Pedro H Dejneka

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Pedro H Dejneka

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻

🇺🇸🇧🇷 เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2011
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen? Is the growth sustainable? Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed? Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.: ✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports” You don’t want to miss it
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
@a8anto 🎯🎯🎯 corn feed number is completely out of touch with reality
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR! 25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!! US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87+ MMTs in 25/26!!! For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72. In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs. Hence, The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!! While that is an incredible feat... ...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3+ bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!! here's why... 🧵
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
EPA / RVO / Soybean Oil / Meal / Soybeans Pay Attention⚠️ The "speculative elastic band" is extremely stretched, without any actual fundamental justification whatsoever Today's announcement brings nothing "new" to a market that "priced in" expectations well above REALITY
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout

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Pedro H Dejneka รีทวีตแล้ว
Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430+ MMTs of corn in 25/26!!! That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!! #2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs! That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs... FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST 10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)... ... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH! FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🎯🎯🎯 I remember when the world was "going to run out of corn and wheat in 2022"... and in the 70's and 80's, 90's, etc... Like I mentioned in the post, IF the conflict lasts into "next year", ok, things get much more dicey... but short term, very little impact, especially given large carryover stocks...
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Paulina lescano
Paulina lescano@paulina_lescano·
@PHDChicago food crisis headlines sell . The picture is from a headline in may 22. We know what happens after with markets. Of course it will depend on the duration of the conflict, but! Even so, Russia and Ukraine have been at war for 4 years.
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🤦‍♂️Completely OUT of TOUCH headline and "analysis" That said, as always... the "FOOD CRISIS" headline sells We are incredibly FAR from "food crisis" scenario in CORN and WHEAT Now, if the conflicts lasts into next spring... that's a whole other discussion...
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Mark Noland
Mark Noland@marknoland·
@PHDChicago There are definitely farmers who order in the fall, there are definitely farmers who order in the spring, there are definitely farmers who order when needed. I am a farmer, and I personally don’t know a soul who purchases just one season in advance.
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 say it louder to the folks in the back, Chet! 🤙🏼👊🏼
ChetTheJet@TheJetNamedChet

@shanaka86 No. Because: (a) Farmers plan and order fertilizer two seasons in advance of planting, especially for large-scale crop production. (b) September/October is when farmers ordered for this spring. (c) Fertilizer is already on hand for this year's spring planting.

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
Soybeans x Soybean Oil YTD: Bean Oil: +33% Beans: +12% The TAIL is literally wagging the dog... Because... maybe... perhaps... we COULD see 2-3 MMTs more crush in US?!? While US exports down ~20 MMTs in 5 yrs & SOY AREA to increase 5+ million acres... Makes perfect sense ;)
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Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
Brazil Soybean Export Basis Update 1 picture = 1000 words
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Craig Solberg
Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg·
@PHDChicago Safras planted acreage 48.33 mil ha...looks like they are barely over 48 mil ha harvested (177.72 MMT/3.696 MT/ha)...really low, even lower than CONAB and more than a million lower than USDA. Seems like yield numbers in better agreement than acreage! Yur thots?
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
"Does 🇨🇳 'need' 🇺🇸 soybeans"?!? Don't take it from me... Take it from Grok ;), who btw is absolutely spot on
Grok@grok

No, China doesn't strictly "need" US soybeans. Its ~100 MMT annual import demand is met mostly by Brazil (87 MMT in 2025 amid record 180 MMT production). US share dropped to 7 MMT due to 2025 tariffs/trade tensions. They buy US beans for diversification (weather/logistics risks from Brazil), quality edges (often better oil/protein specs, lower moisture), and seasonal timing. Trade deals target 25 MMT in 2026, but with Brazilian prices cheaper and recent tariff shifts, actual volume may fall short unless economics align. US exports can shift to other markets, but China remains key buyer overall.

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
SOYBEAN Exports to 🇨🇳 Jan-Dec '25: 🇺🇸 7 MMT 🇧🇷 87 MMT 80 MMT gap; largest ever! *Production gap: 0 to ~65 MMTs since 2018 Begs the question: Does CH really "need" US beans? CH has to buy at least 20 MMTs in '26 (possible, not probable), or US exp. falls <1.5bb or <41 MMTs
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