offer? The landlords are left with no real options but a shitty settlement.
There are no real choice. Even when you do everything right, you still lose.
Tenants don't pay rent during evictions. They had no viable way to win the trial. There were no habitability issues. The landlords posted all the notices. Never raised the rent. Didn't retaliate. The landlords did everything right. And the tenants still win.
The mother looked at me and asked "our base case in trial is the same as the shitty settlement offer? Are you telling me we should have taken the offer we rejected?"
I didn't know how to respond.
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@mikepat711 @gnoble79 He made some good points and maybe he’s right…
BUT
When my CyberTruck drives me to work tomorrow all will be forgotten.
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Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year.
And fewer last year than the year before.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history.
And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.
France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.
BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.
The brand is in FREEFALL.
Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.
And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.
Let me say that differently:
Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.
The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service."
So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.
Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.
The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.
And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.
So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.
On 365 times earnings.
Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.
I think this stock goes down 90% from here.
Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.
A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.
I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:
When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.
I can see the seams.
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@karol I also think many parents are desperate to get their kids outside and off the Internet and video games and end up paying a ton to do it with sports as their escape vehicle.
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Travel sports are largely stupid but I think so many families have leaned more into kids' sports because it's a way to foster community and the parents have few other opportunities to do that. Some do it for distant college possibilities, sure, but for many it's making friends.
Clay Travis@ClayTravis
If you’re a parent and you think — spending on kids sports is out of control — you’re not wrong. Look at spending on youth sports since 2019. Graphic via @wsj.
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@latterdaylaura Let’s see a screenshot of your social media screen time.
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My super strong parenting opinion is that while the kids are awake, you come last.
No spending all of Saturday golfing. That’s family time. 6 am tee time only, maybe.
Wanna go to the gym? Go after the kids go to bed, or wake up at 5.
In a few short years, they’ll be out of the house and you’ll have all the time in the world for your own stuff. It’s okay to come last for a while.
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@Chrissssjohnson You forgot to account for rising insurance and property taxes. Homeowners aren’t immune to inflation.
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20 years ago the average mortgage payment was $1,200
Now imagine a 45 year old today is still
paying on that same house he bought at 25
Paying $1,200 for housing in 2026 is the steal of the century for a 45 year old man
You won’t be 20 forever G
🇬🇧 Tom - Investor £120K@2147mill
Buying a house in your 20s is a liability, not an investment. Argue against me.
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@alt_w_v_g Car warranties “99% covered bumper to bumper”
Unless of course they deem it wear and tear.
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The dishwasher broke
My wife said "good thing we have the home warranty"
I said nothing
I've been paying $62 a month for three years for this moment
$2,232 for the peace of mind that when something breaks someone will come to the house and tell me it's not covered
I called
47 minutes on hold
They sent a technician
Arrival window: Tuesday through Thursday between 8am and 5pm
My analyst delivers faster than that
And he still hasn't fixed the gridlines
He showed up Wednesday at 4:47pm
Looked at the dishwasher
Opened the door
Closed the door
Touched something underneath
Said "not covered"
90 seconds
That's faster than my bank lets me prove I'm human
I said "what's covered"
He said "the motor"
I said "what's wrong with it"
He said "not the motor"
I said "convenient"
He said the service fee is $75
I paid a man $75 to open my dishwasher, close my dishwasher, and say two words
My analyst could do that
And he's not even that good
I called the warranty company back
38 minutes on hold
Requested the policy
129 pages
I read all 129 pages
Because that's what I do
The coverage section is 34 pages
The exclusions section is 58
The business model is right there
In the margins
Where nobody reads
Except me
Page 91 says "all mechanical and electrical components essential to appliance function are covered under standard service"
Page 104 excludes control panels
A control panel is an electrical component essential to appliance function
Their own document contradicts itself 13 pages apart
I highlighted both
Sent them an email
Subject line: "Plz fix. Thx."
Attached both pages
No other context
Took them three days to send a technician
Took them 4 hours to call me back when I found the loophole
Funny how that works
They covered the repair
Waived the $75
And I canceled the warranty anyway
Because a contract that contradicts itself isn't a contract
It's a suggestion
My wife said "so we're canceling"
I said "we're canceling"
She said "and the dishwasher"
I said "fixed. They're covering it."
She said "how"
I said "I read the policy"
She said "all 129 pages"
I said "the exclusions section starts on page 47. The coverage section ends on page 34. There are 13 pages between them where they hoped nobody would look."
She looked at me
Then she said "you're unbelievable"
I said "I just saved us $744 a year and got a free dishwasher repair. I'm not unbelievable. I'm thorough."
She looked at the ceiling
The dishwasher works now
The warranty is canceled
And the policy has been read
By at least one person
Probably the first
Make common sense common again
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
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@tezah__ In a real football game this is called getting roasted by the WR.
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How in gods name is ishowspeed step for step with Devonta Smith
FOX Sports@FOXSports
Jalen Hurts deep ball to DeVonta Smith! 🦅
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50byHalftime รีทวีตแล้ว

The arena was SHAKING, absolute scenes
Nico@elitetakes_
All time crowd pop on that Nebraska layup omg
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