FreebirdSMB

@MarceloLima There is no free cash flow if you deduct SBC. That is the problem with TEAM

$TEAM at $67 is now at 10x fwd free cash flow

This was so obviously written by AI. A couple things: -You keep talking about cash as % of market cap. This is completely meaningless given they have net debt -FCF is calculated after interest expense/debt service, not before -I highly doubt the increased spike in “cancel peloton” google searches are tied to earnings. I suspect 99% of users have 0 idea about the earnings result

Correction: the Form 4 filings I referenced were option exercises, not open market purchases. I've updated the full piece. Thanks to @mylesgrote for flagging. The thesis is unchanged — $345M FCF, 5x multiple, improving churn, Chewy comp. But the insider framing was wrong and I should have checked the transaction codes. Updated piece on the Substack.

I’m long Peloton at $4. $345M in free cash flow. $1.18B in cash (67% of market cap). 7 insiders bought in the last 90 days. I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.

@Will_Schryver I have been under LOI on 3 deals. 1 had a sellside QoE and 2 did not. Guess which deal ended up with numbers closes to what was presented by the broker?

Would you risk $500,000 to save $25,000? Do not sell your HVAC, Plumbing, or Electrical company to private equity without a QofE I’m working with owners selling right now Sell-side QofE for each deal and both sides are happy we did - seller and buyer

It is shocking to me how much money is being raised and invested in VC. It’s like they learned nothing from 2020/2021 and were bailed out by AI. I can’t see how this ends well. It makes no sense to me that a legalAI needs to raise $500 million+ a few months after raising $100 million. It feels like money is just being lit on fire. Some of these private marks are completely absurd relative to where comparables trade in the public markets. Everything always converges to public market valuations so will be interesting to see this play out

@loganbartlett @WeAreLegora Serious questio. Why do they need $550m? Legora and Harvey have raised $1bn+ at insane valuations and it seems like their place in the world is at best fragile. Not clear why this needs to exist outside chatGPT and Claude

We've been fortunate enough to be a small part of the @WeAreLegora journey for the last two years. What began as a Swedish-focused legal software company has evolved into the global platform that is used by the world's largest law firms (and increasingly in-house corporate teams) to support their AI transformation. The company has always played the long-game (including making the decision to stop selling their product to rebuild their infrastructure for ~4 months right after we invested.. which uh I was totally chill about) and while this is just a step on the long-term journey, it's fantastic to see this milestone finally public. I cannot express how much I learn on a daily basis from @MaxJunestrand @siggelabor about what it means to build an AI-native business and am eternally grateful for their first-principles take to business building. This is truly just the beginning for this team and company. Congrats guys. cc/@jacobeffron

@pitdesi There is way too much capital out there. No shot these guys need $550 million

Legora is averaging a round of funding every 4 months, each one ~tripling their valuation

@awxjack @airwallex @deel @McLarenF1 @boltapp Payments transactions are not ARR

We saved our customers over $1.3 Billion in 2025 alone. That value has helped @Airwallex reach $1.2 Billion in ARR, growing 85% YoY. @Deel, @McLarenF1 , @boltapp and 200,000+ other customers trust us because legacy banking wasn't meant for global businesses: • Opening a bank account in a new country takes weeks • SWIFT transfers take 3-5 days • Other platforms convert your money even when you don't want to But with Airwallex you can: 1. Open an account and get paid like a local in 70 countries Most platforms force you to convert your money into your currency and charge you a conversion fee to do it. With Airwallex, your UK client pays you in GBP and it sits in your GBP balance. Your Australian client pays in AUD and it sits in your AUD balance. When you need to pay a UK vendor or run Australian payroll, you can simply pay from the same currency in your Airwallex account which leads to zero conversion fees. 2. Send and receive money on the same day SWIFT takes 3–5 days and hits you with unpredictable fees on every transfer. But over 90% of Airwallex transactions happen on the same day. Since Airwallex uses local rails to move your money, it also happens at near-zero cost. 3. Issue multi-currency cards instantly Airwallex helps you issue multi-currency cards to your employees across the entire world. And every transaction is automatically synced to your accounting system in real-time. 4. Integrate Airwallex in your product SaaS platforms and marketplaces can also use our APIs to offer these financial services to their customers. In fact, many companies are doing it already. But this is just a glimpse of what Airwallex can do. We’re building the all-in-one financial stack your company will ever need. If you're doing $50M+ in revenue, you could save up to $500k in fees. And that's money back into your business. Sign up for a demo here: airwallex.com/offer/airwalle…

@JackieHirsch_ Would place 0 value on something like this

Does anyone have feedback on if this course is worthwhile? I had a buyer reach out who said he took this course and so he can now operate a private equity firm. I’d love feedback. Wharton Online & Wall Street Prep Private Equity Certificate wallstreetprep.wharton.upenn.edu/pe-certificate/

@ContrarianCurse this tweet got a shoutout on VIC

My impression of every Howard Marks memo This look expensive, there may be a bubble, but not yet. You should stay measured, but not miss the moment. History says markets go up and down

@mwfinancier he wants to go straight to a binding term sheet and have a non-refundable deposit ha

@FreebirdSMB That is crazy. You should be clear that your diligence is highly streamlined and will take no longer than 30-60 days with his cooperation I’d just skip the LOI and go straight to the purchase agreement and see how he reacts Take it slowly but show initiative to gain trust

Seller is asking for a $100k non refundable deposit. It’s a good deal with a great price for the size (~2.5m ebitda at <4x). There is 0 flexibility in sellers part. He was under LOI with another group for 1.5 years before the deal fell apart so is very wary now. What do you do? My thought is that it’s unfortunately a non starter. The true cost is much more than $100k when you account for diligence costs (legal, QoE, etc). Probably not worth the risk

@clownarguments I agree with this

@FreebirdSMB Should walk away, unless 100k doesn’t mean much to you. Deal dies for 100000 reasons. It’s not your fault that the seller hung around for 1.5 years with the last prospective buyer.

@masticmensch dont think they would go for that given there are apparently other bidders willing to do this. I think there's too much room for grey area on the break fee (i.e what if I find something in diligence I don't like and want to break the deal)

@FreebirdSMB Sure - then they owe one sided break fee of whatever the deposit is + diligence fees. Would they entertain?

imagine being a LO software investor today

That feeling when you are about to crack open a QoE you just got back on an LOI

You don’t appreciate the constant water refills at an American restaurant until you go to Europe

@ContrarianCurse Thoughts vs GEV?

$SMNEY Believe it or not, I think this has plenty of juice in the tank

First time skiing in Europe and I think its a way better experience than the US A couple observations: The actual skiing is much cheaper (lift tickets are 60 euros, rentals are 30 euros per day) and the on-mountain food is way better (actual restaurants with lots more options and better pricing). I suspect this is because most of the restaurants on mountain are independently owned vs Vail group controlling/owning everything I think the actual skiing in the US is better with more consistent snow and more variety of runs (though my European sample size is 1). Overall, I think I would take European skiing all day over US. It probably works out to being cheaper than skiing in the US inclusive of a more expensive flight.

@Hallon_HH @ContrarianCurse Then ADBE shoukd be a “back the truck up” situation. I struggle with ADBE…I clearly see the bear case but also just think maybe AI just makes their product way better and it’s fine

@FreebirdSMB @ContrarianCurse I'd say the opposite, none is replacing advanced prof. tools with prompt ai, figma and the basic stuff howevee is already replaced. People make presentations amd basic design scetches with ai now. ADBE is SAVED from trying to buy figma

Software is all dead likely goes down as a Matt Ball 7T dollar metaverse level of retarded If any of you have recently been through an RFP, you’d know that even if the bluest of sky scenario play out, nothing changes for 3-5 years. Minimum