Financial Shill

@21stCentValue $OXY & $OXY.WS ideas stolen from Buffett and Icahn were my best clone investments to date. Anyone buying $OXY.WS Oct 20 its up 1511% vs 575% for $OXY stock. I look at it daily. Oil became like Tobacco stocks so perhaps that is why its not discussed.

@KobeissiLetter $VUG achieved 37.69% for the last year plus .59% dividend all for a 0.04% mgmt fee. Beating every hedge fund. How much did these guys charge in fees?

TOP HEDGE FUND RETURNS IN 2024, PER BLOOMBERG: 1. DE Shaw: +36.1% 2. Bridgewater China: +35.0% 3. Statar: +25.3% 4. Broad Reach: +24.3% 5. Marshall Wace: +22.6% 6. Schonfeld: +21.1% 7. Walleye: +18.0% 8. Dymon Asia: +17.0% 9. Millennium: +15.0% 10. Balyasny: +13.6% 11. Winton Fund: +10.3% 12. New Holland Capital: +9.6% 13. King Street: +9.1% 14. Brevan Howard: +5.5% The S&P 500 closed the year +23.8% higher in 2024, posting its first back-to-back 20%+ annual gain since 1998. What stands out on this list?

@rationalwalk Depends on your time horizon. Cloned Buffett & Icahn on $OXY in a 10 stock portfolio and $OXY has out performed since March 20.

@alitaylor Watch Warren Buffett answer this for you in 12 minutes from the point this link starts at 2hrs 42 to 2 hrs 55.  It explains well why $VOO & 0.03% expense ratio is the best option.  youtu.be/ZZXDbvRGoBs?t=…

i cannot for the life of me figure out if i should be paying someone to manage my money or just putting it in an s&p500 index

@TreyLockerbie @stig_brodersen Can you please post the "feltman book" of deal terms you refer to in the podcast? Many thanks

A few months back I stepped away from podcasting to pursue my first private acquisition. Putting the lesson’s i’ve learned into practice. I recently caught up with @stig_brodersen to share my experience: youtube.com/watch?v=yAs9yb…

@BillBrewsterTBB I watch Buffett here when I start thinking I should be more active. A great 12 minute watch youtu.be/ZZXDbvRGoBs?t=…

Had a little conversation with myself about indexing. At the end of the day, and this may be completely illogical, I just dont trust passive products after 12 years of a bull run. Just seems like there must be bodies somewhere and I have no idea where to find them. And I can't get down with buying the SPY here vs other stuff. That said, been saying the same thing for years. Wrongly.

@BillBrewsterTBB @EconomPic Diesel's do have better range. Euro 3.0 diesels have 1000km / 620 mile real world range on US 21 gallons or 80 litres for a large SUV like Audi Q7. Looking for an EV now but range is not there yet.

Seems to me the key issue for a trip isn't range, per se. It's charging time. ICE cars dont have any more "range" on a tank of gas but can be refilled quickly. Personally, I am most likely morphing to a one EV one ICE household. More range, or even less range, wouldnt change that.

Reading the AAMC call and have to wonder... Is the principal challenge for EVs really lack of range? What percentage of drivers actually drive in excess of 100 miles per day? Also, is 8% more range really a big change? kbb.com/car-advice/ave….

@AvidCommentator To early to claim NZ house prices have reached the bottom with low sales levels & some markets still negative in July. MSM paid by RE industry have head fake articles but its not clear in the data. Will only be able to call with data from Spring & summer listings @AKLpropertynow

Time between borders reopening and bottom in housing prices Australia - 12 months NZ - 10 months Canada - 9 months (from ramp up of immigration to above pre-Covid levels) High immigration during a rental crisis seems to be the secret sauce for supporting house prices

@RohunJauhar Any of these. Rest of menu pretty standard.

going to cheesecake factory (lol). what’s the best thing to eat on the menu?

@realEstateTrent The idea is a common RE agent tactic for justification for negative yield purchase prices so they can get commissions and run.

I've never bought a deal based on the expectation that market rents will grow. Never even considered it. I don't gamble. This isn't Vegas. It's investing.

@realEstateTrent When cap rate is lower than cost of debt it's known as the hopium strategy. I hope it goes up otherwise i am screwed. It worked until it didn't. Cap rate must be cost of debt plus a margin. Surprising how many agents punt deals like this don't want to give vendors a reality check

I don't know who needs to hear this: You borrow at an interest rate that's lower than the cap rate you're buying at. That's how it works. It's not a trophy. It doesn't just go up. It doesn't matter that you think rates are coming down. It's math. This is math.

@RyanDanz I am currently renting a high end airbnb in Hawaii for 5 weeks. Place is mint views are crazy. But on arrival floor was sticky and making feet dirty. Went to Walmart bought this and fixed myself! Told host but more to improve for future guests. They offered to fix afterwards also

Guest sends photo of a dirty bottom of his sock - wants a $250 cleaning fee refund (which covers post stay for 5 bedrooms & 10 people) •Could’ve been dirty socks before arrival: 50% •Could’ve walked outside in socks: 25% •One of “those guests”: 100% What would you like us to do? In any home at any time regardless of cleaning fee, you can if you look for it, you WILL find dust or dirt. Same goes for any hotel room. What would you like? Do you want us to spit shine the floor? Do you want us to fire the cleaning team? Do you want us to install brand new floors? Do you want a no-shoes-inside policy that is impossible to enforce? Or did you just intend to go fishing for a refund since you know the system is game-able? You tell us what you want us to do. I’m here to make that happen.

@cjoye Nz listed property fund Argosy paid $2.14m to Colliers & CBRE for industrial vals for Auckland 31 Mar 23 using cap rates of 3.07% to 3.87% and 4.11% and 4.23% lower than the Nz government bond rate and far lower than the cost of debt to buy today. Pure madness and bs imo.

Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors... afr.com/property/comme…

@BillBrewsterTBB @wahoowave Agreed. Have taken my 9 Yr old son and 7 Yr old daughter and wife to Hawaii for 5 weeks during the New Zealand winter. 16 days in so far. Waking up to this each day is amazing.

@wahoowave Yeah, I think we are on different pages on this one. I’d rather be paying for everything and have more time than have them “free and clear by 7 or 8.” Time with them is an asset. At any cost.

A “stat” I talked about with a friend (verify it for yourself): By the time your kid is 13 you’ve spent 75% of the time you’ll ever spend with them.

@DividendGrowth Delayed gratification. Most cant practice this. It makes perfect sense to me. I am trying to test my son and daughter to see if they think this way now aged 7 and 9. Charlie has said from memory it can't be taught based on his children.

"The first 13 years I practiced law, my income [from practicing law] was $300,000 total. At the end of that 13 years, what did I have? A house. Two cars. And $300,000 of liquid assets. Everyone else’d have spent that slender income, not invested it shrewdly, and so forth. I just think it was, to me, it was as natural as breathing, and of course I knew how compound interest worked! I knew when I saved $10 I was really saving $100 or $1,000 [because of the future growth of the $10], and it just took a little wait. And when I quit law practice it was because I wanted to work for myself instead of my clients, because I knew I could do better than they did."

$VTV vs $VUG vs $VOO. $VUG has come back strong winning 1Y and 5Ys. Age old dilemma but I am thinking to give up on Value! Current ETF weightings 45% $VUG & $VOO each & 10% $VTV outside individual stock portfolio.

@JRogrow @Greenbackd @farnamjake1 Good VAH chat today. Note Buffett had a significant $JPM stake in 2018 approx $5B. Then sold it Q3/Q4 2020. Source Dataroma. Todd Combs is still on the board as well.

@therobertleonar Don't sweat it. It changes fast. I went through the same with my son and he was in the 105th percentile for height! My daughter 95th percentile. Eventually one day it just ends. Same as nappy duty ends one day and roaming the supermarket looking for them in the night!

My son will be 5 in 2 months, yet he still likes to be held/carried a lot. My first reaction was to say no and tell him he’s too old to be carried. Then, I realized there will be a day (soon) where he doesn’t want me to pick him up anymore, and I will have held him for the last time (but I won’t know it). Talking to @JesseItzler has really helped me rethink this stuff, and I’m glad I have.

@TomInvesting @mitch_dol Definitely distress in payments and banks are extending terms and offering interest only. Mortgagee sales up but still low. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@mitch_dol @FinancialShill @FinancialShill will be paying close attention than me, but not really tbh

Absolutely astounding to me that anyone thinks property prices have stopped falling considering new home buyers will be buying into the market at the below rate 🤷‍♂️

@mitch_dol Agreed. Large chunk of NZ residential loans would have zero or negative equity behind them if property were revalued. Banks do value them upwards post lending which is bizarre. Meanwhile NZ housing mkt gets worse by the week. interest.co.nz/property/12098…

@FinancialShill The fact that our NZ and Aus banks don’t have to revalue and disclose the property values against their loan books as property prices fall renders their book values and ‘strong capital ratios’ meaningless IMO