Matthew Kochman

@factor_members what a run for cotton 🐰

@factor_members Isn’t Rice very volatile or low volume?

The main points are: 1. The Baby Boomer generation are aging and in retirement. They own the vast majority of wealth. They don’t have and can’t have long-term time horizons. 2. Historically elevated S&P500 valuations at 22 P/E which means forward 10-year returns are negative. 3. Market cap to GDP of 252%. 2000 was 170%; 1929 was 65% 4. Buffett has 300B cash for a reason 5. Excess leverage in the system. institutional portfolios went from 7% in PE in 2008 to 16% now. real estate has gone higher and portfolios are more illiquid than ever 6. Bond market living on the fringes with our current debt, interest rates and deficit situation. Active management probably comes back in a big way the moment there is massive destruction in stocks for a decade Thats why Livermore in like 1940 has that quote “far more money has been lost riding investments than cutting losses in trading”. It makes sense when you frame it in the context back then - 1929 destroyed stocks and stocks went no where for 2 decades and the Great Depression happened.

@StockSavvyShay @MichaelPBento He’s not saying today is like 2000.

Paul Tudor Jones says today’s market has “so many similarities” to 2000 calling it “the easiest bear market” of his career. Hard to take bear argument seriously when some of the largest companies on earth are still putting up these growth numbers: • $GOOGL Cloud +63% YoY • $MSFT Azure +40% YoY • $META Ads +33% YoY • $AMZN AWS +28% YoY

@factor_members Saving this post

@TechCharts RS, nice breakouts. Cup and handle?

@factor_members when your trades work out this can be really fun 😂

@factor_members I know we sell loser on Fridays but do we enter new trades on Fridays?

@StealthQE4 That’s my target

Oil just took off. $120 by next week if nothing changes imo.

@davidslosttt Have you been there?

It's possible that the Democrats only have 6 districts in the ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH

@Mr_Derivatives Me neither

$USO +113% ytd $SPY +5.2% ytd No idea how this is… But sometimes you just go with it.

@factor_members November

@TechCharts Seems likely

$BCOM ready for a fresh breakout?

@MomAngtrades Diana Rossini?

Everyone owes this lady an apology if you believed that stupid story

This is basically consensus all across X right now. Mega caps crushed. Time for the next 20% move on the $QQQ! I can’t possibly be the only human that thinks basing periods are healthy after 100% moves right? Let’s all just take a breather here and slow ourselves down. There is nothing wrong with down with some sideways This is coming from someone sitting on 8 long positions. The more chop and churn the better.

@NikkiHaley When is that?

America just crossed a dangerous milestone: our national debt now exceeds the size of our economy. Washington spends $1.33 for every $1 it takes in, with a $1.9T deficit this year alone. When the bill comes due, expect higher taxes, a weaker dollar, fewer services, a weaker military—and our kids stuck paying for it.

@FinanceLancelot Interesting chart

Nasdaq stocks above 200 day remains on trend. Expecting a big breakout to begin soon to get us up to the top of the wedge that has provided resistance since January 2024. What happens around May 12 is anyone's guess, but Kevin Warsh takes over May 15 and he has been vocal about being more hawkish than Powell. Also Fri May 15 is OpEx and Tues May 19 is VIXpiration. That's when the market becomes unpinned and is free to move.