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@Nerdy_Anon @Teslarati How many miles between interventions for you?

@Teslarati Rainy morning to work a couple times in FL in my 26 MY since I got it in January. It has told me to pay attention in heavy rain but no issues.

How many people have taken Full Self-Driving on: -Snow-covered roads -Foggy routes -Torrential downpour drives -Single-lane backroads with gravel ...and had ZERO issues?

Analysts are lowering their estimates for unit sales for 1Q26. copilot.microsoft.com/shares/fYfpUHk… NHTSA just escalated their investigation into FSD engineering and may issue a recall that takes it off the market and kills any near-term cybercab AV launch. seekingalpha.com/news/4566314-t… Market conditions and company fundamentals are likely to put the kibosh on the SpaceX IPO. youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si… Tesla Energy has no moat. That business will never deserve the type of rev multiple that delusional investors have applied to the other parts of Tesla's business. copilot.microsoft.com/shares/mBAKDq9… Tesla has many competitors in the humanoid robotics industry and many more in the industrial robot segment. copilot.microsoft.com/shares/DZmH55c… copilot.microsoft.com/shares/3aqanz2…

Am I wrong in thinking this way? As we head into the second quarter of 2026, we see more and more news being released for what’s coming. It’s making me more bullish than I already am. The infrastructure is in place, the map is figured out and they are taking action. What’s left is execution on their part. Getting timelines in order. This company is becoming more and more efficient as we speak. The worldwide supply chain is getting more robust. Their flywheel is working perfectly. The doubters are out in full force saying they’ll never live up to the hype but in my opinion, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The future is here. If you’re not first you’re last. You must be wondering what the hell I am even talking about? Well you’d be surprised, it’s $TSLA. We are surely off to a rough start here in 2026 but I think the company is performing better than then ever. Robotaxi service has launched and we are about to see the scale of this business take off. Cybercab is being produced on the new line at Giga Texas. Cortex 2 is being built. Giga Nevada is about to release the semi here over the next couple months. Giga Houston will be coming online shortly. FSD is now subscription only. Tesla is now back in the solar game and Giga New York is about to be cranking them out. Elon announced Tesla will be building a terafab. Optimus factory at Giga Texas is in the works. The dry electrode has been solved. The lithium refinery in Texas is running. Tesla supercharging is growing very fast. Tesla energy has quite literally unlimited demand as AI scales. SpaceX IPO and a possible merger between both companies. Tesla semi and Robotaxi to Germany potentially! $44 billion of cash in hand. Margins are increasing as efficiency increases and as demand grows. The stock is at $380 per share I think it’s a steal deal. I think the next 5 years is going to freaking insane. I’m buying on every dip.

@M44_1RJ I predict the SpaceX IPO will not happen this year and will be blamed on "market conditions". The reality is that the SpaceX fundamentals will not support anywhere near the valuation that is being hyped. Watch this analysis to understand why: youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si…

Tesla will soon become a nothing burger once it merges with SpaceX—they won’t even say Tesla anymore; it’ll just be the energy and ride-sharing division of X! $TSLA shareholders must be assured that their investment value isn’t getting diluted by Elon! This is a must, or the bleeding will accelerate by summer. I’m Jimmy, speaking up for retail investors. @elonmusk

Quite a bit of guesswork there, combined with psychoanalysis and mindreading. The simplest explanation is vision-only systems will never be as safe as vision+radar+lidar. It doesn't matter if vision-only systems are safer than humans. Any serious accident in a cybercab will have the trial lawyers calling up Elon's boasts about Tesla's lower-cost solution and pressing for a penalty equal to all of the "savings" that Tesla earned by "cheaping out" on their sensor suite. Elon went all-in on vision-only and that will be the downfall of the company.

Elon says FSD 14.3 is coming. But if you’ve been following along, it was also “two weeks away” a few months ago. That’s drawn a lot of criticism, understandably. Let’s step back and talk about what’s actually going on: engineering reality. I’ve spent years running engineering teams at Apple and Rivian, and what you’re seeing here is not unusual. Not even a little. I’m not here to defend Elon or say communication couldn’t be better. It could. But what’s happening behind the scenes is far more ordinary than people think. First, understand what kind of company Tesla is. Tesla exposes more of its internal process than most companies— you’re watching how the sausage is made, often in real time. Compare that to Apple. Products appear at a moment in time, fully formed. What you don’t see are the features that slipped, were cut, or quietly postponed to make the deadline. Most companies communicate through layers of marketing at discrete events (e.g., NVIDIA GTC). That may include a CEO keynote—but it’s still tightly controlled. Tesla, largely via Elon, doesn’t. And that creates friction. Most people are used to being in the dining room. With Tesla, you’re watching the sausage get made whether you like it or not. If that makes you uncomfortable, this model will drive you crazy no matter how it’s explained. Now, about FSD 14.3— the so-called “reasoning” release. My view: when Elon originally referenced it, it was real. It was on a roadmap with a timeline. But then reality hit. Somewhere along the way, engineering discussions likely exposed a fork: ship what’s partially there, or go deeper and "do it right". That kind of shift happens constantly. Plans change. Timelines slip. This is normal engineering behavior, not dysfunction. The difference is: you’re seeing it. At companies like Apple, those decisions are invisible. Deadlines are protected by cutting scope. At Tesla, you’re watching the scope evolve in real time. On the technical side, 14.1 and 14.2 were already producing “reasoning tokens,” as Ashok (Tesla AI VP) noted. But producing tokens isn’t the same as using them effectively. 14.3 appears to be where those tokens actually start driving behavior, more human-like decision-making in edge cases. My guess is this is where things got more complicated. The work likely started to overlap with what xAI is doing. At that point, the question becomes: do you ship an interim solution, or integrate a more capable reasoning layer? That’s not a small decision. And it likely has downstream impact— potentially even on Robotaxi timelines— because these same reasoning challenges show up there too. So the team probably made a call: go deeper, even if it costs time. And here’s the part people underestimate: great engineering teams often convince themselves the extra work is worth it… and that it won’t take that much longer. They’re usually wrong on the timeline. But often right on the outcome. At this stage, FSD isn’t about raw safety (it seems to have nailed that)— it’s about behavior. Making decisions feel natural, human, predictable in edge cases. That’s a much harder problem. So if you’re following Tesla closely, the best thing you can do is understand the process and accept the messiness that comes with it. If you want tightly controlled messaging and polished delivery, companies like Apple exist for that. Tesla is something else entirely. Fire away.

@alsoJMc @rdd147 Maybe SpaceX won’t be able to come public: youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si…

@rdd147 the SpaceX IPO allocation to $TSLAQ shareholder pump is still forthcoming. Shorting more on that pop

Tesla $TSLA continues to lose ground vs Nasdaq. Downgrade today on stupidity that Tesla can afford a “Terrafab” Company is toast and about to puke out -20% over next 2 weeks.

@wholemars When will Tesla provide all of the data needed for independent analysts to evaluate your claims?

A lot of people are focused on when Tesla will catch up to Waymo, which is fair given that Waymo has thousands of driverless cars and Tesla only has a handful. But not enough people ask “When will Waymo catch up to Tesla?” 1. When will Waymo be able to take me on a coast to coast drive? 2. When will I be able to buy a Waymo? 3. When will Waymo cross 8 million cars that can run their software? 4. When will Waymo be able to work with no geofencing restrictions? My contrarian take is that it’s a lot easier for Tesla to catch Waymo than for Waymo to catch up to Tesla.

If it was solved, don’t you think Elon would have more autonomous taxis in operation so he didn’t look like an idiot with all of his projections? Also, if the data were good, don’t you think Tesla would share it and make a big positive deal out of it? The fact that they are so non-transparent means that the data probably does not support the argument that it is “solved“.

Disagree. Just because you don’t know why they haven’t decided to scale doesn’t mean it isn’t solved. You’re asking the wrong question. You should be asking “What are they waiting for?”

@MBB_theB @robertgraham I dunno, space compute appears to cost 3x terrestrial compute. But, people are going to believe whatever Musk claims, I guess.

@robertgraham It is the Musk play; always betting the company on the next big thing, making sure to be ahead of the competition. And have enough technical lead to pivot if the market offers another opportunity. I think space computing has some potential, but that high risk should be priced in

SpaceX's IPO is insane. It's rocket and Starlink Internet services are world changing technologies. It's an awesome company. It's just not a $1.75 trillion company. Musk is thoroughly corrupt, such as bailing out xAI with SpaceX's IPO. Investing in the IPO means investing in the pit of AI, not in rocket launches or Internet service. SpaceX without xAI is worth only a couple hundred billion. Adding xAI doesn't increase this valuation but decreases it.

@Palmviewcapital @CuriousPejjy SpaceX merger not gonna happen. SpaceX IPO may not even happen. Watch this podcaster destroy the SpaceX fantasy world. youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si…

@CuriousPejjy Pretty much a guarantee they’ll be the biggest company in the world. Especially if the SpaceX merger happens.

I would be buying a lot of $TSLA stock if I were you. Nfa.

@BradMunchen SpaceX is egregiously overvalued and is attempting to manipulate the NASDAQ's listing rules to create a squeeze driven by passive investment funds. youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si…

This may be another bad take of mine, but I have a hunch that the SpaceX IPO will disappoint either by being under-subscribed, or plunging after going live. Either way, it should lead to sucking out much of the oxygen in the $TSLA bubble.

@aidanbythebeorh @iliketeslas 99% isn’t close to what’s needed in terms of disengagements. Perhaps you meant to qualify your experience another way?

@iliketeslas I think it is purely a regulatory obstacle at this point -someone who uses fsd for 99% of driving daily.

Ashok taking over Macrohard means that FSD is done. I dont know the exact reason why the roll out hasn’t been wider right now but FSD is solved 100%

@Chansoo @elonmusk Reality: copilot.microsoft.com/shares/CYK8TJZ…

Imagine betting against this today. It's retarded to bet against Elon Musk in 2026. $TSLA @elonmusk

Tesla has bet everything on its vision-only system. So far that bet has not paid off, and there is a good chance that it will never qualify as a Level IV system. Currently, they are behind Waymo and Cruise, which both have demonstrated Level Iv capability. copilot.microsoft.com/shares/CYK8TJZ…

Tesla is probably ~15 years ahead of everyone else. $TSLA @elonmusk

@TheFrogDies @garyblack00 I'll take the under: copilot.microsoft.com/shares/CYK8TJZ…

@garyblack00 Tesla will be launching the cybercab next month there will not be "10 or more" by next month

$TSLA bulls in full attack mode against anyone skeptical of the Cybercab business case. If not selling to consumers, how will $TSLA convince fleet owners/investors to buy $30K Tesla robotaxis with 2 seats, no pedals/steering wheel and commodity autonomous ride hailing that will compete against other autonomous vehicles in the Uber/Lyft networks and which depreciate completely over 5-6 years? Many on X show capacity-based analyses (# trips per week x miles per trip x rev - costs per mile) instead of far more relevant TSLA share-based demand analysis with 10 or more manufacturers all providing unsupervised autonomous ride hailing. My predictions: - TSLA will delay release of Cybercab until late-2026 given regulatory/safety issues. - TSLA will add optional steering wheels and pedals to Cybercabs. - TSLA will add an optional small back seat for those who want seating for 4. - TSLA will sell Cybercabs to investors/fleet owners rather than commit TSLA’s own capital (2M x $30K = $60B/year) vs a 2026 capital budget “in excess of $20B.” trib.al/ve2TbM5

@TheCryptoHubX @garyblack00 Well, the facts show otherwise: copilot.microsoft.com/shares/JoAcUPR…

@garyblack00 Uber/lyft don’t even have concepts at this point, no manufacturing process etc. they are only 10+ years out lol

@daltonbrewer Tesla is behind Waymo and Cruise since both of those companies have demonstrated level IV AV capability and Tesla has not been able to get past level II. copilot.microsoft.com/shares/kf4cGL5…

Everyone is 5-10 years behind Tesla No one is ever catching up Tesla is also accelerating Speed and consistency are everything

@DillonLoomis Tesla does not offer the Texas DMV required level 4 AV capability now and there is significant uncertainty about their ability to deliver that with their current vision-only approach: copilot.microsoft.com/shares/kf4cGL5…

On the state of Tesla's Robotaxi/Ridehail: • I've been banging the drum about this for years - Tesla's north star is actually safety. Until every conceivable edge case (within reason) is being handled confidently, FSD won't scale • Tesla could easily scale right now if it wanted to. Those of us that use it know that outside of navigation/speed/parking annoyances, it's incredible and very safe, safer than most humans. The problem is that every mistake will be amplified and become global news • If Tesla had even a fraction of the documented problems and poor behavior that Waymo had, the service would likely be shut down temporarily by NHTSA due to public/political backlash. Waymo gets white glove treatment and the public doesn't care, this is not the case with Tesla • Whether Tesla starts scaling in April this year or September this year will not matter one bit in the long run • Once Tesla solves it, truly solves it, it will be largely solved everywhere (at least in the states) • If 14.3, the model with more reasoning, does actually have 10x the parameters, it will likely take awhile to test and refine before release. This is likely happening now • The Autopilot team's shift of focus to agentic AI with xAI until the teams are in place and reshuffled could certainly be a reason for the 14.3 delay • Respectfully, if your conclusion is really that Tesla doesn't have the tools to solve FSD and scale, you should not own $TSLA

@tpgoebel I'm sure Elon will give you his usual reassurances, as he has for the past 10 years. Fool me once shame on you, fool me a hundred times and I'm an effing idiot.

@ReadyFireAim4 Ah crap. I will let Elon know that the AI says they are not ready. Thanks man!

My guess is that Tesla is planning for a big splash launch day media event of the Cybercab in Austin. Dozens of CCs will be embarking for pickups from a huge parking lot all at once, starting the transportation revolution. Epic visuals, great for social and other media to spread. BOOM!